The Tulsa Forum by TulsaNow

Well here it is:


http://news.yahoo.com/p-reconsidering-u-downgrade-cnbc-001207261.html

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gXGRCI4tBY[/youtube]

It may have a nasty impact, but philosophically, I can't find room in my heart to give a rat's donkey what the ratings agencies have to say. I'm still stuck on them rating any tranche of a subprime CDO squared AAA. I've noticed some more conspiracy minded folks saying that there's some payola going on. I wouldn't put it past them, given their aforementioned performance issues when large streams of income are at stake, but I've seen no evidence of it.

So it wasn't necessarily obvious during the debt ceiling morass, but having a single credit agency drop the rating by a notch emphasizes more the lack of consensus in rating agencies than it does the credit unworthiness of the US.  If we'd missed the ceiling altogether and all three ratings houses flattened us out, the message and judgement would have been unmistakable.  But one ratings house with questionable math and questionable political motivations doesn't necessarily constitute the total dunning we were expecting.  

So it's bad but not completely awful.  Also, some of the underlying numbers STILL seem to prove that treasuries are the market's safe haven of choice.  One of the pundits on my twitterstream said something to the effect of "where ya gonna go?" re: treasuries and/or dollars and he was totally correct.  China's currency is pegged to the dollar but still floats like the wind; the Euro is on the verge of ripping into fifteen directions; Britain's pound is already mired under several quarters of austerity muck and showing no signs of moving.  Who else is there?  Not the ruble, certainly.

So one bitchy little ratings agency stepping out of line may not do much practically in the long run, but if we're talking about

CONFIDENCE

well, it's kinda hard to look at this and think to yourself that it's morning in America.  It's possible that it's just now twilight.

PS. I reserve the right to rescind whatever cautious optimism I have about this if the market tanks at the beginning of the week.

Currency traders are getting into Yen and trying to get into Swiss Francs, but there aren't enough Francs to matter and flight toward the Yen is tempered somewhat by the Bank of Japan's usual willingness to completely decimate the Yen to keep it cheap relative to the dollar. It's hard to fight and win against a central bank in its own currency.  :P

But yeah, the numbers are pretty clear that absolutely nobody gives a smile about the deficit in the next several years. Real yields are negative out to 7 years right now. (The actual yield is a bit under 2% at 7 years, and less than .5% out to 3 years)

Boy does that sound familiar. Hypocrite.

GET OFF YOUR MEDS! ;D >:(

HERE IT IS!:S&P Cites Tea Party’s Extortion Politics, Which It Calls ‘Political Brinkmanship,’ in Downgrading U.S. Credit Rating
Jon Ponder | Aug. 6, 2011

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2011/08/06/sp-cites-tea-partys-extortion-politics-in-credit-rating-downgrade/

"In explaining why it was lowering the U.S. credit rating late on Friday, Standard & Poor’s singled out tea party obstructionism on the economy:

“The political brinkmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective and less predictable than what we previously believed,” said S&P, one of three leading credit rating agencies.

“The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.”

“Brinkmanship” is a polite term for tea party Republicans’ political extortion tactics during the debt ceiling debate. "

"...falling in line with the corporate media and right-leaning independents who fall back on the laziest of all analyses that both (or all three) parties are to blame — that the hostage negotiators are just as bad as the hostage-takers"
MmmmHmm.

It's hypocritical to state that it's not unreasonable to think that past bad behavior is a predictor of present bad behavior, but there's no public evidence of the present bad behavior? I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Trolling is for clowns, yo. Quit it. 

Oh, okay wevsus, I'll stop trolling just for you. Now, go back to your little nest you have with Nate.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/u-credit-rating-victim-gop-sabotage-021622372.html

"Congressional Republicans deserve much more of the blame. For this calamity was entirely man-made -- even intentional. "

Yeah, Obama and his left Congress runs up the debt to historic levels for 2 years. But its the GOP sticking to its principles and wanting to stop that nonsense for 3 weeks or so which caused the credit rating to fall.  ::). Here is a link to our tax cheat who is the head of our treasury commenting on the risk for a downgrade:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/tim-geithner-in-april-no-risk-of-sp-downgrading-americas-credit/

Dumbass. And on that subject, with the downgrade and the U.S. losing over twenty elite soldiers in Afghanistan, where is our president? Having his one of many "Now watch this drive" moments.

http://www.dallasblog.com/201108051008311/dallas-blog/amidst-obama-depression-president-plays-golf.html

Finally an answer as to why the downgrade happened. It's the damnable constitution. Go to 8:50 and witness why Cokie has that first name.

