Place your bets

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by rwarn17588

The Iowa caucus doesn't mean much, mostly because that state has a distressing tendency to pick the wrong person, Democrat and Republican.

In what context to you mean "wrong person"?

They had Kerry at 37% and Edwards at 31% in '04.

They missed in '92 with Tom Harkin (76%, Clinton had 3% Harkin was a homeboy so it's no mystery there), '88 w/ Gephardt, but chose  Mondale in '84, Gore in '00.

They've had spottier results in picking the GOP nominee in the past, though they picked Bush in '00 and Dole in '96.

[cannon_fodder]

Iowa has a pretty good track record because it is really a middle of the road state.   There are 2 uban areas over 500K (Quad cities area being the other), several mid sized cities of 100+K, and many middle American cities of 20K or so.  Add in a truck load of farmers and its a decent demographic of voting America.

On top of the demographics, they are mostly moderates.  Iowa serves as a filter for the extreme candidates on either side.  They dont do well there.

[MichaelC]

That early California Primary is going to knock a whole bunch of people out.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by MichaelC

That early California Primary is going to knock a whole bunch of people out.

How many delegates are up for grabs in Cali?

[MichaelC]

3 delegates for each of the 53 Congressional Districts.  But it's not "winner takes all"

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003691003_calif03.html

[cannon_fodder]

I say Oklahoma move its primary to the day after the presidential election, so that we can be guaranteed to be first in the nation.

The constant moving up of the date is retarded.  After we chose a candidate it is entirely possible that MOST of the details will come out or the position will change.  

Not to mention a large state like California moving up their date (along with Florida) nullifies the primary in most other states.

[RecycleMichael]

Here is the list as of now for the presidential primaries. It is also changing as states play off each other for attention and the two parties don't always agree as well. This is the genral schedule as of now and the number of delegates they send to the convention.

January 14, 2008 - Iowa (41)
January 19, 2008 - Nevada (34)
January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire[1] (24), Wyoming (12 of 28)[2]
January 29, 2008 - Florida[3] (114)
February 2, 2008 - South Carolina (47)

"Mega-Tuesday" or "National Primary Day"
February 5, 2008 - Alabama (48), Arizona (53), Arkansas (34), California (173), Delaware (18), Georgia (72), Michigan (61), Missouri (58), New Jersey (52), New Mexico (32), New York (101), North Dakota (26), Oklahoma (42), Utah (36), West Virginia (18 of 30)[4]

February 9, 2008 - Louisiana (46)
February 10, 2008 - Maine (21)
February 12, 2008 - Maryland (37), Tennessee (55), Virginia (63)
February 19, 2008 - Minnesota (41), Wisconsin (40)
March 4, 2008 - Connecticut^ (30), Massachusetts^ (43), Ohio(88), Texas^ (140), Vermont (17)
March 11, 2008 - Mississippi (38), Washington (40)
March 18, 2008 - Illinois^ (70), Rhode Island^ (20)
April 1, 2008 - Kansas^ (39)
April 15, 2008 - Colorado (46)
April 22, 2008 - Pennsylvania^ (74)
May 6, 2008 - Indiana (57), North Carolina^ (69)
May 10, 2008 - Wyoming (16 of 28)
May 13, 2008 - Nebraska^ (33), West Virginia (12 of 30)
May 17, 2008 - Alaska (29)
May 20, 2008 - Kentucky (45), Oregon^ (30)
May 27, 2008 - Idaho (32)
June 3, 2008 - Montana (25), South Dakota (27)
June 6, 2008 - Hawaii (20)

It will all be over by Mega Tueday.

[Conan71]

I think you got it nailed RM.

Maybe they ought to bring in Brian France as a consultant and do something like the Nextel Cup chase for the championship in NASCAR.

Start everyone over after Super Tuesday, and re-apportion the delegates for the top five. [}:)]