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Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 16, 2008, 08:41:33 am Nevada is a caucus, South Carolina is a primary. I think South Carolina can become the real trendsetter this month and the winners will have momentum going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
Obama wins easily in South Carolina. There is a large African American population in the state and Obama has spent considerable money there. Hillary finishes second and Edwards, although a southerner, still gets just under 20% of the vote. I predict a McCain win with Huckabee second and Thompson and Romney just behind for thrid and fourth. Romney has finished no worse than second so far and a third or fourth place here would spell trouble. Huckabee is the surprise, with evangelicals coming to the polls in surprisingly large numbers. This is also where Thompson has to make a move. He too is a southerner and if he can't get 20% here, he can't anywhere. Look for Giliani to be pressured to get out, but he has put everything into Florida and will stay till then. Florida is wide open, with four republican candidates with three points of each other. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: we vs us on January 16, 2008, 09:16:21 am SC is a momentum moment for Huckabee, as well. It will prove whether his Iowa win was a fluke or if he's a bona fide phenomenon. A goodly amount of evangelicals down there. I'm not sure that McCain will get much support there, either; SC, after all, was where Bush's campaign smeared him so successfully in 2000 that he had to quit the race soon after. I'm assuming that at least some of that memory is still around. Romney, because he's slick and because he's a Mormon, does as well as can be expected in the Deep South. I pick Huck for the win, McCain will place, and Romney will show. Everyone else is below the fold.
And yeah, it's Obama's to win. The Clinton campaign, IMO, made a serious mistake all last week in fighting with Obama over race. I'm not sure how they EXPECTED that to turn out, but from the coverage I've seen, it's just shoring up his rep and undermining theirs. And Edwards remains, as he has up till now, in third place. So my question is, why does the MSM give Edwards such respect? His numbers don't really seem that great on paper, and yet they're giving him some serious leverage (look at the three-man debate last night). Or has the media decided that the top three of each party get attention and everyone else gets ignored? Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 16, 2008, 10:02:03 am McCain is the choice for the republicans this year. They know they are going to get beat in November, but with John McCain, they will lose with respect.
As Richard Reeves put it, he is the perfect candidate for a dying party. The other guys will still be around for the new and improved republican party that rises from the ashes of the fire that has been George Bush. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: we vs us on January 16, 2008, 10:07:29 am quote: Excellent, excellent point. Now if only the rest of the party will go that quietly, cf. Huckabee, Paul, et.al. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: rwarn17588 on January 16, 2008, 10:54:00 am I dunno, man ... I think Romney's going to be the guy to beat for the GOP nom.
McCain just doesn't do that well in gaining the vote of hard-care Republicans. Romney being the front-runner is indicative how weak the GOP field is, however. Romney has a lot of credibility problems, and I swear he sounds like a robot when he talks. You have to look hard to see any soul there. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: spoonbill on January 16, 2008, 03:46:03 pm I don't think McCain has much of a chance with Republicans. He's not a real Republican or a Conservative. No Republican is going to forget what he did through campaign finance reform bill, that made it so that only the most wealthy can run for office.
I think Romney may be the real candidate and I also think the Huckabee is being underestimated. All it takes is a good debate to turn the tides. On the Democrat side, I think Obama is going to crush Clinton. She is not accustom to playing nice. Obama seems to be very good at the passive aggressive thing, and with this MLK issue he's made here look like an idiot (or I should say, that she's made herself look like an idiot). (http://www.thatpoliticalblog.com/serendipity/uploads/images/scaryhillary.jpg) At the end of the day on the Dem's side, it will come down to emotion. Come on, why can't you guys vote for Dennis? He's got a hot wife! Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: Hawkins on January 16, 2008, 04:24:14 pm So McCain is this election's Bob Dole?
I can see that. I'm also of the opinion that the Republicans stand little-to-no chance of holding onto the White House this time around. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: inteller on January 18, 2008, 10:05:47 am quote: sorry, but in this post 9/11 world, people are not going to elect a pres without military experience. McCain is going to end up in the White House. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: we vs us on January 18, 2008, 10:30:44 am quote: Well, at least he'll end up as the (R) candidate. Hate to say, it, though. Barring an October style surprise, this is the Dem's year. Pretty much all the data points indicate that D's have the interest, activism, and candidates to make this a watershed year. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 19, 2008, 08:58:05 pm As I predicted, McCain wins, Huckabee is second and Thompson beating out Romney for third.
