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Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 15, 2008, 08:38:46 pm This is an interesting primary state. Nevada has many unique challenges, including the loosest morals of any state and the most newcomers in the last decade.
I predict that McCain wins, with Guliani barely beating out Romney and Huckabee for second, third and fourth. The lack of evangelicals makes Huckabee fourth here. Romney may get enough bounce from Michigan to make it into second. It will still be close, with all four candidates getting between 15% and 25% of the vote. I think Obama will beat out Hillary with Edwards third on the democratic side, but again I think they will all be with ten points of each other. The message from Nevada is that nothing is decided for either party. Everybody is still alive heading for both parties to South Carolina. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 18, 2008, 10:06:23 am Hillary has pulled even with Obama in Nevada as of today.
This race is the most interesting one so far. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: we vs us on January 18, 2008, 10:56:22 am quote: I agree with you on every point except Giuliani. I think his campaign is more dead in the water than anyone knows. It's certainly almost out of cash. Here's my suggestion for the line up: McCain wins, Romney places, Huck shows, with Ron Paul following closely behind (yeah, I know . . . but i think he could have a strong showing in Nevada, which strikes me as more libertarian than the midwest or northeast). For the dems, of course, it's an Obama/Hillary toss up with Edwards right behind. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 18, 2008, 12:13:15 pm Whoooooaaaaa Dems! The Clintonistas attempt to suppress the Culinary Workers Union failed, but why even go there? That was an amazing little manuever! Disenfranchising an entire union because they will not commit to you? Amazing!
Title: Nevada Primary Post by: we vs us on January 18, 2008, 12:28:25 pm quote: Yeah, I guess it's not so pretty is it? In this dem's opinion, the Clintons have become largely what they used to be putatively fighting against, which is the establishment. Which in a sense is a testament to their success, but also proves that the slope is slippery. I really used to be a huge supporter of the Clintons, and even now Hillary seems to me to bring some important skills to the table. I would still be happy with her as our president. But the way they're playing the game of late is putting me off my cookies. "Win at any cost," isn't my idea of how to compete within your party. That burns too many bridges. But then, I'm a sucker for inclusion and consensus; there's a reason I'm not in politics. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: FOTD on January 18, 2008, 01:16:14 pm Those cork soaker Clintonistas suck!
http://satiricalpolitical.com/?p=1379 "Vegas Strippers Seek Right to Caucus at Their Workplace" Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 18, 2008, 01:39:49 pm Giuliani and Thompson are clearly dropping fast. Giuliani has dropped from 18% to 6% in just a week and Thompson from 11% to 8% in the same time period.
I still pick McCain, with Romney second and Huckabee third. Romney has to win Nevada to be seen as a national candidate. I understand he has spent millions there this week. If McCain wins both Nevada and South Carolina, he will have momentum heading into Florida. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: EricP on January 18, 2008, 06:42:20 pm Ugh, please no McCain. Am I the only one in the world who watches him consistently speak to please whatever audience he is in front of, contradicting himself as many times as necessary? People called Kerry a flip flop but this guy is absolutely ridiculous. It would appear he has absolutely no beliefs of his own.
Title: Nevada Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 19, 2008, 08:43:17 am quote: I find it odd that a man who spent five years being tortured by Asian commies never addresses the Yellow Peril. And if I hear him say 'My friends . . .' again I will scream. Wait, what is that I hear? AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH! Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 19, 2008, 09:16:52 am Romney has had a good week in Nevada polls and now looks like the clear front-runner.
It is probably all on looks. He is a close the republicans will ever have to a Vegas showgirl. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 19, 2008, 09:56:45 am Romney's encounter with the AP reporter was telling. He is disciplined to a fault, and has difficulty connecting emotionally. Where Reagan would give a smile and disarm the confrontation, Romney got all huffy like Bush would.
Man, oh, man, though, disenfranchising fellow union sisters and brothers because they support the O. What is that about? Creepy. Glad that would never happen here! Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 19, 2008, 11:49:44 am That is an overstatement of Hillary's intent.
