Russia Invades Georgia, Levels Cities

[cannon_fodder]

Short Version:

Dear neighbors, comply.  Love Russia (this means you Ukraine, we poisoned your president we can poison your nation).

The version as I understand it:

A province of Georgia (South Ossetia) was populated by the Russians in the "good old days" as Russian factories were build and the Soviet Union took over mines and other industry. They simply brought in ethnic Russians to fill jobs in insta cities. As they did in many places.

When Georgia declared independence upon the fall of the Union these now-displaced peoples (as well as those in the Ukraine, Uzbek, etc.) no longer enjoyed the "more equal" status of ethnic Russians. Other ethnic minority factions in Georgia were again minorities and wanted their own country (not just Russians).  The province was not happy and declared itself separate in the 1990s. Cue a civil war... eventually an uneasy peace with Russian and Georgian peace keepers.

Recently Russia has been rattling the saber. Fly overs of Georgian air space. Mass military exercises on the border. They even dropped a couple bombs in Georgia "by mistake" (why were you flying over their territory anyway?).

Recently tank battalions massed on the border. The Georgians moved in to the province in force to make sure the Russians new it was still THEIR territory (I don't really get that, seems like suicide but perhaps they figured they were going to be attacked and had to do something). The Russians said their military that in the province was now under threat and within an hour a couple tank battalions were in Georgia (strange that they were right there, huh?).

Russia has proceeded in the action as if at war, described as a "well organized invasion." It has bombed command and control facilities, power plants, 4 airports and air bases in Georgia. The capital city of Tskhinvali has been "raised" by areal bombardment. The University and central hospital included. “It looks like Stalingrad in 1943,” said Dmitry Medoev, a Moscow representative of the separatist South Ossetia government. “Everything is burnt and destroyed.”

Essentially they will cause enough damage to Georgia that they cannot nor will continue a meaningful fight. There is also an oil pipeline that would be nice to control (full 1% of the worlds crude) that gets fuel to Europe via the Caspian (read: not Russia). Then they will graciously declare peace and annex the province.

Worked well in Yugoslavia, Romania... or in the Sudetenland for that matter.  Just going to protect our citizens and stop the fighting, nothing to see here...

The US has advisers in Georgia. I believe less than 200. Georgia has recalled it's troops from Iraq to join the fighting at home (Third largest troop contributor to Iraq). We may help transport their troops from Iraq.

According to the Russians, they bombed the city to oblivion to stop the invading Georgians from their campaign of ethnic cleansing. Alternatively, the invasion is a response to the wounding 3 peace keepers in an artillery attack on "rebels."  "It is sad, but this will provoke retaliatory measures," he said from Beijing, where he is attending today's Olympics opening ceremony.

Goergia and the Ukraine are both democracies with largely implanted Russian minorities that want to join NATO. Russia is not happy about this. It is showing it's neighbors what happens when you ally with Western powers that are not prepared to defend you militarily.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080808.wossetia09/BNStory/International/home
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/09/world/europe/09georgia.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&bl&ei=5087&en=d1e8c093fe19df1b&ex=1218427200
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4483968.ece


My friend in St. Petersburg emailed me that the Russia media (which is now mostly state run) has reported that Russia has strengthened it's peace keepers in Georgia after they were attacked.  No mention of areal bombardment of cities, or the impression that there was actual fighting.  They are now reporting that Georgia leveled the city and the reports in the "western media are lies."

I'm not siding with the rebels or the Georgians, but the Russians side of the story seems a bit off.

[cannon_fodder]

FYI, the Georgian military has:

Budget:  $1bil USD

37,000 active troops
100,000 reserve
and mandatory conscription for all 18 year olds of 18 months (read: population knows how to fight)

~300 Tanks (top line is the T-72)
~400 APC/light assault
~260 heavy artillery pieces (~100 self propelled)

~60 fighters (mig-25 top line)
~10 bombers
~100 choppers (more modern)

Decent air defenses and a small, French supplied Navy.

Certainly not a real hardy foe, but enough to put up a fight if they really want to.  Most of their equipment is soviet era designs (if not manufacture).  But the army appears professional anyway.

RUSSIA:

Budget $40BIL

Troops - 1mil, 3.7mil reserve

Tanks:  23,000
APC - 25,000
Artillery - 30,000

Fighters: 800
Bombers: 900
Chopper: 350
Missile Defense: 14,000

Navy:  50 Boomers, 50 Hunter subs, 40 destroyers, 30 frigates (no carriers) (~170 ships, 120 active)

The bad news is their equipment is mostly old crap, their modern stuff has been shown to be junk (see Israel bombing Syria), and their military is notoriously poorly trained.  The bad news (for Georgia) is simple numbers. See what I'm getting at?


(US:

$580 BILLION

1.4mil active
1.4 mil reserve


Tanks:  19,000
APC - 24,000
Artillery - 5,300
Missile Defense: 34,000

Fighters: 3,802 (includes 122 5th generation fighter/F-22)
Bombers: 240 conventional + 21 stealth bombers
Attack: 460 (warthogs, F/A18's)
Chopper: a crap ton
(our numbers are hard to figure since airforce and navy each have aircraft)

Navy:  280 active ships.  Including 11 aircraft carriers and 2 more under construction.

