18 months from now....

[FOTD]

Everyone's going to wake up and see the glut of empty retail space. The warehouse retail big box concept has evolved since 1993 and could potentially make the downtown office vacancy rates look small in comparison.

Yes, we appear to be seeing the cracks in our housing market here as well....credit woes? Keep those TIF's iffy?

Metropolitan Tulsa home sales plunge in November

By ROBERT EVATT World Staff Writer
1/1/2008
Last Modified: 1/1/2008  3:15 AM


Home sales fell significantly in November, plunging 17 percent from the month before. They also were 11.3 percent lower than November 2006.

Ron Sumner, president of the Greater Tulsa Association of Realtors, which released the data Monday, said the sharp decline was a surprise.

"The numbers were down more than we thought they would be, but I'd tie that to a glut of bad national news in August and September that worked its way through the market," Sumner said in a phone interview.

November's average and median prices fell from the previous month as well, though November's median remained 2.5 percent above a year earlier.

Sumner said December's numbers should hold steady, since the number of pending contracts for November didn't decline as sharply as the number of closings.


In stock


In addition to prices and closings, home sales associations usually track the home inventory, which is the sum total of all homes offered for sale at any time during the month.


Taking inventory


Tulsa's inventory is typically many times greater than home closings. November's inventory, for example, was 8,270, down from the 8,720 in October but up from the 7,776 in November
Figures refer to the sale of existing homes in the metropolitan market.

 NOVEMBER 2007 NOVEMBER 2006 OCTOBER 2007
Total units sold 895 1,009  1,078
Pending contracts 892  907 1,052
Average price $150,203  $151,467  $151,017
Median price  $125,500 $122,400 $125,750
Homes on the market  6,432 5,968  6,621
Total value $134,432,068  $152,830,100  $162,796,626


http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectID=32&articleID=080101_5_E1_spanc77528

[TheArtist]

Not good, but not terrible. It would have been a rare miracle indeed if the national housing turmoil didnt finally effect the Tulsa market. Lets just hope the effect is somewhere in the middle of the range or towards the "not as bad" end of the spectrum.

It looks like we are getting some decent projects like the River District and other smaller retail/office/entertainment developments. Now its a matter of really "selling the area" and pushing for enough job and population growth to support all that stuff.

[swake]

FOTD/AOX, here are some of your past "predictions", and these are even aside from your wrong prediction that the Riverwalk was going to fail and be repossessed.  

5/17/06:

Was that the name of the two bay area gents who spent $100,000,000 on downtown properties?
Well, they are all back up for sale. Can you say, "WOOOPS"?

Not only are they not up "for sale" even now Kanbar is refusing to sell a single building in the portfolio to the Barthelmes Conservatory when they approached him.

http://www.urbantulsa.com/gyrobase/Content?oid=oid%3A18583

And you made the same dire predictions about the local real-estate market 15 months ago you are making now? Are you planning on the same predictions year after year until they are true?

10/28/06:

Tulsa is quickly becoming overdeveloped much worse than in 1981.

The announcement by Dixie Development to construct 4-500,000 sq. ft. mixed use shopping/entertainment with another 66 acres across Elm for a "lifestyle center" on the BA at Elm near Bass Pro is the tipping point.

We will see many many years of infill redevelopment. But these enormous undertakings will eventually lead to major strains throughout Tulsa on pricing and value.

Already on 71st street between Memorial and Garnett, big boxes lay empty. And the TIF driven highway 75 and 71st is not even opened yet.

Add to it the housing slow down, lack of growth, and "full" employment and this all adds up to trouble.

Hmm, still no real trouble, in fact we have one of the strongest markets in the nation. The article you quote still shows an increase in home value. The declining sales are probably due to national lenders tightening lending practices and not a local indicator.

[FOTD]

I don't disagree at all the economy here is much better than %90 of our country at this time.

I continue to be concerned about the problems evolving from loose regulations and easy credit.
The population growth does not justify the expansion in retail.

Many retailers will go under when the credit fiasco cuts out the consumer.

My word is true. I make a few mistakes. But I was right with Kanbar and will stick with my prediction of vacancy rates going forward.

[we vs us]

One of the things that never fails to infuriate me is seeing a corporate satellite office crawl into the shell of an old big box store and set up shop, like a hermit crab.  Dish Network has done that, and one of the AA shop buildings did it, too.  I know there's at least one more in the area; someone out there who's lived in Tulsa for longer than my two months can definitely name more, I'm sure.

I mean, of course on the one hand, at least someone is making use of the space, but at the same time it just perpetuates the whole culture of the big box. It validates the concept by being willing to occupy it.

Anyway.  I am Jacks' raging bile duct.  Carry on.