How many votes will it take to win?

[RecycleMichael]

Four years ago, the general election had 65,592 votes cast with almost 41,991 going to LaFortune (857 people voted for Paul Tay even though I believe he was in jail at the time).

The primary election has 12 candidates this time.

There are three major republicans and two major democrats this time and history says they will get about 95% of the votes cast.

I assume that there will be more republican votes cast because there are more republican races in the council primaries and there are more republicans registered in Tulsa.

I'm guessing there will be around 35,000 republican votes this time and about 30,000 democrat votes this time. I could be way off because of high interest in the campaigns this time or because of bad weather/voter apathy, etc.

How many votes will each of the major candidates get? Will any of the 3 republicans get 40%? Will one of the two democrats get 60%?