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/roundtable-politics-economy-14249543

It was the Teabagger/GOP extortionist tactics. Believe whatever your systemic brain warp makes you believe.
S and P has said what caused the down grade and it's consistent with my posts.

You people are crazies. Just ask Governor Christie.....

http://www.politicususa.com/en/rachel-maddow-mtp-debt more proof. This is all YOUR fault. I hope you lose your a$$ Monday.

Everyone. Are we on the verge of an aox/fotd meltdown? Hope so.

Edited to add this link discussing the S&P decision and the left's cherry-picking of its decision.

http://patterico.com/2011/08/07/for-whom-the-downgrade-tolls/

Precisely what I've warned about for some time that our debt was eventually going to be down-graded.  You can't simply keep borrowing without a plan to eventually pare that down and formulating a plan to re-pay it.  No, I'm not gloating either, I'm pissed off that Washington doesn't seem to care.

Next prediction: The downgrade doesn't stop here.  Just wait another 12-24 months as Congress keeps playing it's games and does nothing about spending or reducing the debt.

You better delete that smile. If SWMBO reads it, she'll shoot me.  :P

Jeeebuss Conan, it's not about reducing debt it's about dysfunctional government run by yahoos who link mutually exclusive issues to extort the status quo. Watch, abortion will be your next red herrings bargaining chips ransom.

BTW, PRINT MORE MONEY! JOBS JOBS JOBS.....just ask the Bohner. ;)

Don't blame us for downgrade, says rating agency chief who has a master's in English Lit

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023420/Standard--Poors-chief-John-Chambers-Dont-blame-US-credit-rating-downgrade.html#ixzz1UOSgovtw

"Mr Axelrod called the action 'a tea party downgrade' and says it's clearly on the backs of lawmakers who were willing to see the country default to get their way."


"Gene Sperling, the director of the White House national economic council, called the difference, totalling over $2 trillion, “breathtaking” and said that “the amateurism it displayed” suggested “an institution starting with a conclusion and shaping any arguments to fit it.”

"In the Treasury John Bellows, an acting assistant secretary, raised a concern over S&P’s methodology.
In its analysis, S&P had projected the nation’s debt as a share of gross domestic product to reach 93 per cent by 2021.
That was around 8 percentage points higher than the figure administration officials believed the rating agency should have used — what they're now calling a $2.1 trillion error."


And there's this (see Conan, I at least site where my talking points come from and do not pretend to be an originator of ideas dogma) :ANALYSIS
Why S&P’s Downgrade is No Joke
The real impact of S&P’s downgrade is political, not economic.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/why-s-p-s-downgrade-is-no-joke-20110806

From the source article: "It’s also true that S&P is hardly some kind of Delphic Oracle. It and the other rating agencies were almost criminally negligent about the risks of subprime mortgages during the housing bubble. And it’s not as if S&P told investors anything about U.S. fiscal problems on Friday that they didn’t already know.
So what’s new?

No meltdown here....just Guido et al engaged in their fear driven Kabuchism....why can't you geeks toss down some employment ideas?

I love this, Dimocrats are using the Tea Party for cover.  They refuse to own up to the truth that they, along with enabler Repugnicans, have bought $14 trillion worth of votes over the years and have now dumped this load on the backs of Americans.

They have literally looted the treasury for the last 10 years.

And now Timmay "TurboTax effed me" Geithner says S & P foobared up.  Adding even more bad news, he's now committed to stay with the administration beyond the 2012 election.

While the root cause of the downgrade should have been avoided since 2000.  We had the opportunity to avoid the downgrade.  I believe we wouldn't have been downgraded had Obama's original plan been passed.  

"We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act."  From S&P rationale.  now this isn't just that they wouldn't increase revenue.  Its that their projections included the expiring of the tax cuts.  Which if not done would require more cuts in spending to offset.  Which they didn't do.

"Boehner: I do. When you look at this final agreement that we came to with the white House, I got 98 percent of what I wanted. I'm pretty happy."  -Boehner

So he got 98% of what he wanted, which was about half of what Obama suggested in cuts with no revenue increases.  Which then got us downgraded.  This was what the republican leadership wanted and this is what they got.

During the debt ceiling negotiations, Obama and Dems were on the right track with their $4T in cuts.  Not perfect, but definitely the right track:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/07/28/sp-4-trillion-is-only-start/

the nut:

Here is what laying a smackdown looks like.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1l4_nFe0tY[/youtube]

Just can't watch scripted reality TV

It's not an Obama speech. It's a real CEO breaking her foot off on persons with ZERO business experience.

