Hillary is ahead in popular votes

[RecycleMichael]

I know you Obama folk don't want to count Michigan and Florida and do want to count Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington (those four states only have estimated totals). But those two states did have elections, those votes were counted and certified by county and state officials. Obama doesn't want to count them but does want to count caucuses where his supporters made non-verified estimates.

Bottom line, Hillary got way more votes in the combined totals of the two states that voted yesterday. She now is 63,000 votes ahead of Obama. Obama has more delegates, but most of them were won in elections that were held before the media started asking questions about his background and friends/pastor etc.

I know the media don't care and FOTD will flame me for even mentioning her name. She had a great day, but every mainstream media had the headline that Obama had all but wrapped up the election.

[okiebybirth]

quote:Originally posted by RecycleMichael

I know you Obama folk don't want to count Michigan and Florida and do want to count Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington (those four states only have estimated totals). But those two states did have elections, those votes were counted and certified by county and state officials. Obama doesn't want to count them but does want to count caucuses where his supporters made non-verified estimates.

Bottom line, Hillary got way more votes in the combined totals of the two states that voted yesterday. She now is 63,000 votes ahead of Obama. Obama has more delegates, but most of them were won in elections that were held before the media started asking questions about his background and friends/pastor etc.

I know the media don't care and FOTD will flame me for even mentioning her name. She had a great day, but every mainstream media had the headline that Obama had all but wrapped up the election.

How many votes are you giving Obama for Michigan ?

[Gaspar]

That should keep her going for the show!

[FOTD]

http://www.observer.com/2008/best-and-brightest-clinton-hands-seek-obama-treaty

Best And Brightest Of Clinton Hands Seek Obama Treaty

[AVERAGE JOE]

[Chicken Little]

I think it's bad math.  In order for Hillary to have the "lead" in the popular vote she must ADD votes in Florida (where nobody was allowed to campaign); ADD votes in Michigan (where Obama wasn't even on the ballot), and SUBTRACT hundreds of thousands of caucusers from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington.

[Hometown]

Say what you will, Obama's defeats in KY and NC don't look good.

Who knows, we may end up with Clinton yet.  We might even be thankful she hung in there.  You never know with politics.

I still count loyalty as a virtue.

And counting FL and MI out is just plain stupid.  Hear that Howard Dean.  You are stupid.  You are not the man Terry McAulife is.

[FOTD]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

Say what you will, Obama's defeats in KY and NC don't look good.

Who knows, we may end up with Clinton yet.  We might even be thankful she hung in there.  You never know with politics.

I still count loyalty as a virtue.

And counting FL and MI out is just plain stupid.  Hear that Howard Dean.  You are stupid.  You are not the man Terry McAulife is.

Bad newz Homer. Obama WON NC. The Devil knows politics. It was ova re: Hillaree after Wisconsin.

[USRufnex]

Er.  Hometown.... Obama WON North Carolina.  By a large margin.  And Terry McAuliffe was the primary player in 2004... he used his power to make sure Michigan didn't move up its primary...  

Clinton's people CREATED THE RULES... why won't they play by them???  After all, they liked the rules WHEN THEY WERE AHEAD...

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1936

EXHIBIT A: Clinton Conference Call With Reporters, January 9, 2008 [held by Communications Director Howard Wolfson, Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe, and surrogates]:

WOLFSON: I guess one other thing I'd add is that, as you know, this is a race for delegates. And we currently enjoy a lead in delegates, thanks to the great -- some of the great super delegates that we have on this call and around the country.

And we believe that we will do very well in the states between now and February 5th and on February 5th. But this is a delegate race. We've two important states that have a major say in our nominating process in Iowa and New Hampshire, and they have spoken, and now the rest of the country gets to weigh in with an enormous number of delegates.

We feel, as Senator Schumer said, extremely good about New York. As Senator Feinstein said, we feel extremely good about California. As Senator Menendez said, we feel extremely good about New Jersey. Those are states with an enormous amount of delegates.

And we believe that we will come out of February 5th with the delegates that we need.