They have never allowed caucuses inside of casinos before. After Obama got the endorsement of the culinary union, they requested permission to have them there. Hillary protested, but lost out. I am not a big Hillary supporter (unless she is the Democratic nominee), but having caucuses in casinos does seem odd. Politics is a gamble, but casinos are so separate from reality that there could be problems with what happens in them, real or perceived. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: akupetsky on January 19, 2008, 01:06:07 pm quote: Actually, the campaigns had already agreed on the caucus plan, it was who would get the union endorsement that wasn't clear. After Obama got the endorsement, the Clinton supporters sued: (from WSJ blog) Judge Upholds Nevada’s Casino Caucuses June Kronholz reports from Las Vegas on the presidential race. A federal judge’s ruling that Nevada Democrats can hold nine caucuses in Las Vegas Strip casinos Saturday is seen as a boost to Sen. Barack Obama, and a PR blooper for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Ruling from the bench after a two-hour hearing, Judge James Mahan said the state’s Democrats “have a First Amendment right to association, to assemble and to set their own rules.” The ruling came after the state teacher’s union attempted to stop the casino caucuses, arguing that workers in other parts of the state wouldn’t have the same opportunity to caucus on the job. It also argued that the nine Las Vegas caucuses would send up to 10 times as many delegates to the county convention — the next level in a complicated nomination process — as a neighborhood caucus that attracts the same number of participants. The decision is seen as good news for Obama, who won the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents many of the hotel workers on the Strip, and they’re expected to account for most of the casino-caucus participants. Just days after that endorsement, the teachers union filed the suit. A new poll by the Reno Gazette Journal shows the three Democrats, Clinton, Obama and John Edwards, in a dead heat here. Obama led the poll with 32% to 30% for Clinton and 27% for Edwards. Popularity counts less in a caucus than in a primary, though, and what will decide the outcome is how successful the campaigns are at turning out their supporters. That magnifies the importance of the endorsement of the Culinary Workers, who are an organizing force here with 60,000 members in Las Vegas. Clinton has largely claimed ignorance of the teachers union suit, but her husband, former President Bill Clinton, was angry at suggestions that her campaign was behind the caucus challenge. The teachers union hasn’t endorsed Clinton, but many of its members support her. The campaigns had signed-off on the caucus rules last March, and all of them had angled for the Culinary Workers’ endorsement. President Clinton seemed to endorse the suit today by insisting that the “rules ought to be the same for everybody.” But political observers here see the suit as sour grapes because it was filed it only after the Clinton campaign didn’t receive the Culinary Workers’ support. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: inteller on January 19, 2008, 03:58:23 pm doesnt matter anyways...hillary won. As usual, the union did NOT speak for its members with the endorsement.
Title: Nevada Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 19, 2008, 05:12:07 pm The unions clearly do not have the power they used to...at least for endorsements. The unions still can mobilize workers to canvass, make signs, pack a room, etc.
There were nine big casino caucuses and Hillary won seven of them today. Hillary works her campaign well. She won in Nevada based on groundwork laid months ago. Almost all the elected democrats in the state endorsed her. I don't want to hear the pundits say it was because she cried. The real story of Nevada is the big Romney win. Money matters and he spent lots there. Ron Paul gets a big boost by finishing second and Huckabee gets embarrassed by finishing fifth. I am guessing church values aren't as important to Nevada residents as they are in the south. McCain finished third in Nevada, but national polls now have him in the lead among republicans. This race is about getting delegates now. Every delegate counts and I now predict both conventions to start without a sure fire winner. A brokered convention that might take vote after vote before a winner is declared will be fascinating television. The republican and democrat conventions will be the reality tv show of the year. Candidates will stay in the race just to keep getting a few delegates in each state. Delegates will be a currency for issue positions and appointments both. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: inteller on January 19, 2008, 08:47:53 pm quote: no, McCain is going to take Florida that will show without a doubt he is the real deal. Romney will just blow away in the wind with the rest of his cash. Expect a McCain Thompson ticket. That kind of ticket will devastate anything that the Dems can dredge up. Two reganesque people going up against some turds with no military experience? The Dems will get slaughtered....only way they could win is if Hillary takes Ron Paul as a running mate. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: HazMatCFO on January 20, 2008, 07:46:52 am I predict when Edwards drops out, most of his supporters turn to Barack Obama. I just don't see people who think the Iraq war was a bad decision voting for someone who voted for it in 2002. Once the Edwards voters turn to Obama, then watch the sparks fly between the Barack and Hillary camps.
I sense the Clinton camp has a neutron bomb somewhere down the road if she gets into trouble as they keep on claiming Mr. Barack Obama hasn't been fully vetted yet. Title: Nevada Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 20, 2008, 07:52:50 am quote: As long as all that is legal I wish the strippers would organize unions, along with culinary workers and every other member of the working poor. I think it is great that dreamy Barack won the delegates even if Clinton won the popular vote. I think the tightness of either Party's race is a good thing, and tells us that the Establishment does not have a lock on the will of their respective grassroots (if you remember how little I think of political parties, that is quite the compliment.) Title: Nevada Primary Post by: FOTD on January 20, 2008, 10:57:20 am quote: Weighted, Barack actually won the most delegates thanks to the Union power. Onto the south. If Billary wins there, you will hear more from Mayor Bloomberg.... Title: Nevada Primary Post by: inteller on January 21, 2008, 09:20:28 am no we already have enough hot air. He can keep his mouth shut.
Title: Nevada Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 21, 2008, 06:18:44 pm From DailyKOS (http://"http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/19/162953/644/790/439573"):
"After being a part of this campaign, doing this work, and seeing this level of viciousness from a supposedly Democratic candidate, it will be a cold day in hell before I do any work for anyone in any way associated with Hillary Clinton. At this point, even my general election vote is in question. I am furious almost to the point of nausea. There are so many young, idealistic activists here who are absolutely crushed--not because we lost here, but because of the way we "lost." Disillusionment is running extremely high--and I doubt very much of many of them will be back in 2008, or ever again. Illegal and immoral campaign tactics like this aren't just reprehensible: they also come at a cost to the party in the long run. "Leaving behind the triangulating, DLC politics of the Clintons, this crap leaves me with just one question: with Democrats like these, who needs Republicans?" (emph in orig) Title: Nevada Primary Post by: inteller on January 21, 2008, 08:26:41 pm quote: well, there is their problem, young and idealistic. welcome to politics. This isn't a grade school playground. |