Giuliani finishes sixth, with only half the votes of Ron Paul. How does Giuliani stay around and get any money? Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: inteller on January 19, 2008, 09:15:15 pm when thompson drops out and throws his support behind mccain, it will devestate guilliani and he'll lose florida, and will quit.
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: we vs us on January 19, 2008, 10:20:56 pm quote: Giuliani has to stay in through Feb 5, if only to validate his strategy. He'll lose big, though, and will be out at that point. From what I've read, as far as cash goes, he's running on fumes at this point. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: pmcalk on January 22, 2008, 08:43:54 am Who caught the SC debates last night?
Even though I don't like the candidates going negative, I think Obama was right to challenge Clinton and her false statements about his records. Lately, I think the Clintons have been adopting the "Karl Rove" approach to campaigning. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: waterboy on January 22, 2008, 08:53:12 am quote: I turned the channel and caught the exchange about WalMart and Revco. My wife and I both laughed out loud. Our take was that either one of them proved they have the grit to run against a Karl Rove advised Republican. Neither flinched, neither backed down and both were prepared. Edwards was screwed, blued, tatooed. Of course the press didn't see it that way. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: pmcalk on January 22, 2008, 09:33:41 am ^I agree. One of the concerns about Obama has been that he's too nice, that he's naive when it comes to politics and couldn't stand up to Republicans. Last night, he showed that he can push back when he needs to.
But I actually thought Edwards did all right last night. I thought he did better than he has in the past. He did better than Clinton, IMO. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: waterboy on January 22, 2008, 10:03:46 am quote: They are saying he actually won the debate for what that's worth. But the press was all about Clinton/Obama so in effect they won. Edwards may gain strength in the backstretch as people realize that they are electing BOTH Clintons. That will be polarizing and we've had 8 years of that stuff. Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama ticket would be powerful. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: inteller on January 22, 2008, 10:19:43 am quote: I could support an Edwards/Obama ticket. I could not support it the other way around. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 22, 2008, 10:49:40 am Obama has sure seemed to whine a lot about how his opponent distorts.
He plays the victim card quickly, but it seems to always make the news so it must be working for him. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 22, 2008, 11:21:40 am I thought it was funny how O was making The Witch's eyeballs pop out of her head during last night's debate. Do not agree he was whining, he destroyed Hillary on every level last night.
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: inteller on January 22, 2008, 11:50:41 am quote: he whined so he wouldn't have to talk about issues. Edwards stayed above it all and talked about issues that people want to hear. Too bad he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: pmcalk on January 22, 2008, 12:40:42 pm quote: I don't think Obama has ever portrayed himself as a victim--something I truly respect him for. Clinton is the one that cried. Perhaps he wouldn't complain so much if Clintons didn't distort so much. I don't see the same issues between he and Edwards. I am glad that Edwards hasn't stooped to Karl Rove like tactics. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: jne on January 22, 2008, 07:03:49 pm I missed the debate - completely forgot. I think I was distracted by American Gladiators. Anybody have a link to a vid of the debate?
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: pmcalk on January 22, 2008, 07:14:12 pm I believe you can download it off of CNN.
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: tim huntzinger on January 22, 2008, 07:26:39 pm C-span has the entire debate on RealPlayer, (http://"http://www.c-span.org/") YouTube has cuts (http://"http://youtube.com/results?search_query=south+carolina+debate+cnn+obama+clinton&search=Search"), and CNN has podcasts/downloads. (http://"http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/21/videos.debate/index.html") Worth every second!
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: jne on January 22, 2008, 10:23:04 pm Thanks, found it here: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/21/videos.debate/index.html
Now that was nasty! Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 26, 2008, 08:59:08 pm Obama sure did well in South Carolina tonight.
I predicted Edwards would get just under 20% and he got 18%. I thought Obama would win easily, but was a little surprised that he got 55%. Almost every black person in South Carolina is a democrat and I think Obama has energized them to vote like never before. I think that bodes well for democratic candidates in the state in 2008, even if Obama isn't on the national ticket. Twice as many democrats voted tonight than voted in the election four years ago. Obama also stands out from candidates from both parties in his pure stature and speech. He can communicate like few I have heard in my life, inspiring an amazing number of people of all races and both genders to suddenly stop and listen. His speech tonight was not the best I have heard from him, but it was mighty fine. Edwards did a good speech tonight. He stays on point, fighting for the underpriviledged. I like the him the most of any of the three democrats, mostly because I really believe in that simple message. Yes, there are many issues; the war, the economy, health care, etc., but I want a President who fights for the people who could never be president. Maybe I am just a starry-eyed dreamer, but I believe him. I just can't believe that in the most powerful nation in the world, we have so many Americans so poor. Hillary really gave up on South Carolina, sending her husband there and only showing up at the last minute. I think she just saved her money and energy. She made a point in leaving, doing her live "concession" speech from Nashville. She barely mentioned South Carolina, focusing her words on some dream of what our future can be. Her speech was underwhelming tonight, speaking softly, and only really doing well in her closing remarks. She is going to be so far ahead in delegates after Super Tuesday, winning big in California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Missouri, and Tennessee. All she has to do is stay out of trouble for the next nine days. That won't be easy, especially with a husband she can't muzzle. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: FOTD on January 26, 2008, 09:01:23 pm quote: Wanna bet..... Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 26, 2008, 09:52:02 pm Sure.