EXHIBIT B: Clinton News Teleconference, January 9, 2008 [held by Finance Director Jonathan Mantz and Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe]:

MCAULIFFE: Well, I mean, sure that's possible. I mean, anything's possible in this business. I've said from day one, and this is the point I tried to make yesterday on television when everybody was asking me questions about after Iowa and New Hampshire what happens, I've always viewed it sort of as a 27-state contest.

But, listen, I always said we're going to win some, we're going to lose some. And at the end of the day it's getting a basket of delegates.

[...]

MCAULIFFE: [New Hampshire] was a big, big victory, and a lot of it is because of the folks on this call. So I can't thank you enough. We are now focused on 25 more states that we have between now and February 5th. I have always said that this thing would be over on February 5th. I believe it. With so many delegates in play on February 5th, I think that, barring something I can't foresee today, I think it's over on February 5th.


EXHIBIT C: MSNBC Appearance By Communications Director Howard Wolfson, January 25, 2008.

WOLFSON: Well, you know, as you know, all of the polls have Senator Obama ahead. I think he has run a strong campaign in South Carolina. He began there ahead; he remains ahead.

And we have said since Iowa that this is a race for delegates. It's a race that we are ahead in. We have more delegates than Senator Obama.

EXHIBIT D: Clinton Conference Call With Reporters, February 6, 2008 [held by Communications Director Howard Wolfson, Chief Strategist Mark Penn, and National Political and Field Director Guy Cecil]:

CECIL: Well, our goal at the end of last night was to be ahead in super delegates and overall delegates. And, in fact, this morning, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

...So, as we move forward, again, we believe that the campaign that takes a long-term approach to delegates, focusing on the next months and developing a strategy to not only win district-level and at-large delegates, but super delegates is going to be the nominee. And we think we have a plan to get us to 2,025.

...[WOLFSON] We think that we are in the poll position because we have a lead, overall, in delegates. We think it is going to be very difficult for Senator Obama to make up that lead because of the way in which the party allocates its delegates proportionately.

So we feel very good about that. But this is going to be a neck-and-neck contest for the foreseeable future.

Senator Obama does enjoy some advantages in the contests in the rest of February, but not in a way that should permit him to overcome our lead in delegates.

...CECIL: I would make two additions to what Mark is saying.

Certainly, we are not writing off any state. I think one of the things that we have all seen in this process is that it's not only about winning or losing states, it's about delegates. And we think that over the course of the Chesapeake primary that the delegate margin overall would be within 15 delegates.

...WOLFSON: And overall, we have a significant lead among delegates, overall, which, obviously, at the end of the day is what is going to positively determine which Democrat is our party's nominee.

------------------------------------------------

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1950

McAuliffe in 2004 on Michigan....

"I'm going outside the primary window," [Michigan Sen. Carl Levin] told me definitively.

"If I allow you to do that, the whole system collapses," I said. "We will have chaos. I let you make your case to the DNC, and we voted unanimously and you lost."

He kept insisting that they were going to move up Michigan on their own, even though if they did that, they would lose half their delegates. By that point Carl and I were leaning toward each other over a table in the middle of the room, shouting and dropping the occasional expletive.

"You won't deny us seats at the convention," he (Carl Levin) said.

"Carl, take it to the bank," I said. "They will not get a credential. The closest they'll get to Boston will be watching it on television. I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules. If you want to call my bluff, Carl, you go ahead and do it."

We glared at each other some more, but there was nothing much left to say. I was holding all the cards and Levin knew it.

[Source: McAuliffe, Terry. What A Party!, p. 325.]

------------------------------------------------

McAuliffe on Florida and Michigan last month....

CBSNews.com: And also this week, the governors of Florida and Michigan came out and seemed open to a revote in those states for their delegations to count at the Democratic convention. What is the position of your campaign on a possible revote?

Terry McAuliffe: Well, what we have said is that these folks have already voted. I mean, people talk about a revote. But there is no appetite in Florida or Michigan by the state legislatures. I mean, there's no money. Who is going to pay the tens of millions of dollars to do this?

I've been informed that the Florida legislature, under no circumstances, would pay to have the Democrats redo it. So I agree with what has been said. The governors of both states have kept saying that the state parties in these two states need to work with the national party and come to some resolution of this matter. We just can't leave 2.3 million voters, 1.75 million in Florida, and over 600,000 in Michigan, who went in and voted. They've already voted. And we just need to count the votes...

