Oklahoma's Reduction in Unemployment Explained

[guido911]

Here:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2008/04/22/oklahoma-unemployment-way-down-will-media-look-why

Okay all you 1804 haters, have at it

[cannon_fodder]

Guido, sorry but that article is pretty worthless as proof of anything.  It says:

"Most of the country has increasing unemployment, Oklahoma has falling unemployment.   The only difference is we passed an anti-immigration law.  I can't find data to support it, but the law probably made unemployment drop in Oklahoma."

It is a blogger postulating on why unemployment has dropped in OK.  He is probably right to some extent, but the industry I work in employs no illegal immigrants (requires certification) and everyone is hiring.  All the industrial sectors in Oklahoma are doing well - jobs that illegals do not often hold.

In fact, the "seasonally adjusted" numbers he uses often don't even consider construction and garden/lawn jobs illegals are most likely to have.  So it would seem the impact would be minimal... but there probably is an impact.

On top of ALL that, less than 4% unemployment is bad for business.  As evident by the 2 men I have hired in the last month that didn't even bother showing up for work.  When established businesses can't find steady labor, few if any new companies are going to want to relocate here.

[Conan71]

I'd imagine there's some impact on the job market and reported jobless rate, but you are correct, there's nothing substantive which points to 1804.

Welders, fabricators, and fitters are in incredibly short supply.  I'm surprised there aren't more people migrating here from up north.

It's not just minimum wage clap-trap which is available.  There's lots of very well-paying skilled trades and management/professional available state-wide.

[guido911]

The source of the article, Newsbusters, is enough to distrust the notion that 1804 is THE reason for the decrease. It I was hoping to bait an argument that 1804 had nothing to do with the decrease. So much for that now.

For what it's worth, the article does cite to interesting news stories about unemployment rates throughout the country.

[inteller]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71



Welders, fabricators, and fitters are in incredibly short supply.  I'm surprised there aren't more people migrating here from up north.

maybe because you need electricty or gas to learn how to weld?[}:)]

[TheArtist]

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

I'd imagine there's some impact on the job market and reported jobless rate, but you are correct, there's nothing substantive which points to 1804.

Welders, fabricators, and fitters are in incredibly short supply.  I'm surprised there aren't more people migrating here from up north.

It's not just minimum wage clap-trap which is available.  There's lots of very well-paying skilled trades and management/professional available state-wide.

I mentioned in another national forum how Tulsa was needing welders and such. Then people commented on how low the wages are here, I got roundly made fun of when people looked online and showed how much the average welding jobs were paying here. Thats probably why people wouldnt take the jobs. People dont go to the trouble of relocating for low wage jobs. Even with our lower cost of living, apparently welding jobs arent paying enough for the skill and work required. Not to mention Tulsas low "desirablility factor", real or not, plays into things.

And yes, isnt it interesting the position we are in. Having such a low unemployment rate and on top of that a low, highly educated, workforce makes it difficult for good jobs and businesses to consider moving, expanding, or even staying, here.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by inteller

quote:Originally posted by Conan71



Welders, fabricators, and fitters are in incredibly short supply.  I'm surprised there aren't more people migrating here from up north.

maybe because you need electricty or gas to learn how to weld?[}:)]

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by TheArtist

quote:Originally posted by Conan71

I'd imagine there's some impact on the job market and reported jobless rate, but you are correct, there's nothing substantive which points to 1804.

Welders, fabricators, and fitters are in incredibly short supply.  I'm surprised there aren't more people migrating here from up north.

It's not just minimum wage clap-trap which is available.  There's lots of very well-paying skilled trades and management/professional available state-wide.

I mentioned in another national forum how Tulsa was needing welders and such. Then people commented on how low the wages are here, I got roundly made fun of when people looked online and showed how much the average welding jobs were paying here. Thats probably why people wouldnt take the jobs. People dont go to the trouble of relocating for low wage jobs. Even with our lower cost of living, apparently welding jobs arent paying enough for the skill and work required. Not to mention Tulsas low "desirablility factor", real or not, plays into things.

And yes, isnt it interesting the position we are in. Having such a low unemployment rate and on top of that a low, highly educated, workforce makes it difficult for good jobs and businesses to consider moving, expanding, or even staying, here.

That's probably one of the reasons as much work has migrated this way.  Lower cost of living equates to lower production costs.  A lot too depends on what welders are fabricating in other areas and whether or not they are union labor.

They might be enjoying higher wages right now, they won't if their jobs get out-sourced to India, Mexico, or China.

[cannon_fodder]

Go back to that forum and tell them that Welders in Tulsa are $2,000 above the national average for welders:
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes514121.htm

Average:  $31K
Tulsa:  $33K

And that's assuming you work a 9-5 and don't want to travel.  $33,000 a year for a 9-5 and just minimal training after high school is not bad.

The reason industrial production is down and industrial jobs have stagnated is that people think they can graduate high school and go buy a Cadillac working as a 9-5 hand.  Sorry, but paying $55,000+ for welders is the reason it's all done by machines in Detroit now (who also don't need health, retirement, sick days, etc.).  

I wish more industrial fab jobs paid $50K plus because the guys that are really good at it make it into an art.  Then again, the guys that are really good at it are supervisors or can take different jobs in the not too distant future.  But no matter what, $33K for a 9-5 in Tulsa is not bad money.    The welder is just $3K off from the NATIONAL average and stands to edge above average and live in a low cost area.

$48,201 is the average income for a household in the United States.  A welder and a wife that works part time in Tulsa will have an above average lifestyle given the lower cost of living.  It's not the lotto, but a good life.

[Conan71]

Interesting stats, CF.  That figure is somewhat in-line with what we are paying, maybe a scosh less.  I've heard from some prospective applicants some of the shops in this area are paying $20 to $21 with some complicated incentives, IOW- $40 to $42K, but that's if you stand on your head, show up one minute early for a year, drive a Chevy, etc.

That might also be a bluff rate some applicats spew out trying to get a better offer.