 . . . which has no bearing whatsoever on how to run the world's largest and most powerful economy.  Ya RLY.

(http://lolmart.com/files/2011/02/ya_rly-owl.jpg)

The head of sovereign ratings at S&P is a guy by the name of David Beers.  He says that the S&P was worried about the "degree of uncertainty around the political policy process. The nature of the debate and the difficulty in framing a political consensus ... that was the key consideration."  He also warned that tax increases would be nice, but are not the key to avoiding future downgrades.  Spending decreases are.  This is because tax increases are not likely to survive future administrations, however spending decreases have a higher chance of sustainability.

With over 10 weeks of warnings ($4 Trillion must be cut) from S&P and both Republicans and Democrats unwilling to give up their little vote purchasing programs. Exactly what we were told would happen happened.  Now we will watch the blame game, but both sides only need to look in the mirror to see who is at fault. 

On the fringes you still see where the problems lie.  Conservative (Tea Party folk), and Libertarians bobble-head nod to more spending cuts and say and ultra progressives say increase spending even more.  The political environment is indeed toxic to the point that all we can do is watch ourselves fall into the abyss.

We are at over 70% debt to GDP now, and they calculate it at 85% to 95% by 2021 depending on if you listen to the S&P or the administration.  It doesn't really matter whether it's a knife wound or bullet wound.  We can argue about transfusions after we stop the bleeding.

And sadly, there are only two things that will help - and it will require both; cut spending and eliminate the Bush tax cuts.  And it may take more tax hikes beyond that.

Actually it does when you consider it takes productivity to generate the revenue needed to keep that economy balanced. 

I don't understand why liberals are sitting around mocking business leaders when those leaders keep stating over and over what it is they need to hire more workers.  This is not all a simple demand issue.

Actually it doesn't when you consider that, in terms of making business decisions, the CEO of a company has far greater power than the President of the United States.  The CEO of a company can remove those people who do not conform to their desired path.  If the CEO wants to sell squishy balls, they can say "I don't care what you say, we are selling squishy balls".  The President can say he wants to do this and do that, but in reality, he can only sign and inact legislation that has been passed by the house and senate.

Nice, we've had quite the productivity gains since Obama was elected. Guess that means he's doing a good job?  ???

Guido, I should be listening to a wedding videographer about economics? One who has been in business for nearly 20 years and employees four people or less? Smack. Down? (I love the smell of astroturf) smile, by that standard you should be listening to me very attentively.

This from ANOTHER person with no real business experience. And while your bring that nonsense up, please list for us the skill set Obama has to run the "world's largest and powerful economy".

1.
2.
3.
.
.
Now take your list and compare it to that female CEO you are running down. Wait a minute, is that what is going on? I love it when ankle biters know more than persons with, oh, EXPERIENCE.

So because someone assumes the title "CEO," they are automatically authoritative on economics? Clearly I need to update my business card.

Me too.. Although I took the title of President instead of CEO.  I guess I should put CEO on my business cards so I can then lead the country.

Hmm. Turns out she's actually a PR hack. Her company is actually named "AMA Enterprises." She claims it was founded in 2002, yet the domain name only dates back to 2010. I don't feel much like digging up the entire back story right now, but it really smells like fake grass in here.

What a happy coincidence that she got some attention from Fox News last year and decided to give her company a website and start a Youtube account all at the same time. I can't say it didn't exist, after all, there's a guy on LinkedIn who claims to have worked there in 2006, but it's all pretty odd looking.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-Rating-Your-money-in-a-hmoney-388856032.html?x=0 (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SP-Rating-Your-money-in-a-hmoney-388856032.html?x=0)

Their take on it.

Interesting line: 

Scripted reality tv > Fox News?

It will probably be better for our relationship with other countries too.  They won't hate us so much now that we're not exceptional. 

That does it Nate. You are the biggest hack in this entire forum. Here is the background on this PR hack:


http://www.womenhomebusiness.com/success/soapworks.htm

Edited to add a CBS story on this "hack", just so you don't think "womenhomebusiness" is somehow connected to Foxnews. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/03/08/earlyshow/contributors/melindamurphy/main678700.shtml

Here is another of her enterprises: http://www.luckynapkin.com/amilya-antonetti.html

There you go your jerk.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCmfHESTOpY&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

That's not going to help Gued.  She's an "entrepreneur," and that's a dirty word. 