CBSNews.com: So you're ruling out the Clinton campaign ever supporting a revote?

Terry McAuliffe: I'm saying they've already voted, let's count the votes. I'm saying that the state parties in those states need to work with the national party and figure out how we count the votes that have already been voted.

------------------------------------------------

HYPOCRISY, thy name is Terry McAuliffe...  [}:)]

[FOTD]

Ruff.....it's incredible.

Line them up. ***** slap 'em. Send the losers on their way in spite of her Republican backers.

[waterboy]

All the Hillary supporters are pulling for the miracle finish that gives them Michigan and Florida and somehow convinces delegates to switch back to her. They talk about how terrible a fate the party will face should she lose. It is rumored that Hillary supporters are so dedicated that they will refuse to support any candidate should she fail. That's mostly supposed to be poor whites and 50% of women. Actually, I don't believe either of those suppositions but....

What will the Democratic party do should her dream come true? Exactly what HT and others think if Hillary loses. Obama supporters will likely lose all confidence in the process, the black vote and young college educated support will dry up and refuse to even vote. The loss of those two groups probably exceeds the loss of Hillary supporters that refuse to vote.  She could suffer a humiliating defeat to a candidate of Bob Dole strength and damage the cause of female candidates for a long time to come.

That said, a friend of mine makes the argument that she should keep running till the convention. She stirs the pot of involvement. Each primary has set records for new Democrat registration and participation. Republicans stand to lose the focus of the camera when the race between these two is really more interesting.

You know, if she had just apologized for the Iraq vote she could have tossed off the image that she is inflexible and hardheaded. Traits that remind the voters of Bush. She could have been the contender.

[we vs us]

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

That said, a friend of mine makes the argument that she should keep running till the convention. She stirs the pot of involvement. Each primary has set records for new Democrat registration and participation. Republicans stand to lose the focus of the camera when the race between these two is really more interesting.

Too, true.  I mean, does anyone know what John McCain's doing today?  I sure don't.  All I know is he keeps making this low voltage appearances, inevitably misstates basic American policy, and then has to have Joe Lieberman step in and correct him in public.  Other than that, is he even running?

PS, I hope the Republican caucus is ready for a "Democrat" on their ticket, because my money's on Lieberman to be McCain's Veep.

[TulsaFan-inTexas]

quote:Originally posted by we vs us

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

That said, a friend of mine makes the argument that she should keep running till the convention. She stirs the pot of involvement. Each primary has set records for new Democrat registration and participation. Republicans stand to lose the focus of the camera when the race between these two is really more interesting.

Too, true.  I mean, does anyone know what John McCain's doing today?  I sure don't.  All I know is he keeps making this low voltage appearances, inevitably misstates basic American policy, and then has to have Joe Lieberman step in and correct him in public.  Other than that, is he even running?

PS, I hope the Republican caucus is ready for a "Democrat" on their ticket, because my money's on Lieberman to be McCain's Veep.

I'm a Republican, and I'd take Lieberman over McCain as PRESIDENT any day.

As for Hillary Rodham Clinton; stick a fork in her she's done.

Obama will more than likely be the next President of the US.

[Hometown]

I'm getting my states mixed up.  I think I meant West Virginia.  I would just like to balance the argument about Obama's supporters by saying that Clinton's half of the party is equally committed to her and just as likely to feel divorced from the party.  And it looks like Clinton could bring home the Reagan Democrats.

Obama's big loss in what was it, Kentucky this late in the game and with all the pundits saying Clinton is out of the running points out some continuing problems for our prospects in November.

[Gaspar]

Hillary vowed this morning to take the fight for MI and FL to the convention floor.

Told you she would attempt a fracture.

Major Hillary funders and women's groups took out full page ads in the NYT saying they will leave the party if she does not get the nomination.

Wow!  I'm like a psychic!  I even predicted that this would happen this week!

Now lets see if my prediction about Hillary (or one of her supporter groups)  litigating the FL and MI controversy comes true.

The Clintons are a known entity.  Very easy to predict.

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