Can Big Brown be beaten?

[PonderInc]

OK, the race is on in half an hour.  Can Big Brown be beaten in the Preakness?  Nobody seems to think so.  I made a couple trifecta bets (something I never have the guts to do) just assuming that BB will take first. It's sort of like picking an exacta for 2nd and 3rd.  But stranger things have happened that the big favorite to blow the Preakness.  (I did "box" one of my trifectas...just in case BB's not infallible!)

[Wilbur]

Nope.  He's the next Triple Crown winner.

[PonderInc]

OK, then...is he the next Secretariat?

When Big Brown put it in second gear in the Preakness, he passed the field as if everyone else were standing still.  Does this reflect the lack of competition, or Big Brown's greatness?

I was an Alydar fan, back when Alydar came in a close second every time to Affirmed (who won the last Triple Crown).  To me, that was a great year, b/c there was truly a race to be won.  Affirmed had to work hard every time to beat Alydar.  Big Brown hasn't even had to try (yet).  

What's the scoop on Casino Drive, the Kentucky bred horse that's been training and racing in Japan?  Will there be some talent to match Big Brown in the Belmont?

[RecycleMichael]

You are too young to have been a big Alydar/Affirmed fan. That was 1978. It was no rivalry. Affirmed won 7 of the 9.

Big Brown is very impressive and the competition is weak this year.

Trivia question...What do the terms Futurity and Derby mean in horse racing?

[rwarn17588]

quote:Originally posted by PonderInc

OK, then...is he the next Secretariat?

No.

Secretariat broke or tied the track records at the Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

Big Brown, as good as he is, wasn't close to any of those first two records and would get smoked by Secretariat.

But that's no sin. Secretariat was a one-in-a-billion horse.

[RecycleMichael]

Casino Drive is a very good horse who is bred and trained for the distance of the Belmont. He will also be fresher than Big Brown.

Here is a good article on him from Bloodhorse Magazine...

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/45218.htm

One of the reasons why it is so hard to win the triple crown is that the last race is in New York. There is quite a bit of mafia influence at that track. Sometimes, the locals can make more money betting against the favorite than on it.

[PonderInc]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

You are too young to have been a big Alydar/Affirmed fan. That was 1978. It was no rivalry. Affirmed won 7 of the 9.

Before there was Pistol Pete, my aunt and her horse Stardust used to race around the field at Oklahoma A&M football games.

There are pictures of me as a 3-year old at a horse park in Kentucky.  In third grade, I wrote a school paper about Man O War.  By 5th grade, I had read every Marguerrite Henry book ever written.  In 6th grade, I made my family stop at Churchill Downs as we were driving to NY, so I could see where the KY Derby was run.  When I was in 8th grade, we briefly had a horse in our backyard (which we walked across Harvard to a barn behind Edison...before moving her to my aunt's farm).  In college, I worked at the Kentucky Horse Park.  And I just recently removed the Sports Illustrated cover of Genuine Risk winning the KY Derby (1980) from under the glass of my childhood desk.

I was an Alydar fan when I was in elementary school.  You can watch the races on YouTube.  They were close.  Affirmed had to work to win.  It was a rivalry.  And I STILL hate Steve Cauthen! That little whippersnapper![]

[RecycleMichael]

My apologies, you just look too young.

Big Brown has a crack in his foot...

...a quarter crack is a vertical crack in the hoof wall between the toe and heel.

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_ylt=AqEOD9hcseuBR0i8B68iioEX47kF?slug=txbigbrowninjury&prov=st&type=lgns

[PonderInc]

OK, so what's it gonna be?  

Is Big Brown's quarter crack healed enough to withstand 1 1/2 miles of pounding at the Belmont?  

What's the deal with Casino Drive?  Can he transition from Japanese tracks to the Belmont?  Will the new jocky help or hurt?  Do people like him just because they haven't seen Big Brown trounce him yet...or is he the real deal?

Dennis of Cork came from 20th place at the far turn of the KY Derby to finish 3rd.  Without the enormous field standing in his way, and an extra 1/4 mile, will he be able to catch Big Brown?

Seeing the way Big Brown passes horses (as if they're standing still), it's hard to imagine anyone beating him.  But it's an awfully long race...

Any thoughts?

[RecycleMichael]

Here are the post positions...

The field, from the rail out: Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux, 2-5); Guadalcanal (Javier Castellano, 50-1); Macho Again (Garrett Gomez, 20-1); Denis of Cork (Robby Albarado, 12-1); Casino Drive (Edgar Prado, 7-2); Da'Tara (Alan Garcia, 30-1); Tale of Ekati (Eibar Coa, 20-1); Anak Nakal (Julien Leparoux, 30-1); Ready's Echo (John Velazquez, 30-1); and Icabad Crane (Jeremy Rose, 20-1).

I am betting Anak Nakal (30-1) and Icabad Crane (20-1) both to win and hope that something happens to the speed up front.

Big Brown should win easy, but I can't bet my hard-earned money for 2 to 5 return on a horse.

[cannon_fodder]

Dennis of Cork to Place!

[PonderInc]

Casino Drive's dam is the mother of the last two Belmont winners.

Can she go 3 for 3 on Belmont-winning offspring?

That would be pretty historic!

[RecycleMichael]

The jockey of Casino Royale is also the guy who rode the last two horses who broke up the triple crown.

[PonderInc]

Now Casino Drive has been scratched with a stone bruise.  I'm going to try to wheel some horses under BB for a trifecta (I normally don't do anything more fancy than quinella betting at FMD....).  

I do expect BB to win, but I'm also going to put some money on Dennis of Cork, just b/c I liked his effort in the Derby.

[Wilbur]

Not only did Big Brown not win the Triple Crown, he finished in last place at the Belmont.  I have a theory:

It was hot in New York today and it's all George Bush's fault.  Global warming and all.