She's also a "real" environmentalist (someone who actually does something besides just supporting causes and whining) and she's been on Oprah. . .Ohhhh. . .Ahhhhh!

You running down this woman too Sheen? I guess a woman being a CEO doesn't amount to much.

I think you missed the point I was making.  The government depends on taxes on corporate profits, S-corps, sole proprietorships, etc.,  payroll taxes, as well as individual income taxes to fulfill it's part in the economy (i.e. it taxes productivity in my original post).  Either that or mountains of debt.  Wait...where have I heard that before?

You know what else?  She won:
The Kauffman Foundation Entrepreneur Award
The Wells Fargo Award of Excellence
. . .and her company is listed int the Inc 500.

She leases offices in San Francisco and New York, and pays taxes in both jurisdictions.

Nate must have really done some work to try and frame here as just a noisy female who doesn't know her place.

Yep, she even wrote a book. Doesn't change the fact that the company she identifies herself with on Fox is a PR firm. I didn't realize people were limited to one business at a time? If you read the article you reference, you'd note she "closed" SoapWorks in 2004. If it was such a success, you'd think she'd have sold it, not closed it. By the way, she doesn't run Lucky Napkin, so yeah, her business is marketing. Apparently she's pretty good at it. On LinkedIn, she claims AMA Productions was founded in 2002, but the domain is only a year old. The phone number on said domain comes back to one Anthony Tesoriero. Eventually, I'll track down where the business is registered. I don't have anything better to do this afternoon. :P

   Doctor Bronze Solar Potions Inc.
   254 W. 31st
   7th Floor
   New York, New York 10001
   United States

   Registered through: GoDaddy.com, Inc. (http://www.godaddy.com)
   Domain Name: LUCKYNAPKIN.COM
      Created on: 22-Aug-07
      Expires on: 22-Aug-11
      Last Updated on: 23-Aug-09

   Administrative Contact:
      Tesoriero, Anthony  doc@drbronze.com
      Doctor Bronze Solar Potions Inc.
      254 W. 31st
      7th Floor
      New York, New York 10001
      United States
      (212) 216-0696      Fax -- (516) 908-3519

I will say this for her: She has a great record of running/being associated with "companies" who never update their websites.

Gaspar, which company is listed in the Inc 500Who's Who?

Like this?
(http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/4801336/2/istockphoto_4801336-barefoot-and-pregnant-in-the-kitchen.jpg)

How many companies have you started and how many people have you hired in your career?

Leasing apartments doesn't count.  ;)

Hmm, turns out that SoapWorks was only registered in Arizona from 2001 to 2003, and was dissolved because she didn't pay the fees to keep it active. It was registered on 10/30/2001, but failed to file its first annual report in 8/2002, leading to the corporation's dissolution. Great businesswoman.

Do contractors count, or do they have to be W-2 employees?

Good Lord!  It went from debt to $10 million in 3 years and she sold it to a conglomerate.  In less than 3 years here products were in every grocery in the US and Canada.

Dude, give it up.

LOL, she's delinquent on AMA Productions' annual report again this year. She's really good at filing the paperwork, apparently. Her 60 days expired a few days ago, so she'd better get on the stick.

You got a reference for that, Gassy?

Wow, this thread has a hand-wringing factor of about eleventy billion...

No dumbass, you called her a "PR hack". Period.  Gas and I ripped you on it and you resort to blaming a poorly maintained website and that one of her companies is closed. Here's her linkedin page:

http://www.linkedin.com/in/amilya

And by the way, what's wrong with working in the public relations field? She helps business bring products to market. Oh the horror of that.

And we have a tax cheat at the head of the treasury, so so what if she is late on filings. And by the way, I'd be careful asking ANYONE for a source given your history.

Gas, get ready for the "I hired a neighborhood kid to mow my lawn" or "I hired an HVAC guy to fix my air conditioner" as  contractors he employed.

OK, deadbeat.

You're the one who has claimed for years that people who can't do their paperwork are worthless human beings. (ok, maybe that's an exaggeration, but you certainly have condemned people guilty of paperwork errors, why not this one?)

Why do I need to condemn anyone but YOU in this thread? I posted a video from a very successful businesswomen going after a president that in her opinion/experience has inflicted injury onto the economy. Naturally, your reaction was to don the knee pads and call her a "hack" for no damned reason. You are left scurrying around looking to get a hold of any little thing and say "See, see, she is not a good businessperson". Seriously, late on filings and poor website management? That's the best you can do to discredit her? Palinzing.

