Major Tornados Tonight

[Gaspar]

From Meteorologist Arron Tuttle's Facebook:

MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IMMINENT!!! (Please Share)

I don't often get worked up over events. There are times when all of the parameters are there and very little happens, generally because the models underestimate the CAP strength which prevents thunderstorm development. You better pray they aren't estimating this one correctly because the rest of the ingredients are all there for large damaging tornadoes between the hours of 6pm and midnight across C OK. This includes the greater OKC metro area. I hate seeing this. That said, I want each of you to take this seriously. Don't panic, have a plan, you can and will survive tornadoes as long as you take shelter. Keep your weather radios and smartphone apps ready. Remember, once tornadoes start moving into the city, cell phone networks will become overloaded so getting out phone calls and weather data will be stressed, text messages are better. If destruction happens and that is a very high possibility, then communication is severed. It is hard to remove emotion when I see the environment set up like this knowing that another Moore-like event is about to unfold. Now that I have your attention here is the forecast below.

A dryline sets up again just to the west of OKC near Weatherford this afternoon. A weak cold front outflow approaches from the north and sets up near Guthrie to Kingfisher. Storms will fire along both boundaries by 5pm. A region of low pressure will eject from the S TX panhandle into WC OK during the late evening hours. This forces the surface winds up to 2,000 to back to the east while the winds above curve to the west. In addition after 6pm the low level jet increases those winds speeds to 50 kts above ground causing the shear values to approach helicity values of 800 which is off the scale. With instability remaining extremely high as CAPE values peak around 6,000 earlier in the afternoon, the stage is set for near dark and nighttime tornadoes across C OK through midnight. I see more of a May 3rd, 1999 type event with slow moving tornadoes and numerous ones, several EF3s to 5. It's hard to imagine that this is what the data shows. So what needs to happen to prevent this? Read next paragraph.

So tornadic conditions are maximized across C OK. That doesn't mean other areas of the state especially E of I-35 or S OK won't see them, anywhere is fair game. So, if we can get storms to form early, say by 3pm and move through C OK before the better shear gets in place any tornado threat will be minimized as much as possible considering the environment. Also, if we can get a cluster of storms to form along the boundary to the north and those move south that helps a little too. Anything to prevent storms from becoming isolated from the others. Finally if we can get a big cluster of storms to form across S/SC OK that can disrupt the air to the north across the metro reducing instability and causing subsidence and messing up the low level wind fields. So those are the contingencies that need to take place to limit the tornado threat. If none of those happen, well, then you better pray that the models are wrong.

I'll try to post updates today, may get tied up in the field and especially if communication becomes an issue. As much as many of you hate the drama on the local TV news stations, today will be one of those days where it's actually going to be life saving.

[RecycleMichael]

Thanks.

Aaron Tuttle is a weatherman for OKC.

Be sure and post this on OKCNow where it is more relevant.

[Hoss]

Thanks.

Aaron Tuttle is a weatherman for OKC.

Be sure and post this on OKCNow where it is more relevant.

While I rarely agree with Scott on .... well .... most anything, this is going to be a near statewide event this evening.   There will be tornadoes.  Will you or I see one?  Tough to say.  Will someone in Oklahoma see or be affected by one or more?  I'd put the odds at nearly 100 percent.

Please, stay safe everyone.

And actually, Aaron is an FAA weather technician now...yes, in OKC.  He works on the airport terminal radar systems at Will Rogers Airport.  He used to be a meteo for KOCO (ABC).  Before that, he worked at KTUL.

He chases.  And he also reports on storms outside of OKC.  Follow his twitter feed.

[Conan71]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Very high likelihood of supercells extending from central Oklahoma into SW Missouri. 

LATER IN THE EVENING...A SEVERE MCS AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE
   STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

We most certainly are not in the clear in Tulsa.

[Gaspar]

Just a recap:

PRE-GAME

1. Everyone selects a storm chaser other than Von Caster. Every time Travis talks to your storm chaser, you take one drink. Take two drinks every time we see footage from your storm chaser. Take four drinks if your storm chaser says "tornado on the ground."

