Night before predictions in Mayor's race

[RecycleMichael]

I don't see a record turnout this time. Many of the council races are already decided and others seem less than competitive. The Auditor race and the charter change questions aren't compelling enough for the casual citizen to go to the polls.

The election board is commenting about how much in-person absentee voting is going on and saying that that is a good indicator of a high turnout, but I think it is just better-publicized this time. Part of that has been our own ChazinTulsa who keeps it fresh on this forum.

There were 65,000 votes last time and traditionally between 65,000 and 70,000. I think that is about right tomorrow.

If Ben Faulk and Paul Tay get what the polls show, they will take less than 2,000 votes total away which leaves about 64,000 votes left for Kathy Taylor and Bill LaFortune.

Four years ago, LaFortune got around 41,000 and Gary Watts around 22,000.

I think that there are 20,000 democrats that will vote for any democrat and about 26,000 republicans who will vote for any republican.

That leaves 18,000 votes to fight over.

If Kathy Taylor gets 12,000 of these and Bill Lafortune gets 6,000 of these, the race is dead even.

I predict that LaFortune will get considerably less than 6,000 of these and will get more like 1,500 of these.

My predictions...

Kathy Taylor      36,500 votes  55.0%

Bill Lafortune    27,500 votes  42.0%

Ben Faulk          1,200 votes   1.8%  

Paul Tay             800 votes   1.2%

Who else wants to predict?