Obama already tested... (Russia)

[cannon_fodder]

In his State of the Nation address Putin the president of Russian (whatever his name is) failed to mention Obama in any way.  He has not called to congratulate him.  State media has basically ignored the election.

He did, however, cancel disarmament plants and order the deployment of new missiles into Europe:http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5090077.ece

Now, if you were interested in solving the problem, wouldn't you talk to the new president before taking aggressive action the very day he is elected?

For anyone not in the know, our economic "crisis" is a joke compared to Russia.  The country has taken control of most oil and gas resources and milked them, with the decrease in oil and gas they have lost their primary bargaining chip.  The aggregate stock index is down nearly 60%.

What does a powerful central government do when everything else is going to hell? Distraction.  The more powerful the central government (say they control all media outlets), the more effective and likely the move is.

I predict serious saber rattling by Russia.

[TheArtist]

That country is a mess.  They are immature and insecure. They as in, most of the people, the politics, finances, government, elected officials, etc. Those 2 facts color every decision and action they take, plus how they see every action that others take. No matter what we or the rest of the world does, the Russians are going to react as the bully who is really immature and insecure. Simple, regrettable, fact. It will take time for them to "grow up" find a place of pride and self worth, self security, within themselves and the world. We and the rest of the world have to essentially be the example and mature adult. Understanding that they are going to make big mistakes, say stupid things, push the limits, etc. Just as any "teen" would in this stage. We also have to draw the lines and make limits, set the example, treat them with respect and dignity through all their mistakes, tantrums, etc. In other words we have to be the parent to their "teenageness". (yes, an immature, insecure, bully teen with a power complex and nuclear weapons) We can argue that its not the way it should be, but its the way I see that it is. We also need to encourage Russia and its people to "find" themselves, who they are, their own sense of (healthy) pride and self worth... its in our interest to do so, because until they do, they will remain an insecure, immature mess.  

[we vs us]

Well, "already tested" is a bit of a stretch.  Obama won't take power till January, but I take your meaning.  Medvedev sees the opening (the start of Bush's official lame duck period) and is playing it for what he can get.  

I think Medvedev and Putin are pushing until they get pushed back on. Russia is an aggressive pot-raiser, just like North Korea is, and Putin doesn't hesitate to go all-in.  

I don't think that means military action, but it might mean sanctions, or more inclusion (into the Eurozone?  into NATO? don't know exactly, but the whole "keeping your enemies closer" adage springs to mind). The question though is what do they want?  Is it something that can be accomodated as a win-win for the US or Europe?  Or does it a zero sum game that Russia wants to play?  

Bush uses any sort of diplomacy so sparingly that we don't know much about what Russia wants. So a lot of Russia's bellicosity seems to be without reason, and hence only solvable with force. Kind of limiting, in the end, when there're rightly many more options we can turn to.

[waterboy]

We're so egocentric. I haven't seen China's response, or Venezuela or Cuba. The one common thread to each of those is that they are egocentric as well. Like Artist noted, they're more like teenagers and perhaps they are a bit jealous of any attention being paid to a fellow competitor and a bellicose one at that (for the last decade anyway).

Russia will take advantage of this lame duck period. So will other countries. They all need to feed their populations or be overthrown. Once the rest of the world takes the measure of the new administration and determines whether we will provide some economic answers, the playing field will be marked off and referees appointed. I think thats what Biden was ineptly trying to say.

[cannon_fodder]

China:
"In a new historical era, I look forward to taking our bilateral relationship of constructive co-operation to a new level."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7710239.stm

Venezuela:
"Chavez said it was no small thing for an African-American to attain the U.S. presidency, and expressed his willingness to talk with Obama if the Democratic candidate wins."
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-11/05/content_10309567.htm

Cuba:
"Fidel Castro says Barack Obama is smarter and less warlike than John McCain"  (clearly did not call and congratulate as we have no relations)
- - -

Generally nations call to congratulate a new head of state. We do it too.  If not, at least they are recognized in a speech.  Particularly when the apparent issue is a particular military project taken on my a highly militaristic outgoing president and the new president is seen as an opposite in that regard.  One would think the logical thing would be to at least mention it!

I'm not saying they are doing this BECAUSE of Obama, Artist's analysis is pretty much spot on.

And egocentric has nothing to do with it really.  It is not for brevities sake I was looking for a reference. It is an indication of respect and position - they neither respect the US leader nor hold him in a position of any authority.  Like it or not, the U.S. president is probably the most important man in the world.  Economically, politically, and militaristicly the US is far and away the leader and hence, the president has enormous influence.  Acknowledging that influence is not ego.

I fall back, yet again, on what the Artist said.

[waterboy]

Nor do I disagree with Artist and said so. If you have experience with teenagers you know earning their respect is a difficult task. They are the children and the adults are the ones who must build rapport. Same with nations. Many responsible, mature nations know it is respectful and self serving to welcome a new leader. The troubled ones do not.

If your point is that Russia will be a problem of serious magnitude, agreed. If you think its because they didn't acknowledge respectfully, I disagree. Thats just being egocentric. Are we a player? Yeah. Whether we think Obama is the most important person in the world and whether he actually is one of several (those who control nukes) is the reality. Russia has serious problems with our country period. Remarks made during the Georgia episode haven't been forgotten or forgiven.

all countries responded?

[cannon_fodder]

Look at it this way waterboy...

Georgia invaded South Ossetia because the US made them do it.

Russia will retain it's missile arsenal because the US did not listen to them.

Russia beefed up military spending because the US has expanded NATO.

Russia poisoned opposed the Ukrainian president because he wanted closer ties with the US.

Russia is moving missiles into Eastern Europe because the US is building a defensive shield.

Russia's economy is in the crapper because the US dragged them down.
- - -

The speech is one big "everything that is wrong is because of the US" whine.  I'd venture to say the U.S. President is of some global importance in Russia.  Or anywhere for that matter.

You can pretend it is egocentric if you want, but pretending that the United States is not a global hegemon is sticking your head in the sand.  By extension, the US president is the most important person in the world.  I'm not saying he is the only person that matters, just that he is THE MOST important.

Who else would it be?

The Pope?
The UN Secretary?  
The rotating EU chairmen?
Fidel Castro?

Simply because a fact is self-centric does not mean it is any less true.  If the King of England was the most powerful man, I'd say so.  But currently, that is just not the case.

[mrburns918]

Wow, I guess Something About Mary Pearly White Joe Biden was right.

Mr. Burns

[Conan71]

First words out of President Obama's mouth when he gets his first national security briefing:

"NO SH!T?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!"

Glad it's not me waking up in the White House on the morning of Jan. 21, 2009.

[cannon_fodder]

Russian markets are down another 20% this week, trading was halted today.  The Rubble is a controlled currency, but with the threat of default they lowered the value of their own currency today.  Significant fears cited for the worse-than-world average performance is the underlying interference of government in the economy and over reliance on oil revenue:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fee36c42-b0e3-11dd-8915-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1