2. Everyone selects a county other than Pottawatomie County. (Pottawatomie County is much the same as Free Space in Bingo.) Every time Travis mentions your county, you take one drink. Take two drinks every time we see footage from your county. Take four drinks if a tornado touches down in your county.

ONE DRINK

1. Take one drink every time Travis says the following:
"Hook echo" | "Updraft" | "Metro" | "Doppler radar" | "Wall cloud" | "Rain Wrapped" | "Underground" | "Mobile home"
2. When Travis gives a list of counties, take one drink for every county in the list.
3. Take one drink every time Travis interrupts a program. Take one drink if Travis says "You're not missing any of [program name]." Take one drink when Travis says "We'll keep you advised."

TWO DRINKS

1. Take two drinks every time Travis says the following:
"Baseball-sized hail" | "Keystone" | "Pottawatomie County" | "Pawnee High School"
2. Take two drinks every time Travis mentions the following towns:
Altus | Burns Flat | Pryor | Gotebo | Hydro | Lookeba | Okemah | Mulhall | Oktaha | Olustee | Shattuck | Slaughterville | Tryon | Vici | Waukomis | Wayne (or Payne) | Weleetka | Wetumkah
3. Take two drinks every time Travis talks to Von Caster.

THREE DRINKS

1. Take three drinks if we see footage from Von Caster.
2. Take three drinks if we see footage from Pottawatomie County.
3. Take three drinks if Travis mentions the following:
"Immediate tornado precautions" | "National Weather Service" | "Mesocyclone" | "Portable Radio" | "Take shelter" | "Tornado warning in effect until ..."

FOUR DRINKS

1. Take four drinks if Sky News 6 must land to refuel.
2. Take four drinks if Travis issues his own tornado warning, not recognized by the NWS or says the following:
"Will someone please answer that phone?" | "Do you see power flashes?"
3. Take four drinks if a shirt-less tornado victim is interviewed.

FINISH YOUR DRINK

1. Finish your drink if someone uses the word tornado as a verb or if Travis mentions the nearest cross streets to you.
2. If Travis says "We've lost Von," pour a little out for your homies and finish your drink.

[Conan71]

Okay, but how many drinks for: "Foraker", "Lotsee", "Burbank" or "That storm looks 'meaty'"?

All the two drink towns on the list are really within the OKC coverage area

[RecycleMichael]

I am not saying there will or won't be a storm rolling through Tulsa tonight. I just thought it was odd that gaspar didn't use any of the local meteorologists facebook postings. I am friends with one from each station and they all have things to say about the storm. He chose a guy from somewhere else and started a thread.

[DolfanBob]

Oh where is Gary Shore when you need him?
R.I.P. He was my favorite.

[Hoss]

Oh where is Gary Shore when you need him?
R.I.P. He was my favorite.

I really wish that Dick Faurot had taken the lead meteo position at channel 6.  I know he didn't want it, but he's so much more calm than Travis.  I think his head is going to explode sometimes and Travis fumbles with his words.  He's not much different than he was at KTUL.

[Conan71]

I am not saying there will or won't be a storm rolling through Tulsa tonight. I just thought it was odd that gaspar didn't use any of the local meteorologists facebook postings. I am friends with one from each station and they all have things to say about the storm. He chose a guy from somewhere else and started a thread.

Regardless, many of us do have friends, family, and even property in the middle part of the state, so it's of general interest to many of us.  Also an interesting historical perspective most of us can relate to.

[Ibanez]

I really wish that Dick Faurot had taken the lead meteo position at channel 6.  I know he didn't want it, but he's so much more calm than Travis.  I think his head is going to explode sometimes and Travis fumbles with his words.  He's not much different than he was at KTUL.

Couldn't agree more. It has gotten to the point we can't watch KOTV for their weather coverage and stick to KJRH. Travis is just too manic.