I bet that Hillary wins every state I mentioned. I bet she is ahead after Super Tuesday in delegates. Wadda ya want to bet? Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: FOTD on January 26, 2008, 09:56:54 pm quote: I bet if you're right, the next 4 years will be awful. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: RecycleMichael on January 26, 2008, 10:05:23 pm Way to step up.
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: USRufnex on January 27, 2008, 06:44:19 pm quote: "a little surprised" ??? -- yeah, kinda like "a little bit pregnant." Clinton's people would have proclaimed any win by Obama of under 10% to be a victory... for Hillary. Obama's people would have considered double-digits a huge win. Obama won by 28%, more than doubling Hillary's vote totals... Slick Willie tried to play the race card, and lost. Hillary tried to compare Obama to MLK in that King needed LBJ to get his agenda passed... then Bill compares Obama to Jesse Jackson... Bill's really screwed up; after he did that, it pi$$ed off the black vote and also motivated more whites to vote for Obama. Polls the week before the primary indated Obama only had 10% of white voters; after Bill Clinton played the Jesse Jackson=Barack Obama card? Obama gets 24% of the white vote. Excellent speech in winning. And pointing out the divisive politics of the Clintons. Bill Clinton is destined to become Hillary's Karl Rove... he just can't help himself. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: FOTD on January 28, 2008, 12:29:55 am quote: Doesn't look good. But Obama's standing among whites in the southern state had plunged 10 percent in just one week, despite his efforts to portray himself not simply as an African-American candidate, but as someone with cross-racial appeal. A Wall Street Journal/ NBC poll also had troubling signs for Obama, showing Clinton now leads the Democratic race nationally among white Americans 53 percent to 24 percent, compared to a 40-23 percent margin last month. The Clintons shamefully positioned Obama as a "Black Candidate" to appeal subtly to race-based voting, and apparently they have shamelessly succeeded. Obama will not hit back that "she's" an old nag. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: cannon_fodder on January 28, 2008, 10:41:21 am Nor did he snipe back "oh, you want to talk about dirty campaign money?"
Or how about when she pointed out that Obama billed 5 hours to some slum lord as an associate (read: get cases assigned to him) - and Obama did not reply "Was that while you were a corporate attorney on the board of directors of Wal-mart?" Or as she continues to point out his "lack of experience" he could as easily point out that he has held elected office longer than her. (she proclaims "35 years of experience" which takes her all the way back to law school). People who were wary of Hillary now overtly hate her. I know of no converts to the Hillary wagon. Her entire platform is "I'm married to Bill" (literally, she has next to no real policy) and that may be enough to get her to the nomination, but it's probably not enough to make the final grade. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: FOTD on January 28, 2008, 11:25:22 am I was speaking about the gender issue....not debate points already made.
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: spoonbill on January 28, 2008, 12:59:27 pm I love it! I love it! I love it! I love it! I love it! I love it!
Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: restored2x on January 28, 2008, 01:21:24 pm quote: Wow. Great insight. So, they basically took the race-risk, gave up SC, because a racial polarization would work to their advantage on Super Tuesday. Makes me feel really crappy inside. Ain't politics wonderful? Manipulating people based on fear and bigotry. Inspiring people to hate. And this is the Democratic Party. The Clintons. The black man's friend. The poor man's friend. How can people continue to support this kind of thing? If she wins the nomination and the presidency, we have a lot to look forward to. Or maybe backward to. I know all politics is nasty politics - but dayum! Tell me it ain't so. Title: South Carolina Primary Post by: FOTD on January 28, 2008, 01:28:27 pm YOU GOT IT!
Even Ted Kennedy can't stomach it! Billary is bad....and the repugs know even if they have a far more inferior candidate, they can beat her. They can't Obama which is why you are starting to see some swift boating aimed at him. |