Looks like the Senate is going to take a look at S&P.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/175977-senate-banking-looking-into-sap-downgrade

Love this alternative headline given by allah:

Yeah, well, it is extremely disingenuous of her to come forward at this ridiculously late date and start making all these "oh so sincere and intense" protestations.  Where the hell was she in 2001??  Or 1981 for that matter?  Or 1969, when Nixon was doing his thing?  Oh, yeah...she wasn't alive then!  And has no sense or knowledge of history now!

It's all just a bunch of blah blah blah blah blah blah....

LOL, it's not about the website or the filings per se, it's that I don't believe much of her story beyond the fact that The SoapWorks, Inc. once existed and, by her own admission, didn't make much in the way of profit. I guess it just takes more to impress me than it does you. And yeah, I consider it a sign of disorganization when a person is chronically under threat of having their company dissolved because they can't be arsed to do 10 minutes worth of paperwork each year.

If I had wanted to get terribly nitpicky, I would have pointed out that she isn't in fact the CEO of AMA Productions. She's the President. ;)

FWIW, I did finally get California's idiotic website to bring up SoapWorks. It was registered there prior to moving to Arizona, it turns out.

W-2. 

Anecdotal knowledge of business is not even close to the reality of running your own business or managing a business for someone else: hiring, managing, firing, and laying off people, keeping up with any number of legal requirements, filings, managing inventory, assets, etc. 

According to this link she is 42, although I don't know how accurate that is. My guess is she may be a bit older.

http://www.nicolewilliams.com/community/living-the-dream-amilya-antonetti

So in 2001, that would make her 32 (or a bit older) and running Soapworks. In 1981, she would have been about 12. Next dumb@ssed question.

Still running away from your idiotic "PR hack" crap. You suck. Moving on.

Oh, too bad. My (former) 1099 contractors will be sad to learn they don't count.  :P

Guido, I stand by my PR hack assessment.

Anyway, back to the topic instead of Mrs. Soap and myself: Why are Treasury yields way down and the stock market in the tank if the problem is Obama? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Even skyrocketing yields and a tanking stock market would make sense if the Government's balance sheet is the problem.

Wow, awesome retort...I can pair you up with my 7 year old nephew if you need pointers.

Close. It's going to be "My boss had me hire a dry-wall guy once, and we hire people to paint and carpet all the time."

But that's Ok.  We can leave him alone now.  He has proven his, and our points from their respective vantage points. 

Ahhh....poor little guido....got his panties in a wad 'cause he is always so wrong....

As always, completely missing the point.  At ANY point during the last 10 years, she could...and SHOULD have come forward and said something.  This type of thing is something that should have been complained about continuously without end.  But then, that doesn't play to the audience by the script, does it?

See you and raise you:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stlOnOtwPKo[/youtube]

Hey, Gassy! You know Warren Buffett also agrees with your sig. ;)

Of course, he may just be hurt by being downgraded himself..

Edited to add: I'd still like to know why it is investors are flocking to US Government debt and away from equity in private companies if the public sector is the problem. I thought the invisible hand of the free market knows all?

Let's see, what do ESS and PEA stand for?

They, in their stupidity, waited until now? Why didn't they do it when the GOP/Teabaggers were doing their extortion? THAT would have sent the stupid congress people a warning. Instead, we get put in a downward spiral by a rating agency that missed rating all derivatives in the Bush era.

The problem is the real economy. We need to grow out of this mess and increase tax RECEIPTS. QE3 won't do much....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1NagON189g&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
 Geeebuss....

Bahahahaha

David Frum says:


Bloomberg has quite the hit piece out on S&P:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/s-p-seen-surrendering-to-tea-party-at-expense-of-u-s-taxpayer.html


Speculation is that S&P downgraded as a hedge against their own reputation being completely destroyed in another big AAA meltdown, not because it's the right rating.

That's a very clear-eyed description by Mr. Frum.  He's one of those guys, like Christie, whom I disagree strongly with but appreciate the fact that we seem to inhabit the same factual universe.  Maybe I'm just nostalgic, though, for the old lineGOP.

More fun:

http://www.observer.com/2011/08/airplane-flying-banner-by-s-p-offices-thanks-for-the-downgrade-you-should-all-be-fired/

Let's just hope some lone nut-job doesn't see fit to try and fly his plane into the offices of S & P

Not as good as Hitler's take, well maybe it is.  John Stewart as usual is funny and on the mark.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/mad-as-hell-dylan-ratigan-goes-on-epic-rant-over-trillions-extracted-from-u-s/