Fun facts: more military aircraft than the rest of the world combined.  More aircraft carriers then...  More helicopters than... More "active" ships than (Russia and North Korea each have 700 ships, half of Russias and most of NK are not functional.  NK looks really good on paper)... spend more money than everyone else (U.S.A - ~623 BIL, everyone else, $500Bil).

[bugo]

I wonder if they'll spare Savannah this time.

Wait, you meant *that* Georgia.  Never mind.

[we vs us]

Russia freaks me out more and more.  They're seemingly willing to go farther than just about any other country to achieve their goals.  And that includes making ridiculous claims on Ossetia, a region of about 40k souls who was last part of Russia in the 19th century.

There's got to be an ulterior motive for this, and not just annexing a sympathetic province from a much smaller country.  Maybe it's a resource grab, or a way to destabilize the whole region. Maybe something else.  It just seems like such a pissant little place to go to war over.

[cannon_fodder]

Goergia has withdrawn from the provincial capital as a "goodwill gesture" and offered a cease fire. no response.

The bombing has expanded to military basis throughout Georgia as well as a couple other cities and an industrial port. As a result Georgia has declared a state of war for 15 days.

Georgia claims to have shot down 10 Russian planes, Russia admitted to losing 2 yesterday.  Georgian TV (private and a free press) showed images of at least 3 downed planes including one dead Russian Colonel's ID.

Russian planes are also providing close air support to a separatist groups in a Western province (Akhalia or something).

I predict Russia fully occupies South Ossetia and marches a little south of there to threaten the capital and also, by happenstance, take control of the oil pipeline.  It will either occupy or take defacto control of the Western province.  It will declare the peace keepers are needed to protect the population and act as a buffer zone from the Georgian aggressors (what they said on every other land grab they made in history).

IN OTHER NEWS, Russian media (state controlled) is now reporting that the United States orchestrated the Georgian attack on Russia with the help of the Ukraine.  The Russian eq. of Secratary of Defense stated that the US has "prepared the force, which destroys everything in South Ossetia, attacks civilians and hospitals. They are responsible for this."

The official also accused Georgia of ethnic cleansing, leveling villages, destroying hospitals, and other acts that have cause Russia to "question its consistency as a state."  That sounds dangerously like "we should do the world a favor and wipe them off the map."

http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/09-08-2008/106046-russia_georgia-0

Actual Russian Headlines:  

"Putin: Georgia’s actions are criminal, whereas Russia’s actions are absolutely legitimate."

"The two-faced, underhanded foreign policy of Georgia"

"Russian FM: Georgia’s treacherous attack"

In other Russian news (surely not related):
"NPR: National Public Radio or Nothing Positive about Russia?"

"Karadzic’s Arrest Puts the Lid on the FAKE War on Terror"

"Russia may eventually retrieve its military presence in Cuba and Vietnam"

"Russia launches another ballistic missile, prepares to create sea-based carrier systems"

"USA still afraid of Soviet weapons"

My favorite by far:
"Cindy McCain Visits Serbian Kosovo"  which includes this... which I did not alter at all:

quote:she became addicted to painkillers after undergoing two spinal surgeries. The addiction eventually led her to steal pills from her own American Voluntary Medical Team." This was a charity she was working for that was set up to help impoverished kids.

The declaration of independence by Albanian mafia leaders, which has implicitly been recognized by Cindy McCain's visit to Pristina, is a major threat to global peace and security and shows a major deficit in understanding the implications of one‘s actions.

This is nothing new for John McCain, a subject which will be explored in depth in the near future. Sending his wife to Kosovo confirms that McCain accepts Clinton's fraudulent version of what happened there and that he agrees with Bush and wishes to continue as a neo-Bush complete with his total ineptitude as a leader in all respects.

First, it goes from visiting Kosovo to drug addict in about 4 sentences.  Then the mafia declared independence and the kicker:  total ineptitude as a leader in all respects.

That's just awesome.

[we vs us]

Hm, look, there's a major oil pipeline running smack through the center of Georgia.  Go figure.



Cribbed from the excellent blog The Oil Drum.

The Times Online has this nice little summary:

 

quote: The conflict that has erupted in the Caucasus has set alarm bells ringing because of Georgia's pivotal role in the global energy market.  

Georgia has no significant oil or gas reserves of its own but it is a key transit point for oil from the Caspian and central Asia destined for Europe and the US.

Crucially, it is the only practical route from this increasingly important producer region that avoids both Russia and Iran.

The 1,770km (1,100 miles) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which entered service only last year, pumps up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from Baku in Azerbaijan to Yumurtalik, Turkey, where it is loaded on to supertankers for delivery to Europe and the US. Around 249km of the route passes through Georgia, with parts running only 55km from South Ossetia.

[FOTD]

SHORTER VERSION!
Bush and Putin weren't sitting at the Olympic games for nothing. They were talking about war. Putin said okay...bomb Iran and we will bomb Georgia. They had their talks the night of the Olympic games. Russia gets the Georgia oil, and the US gets the Iran oil. China's happy because China just owns us, and all the oil in Africa they want.

 U.S. Naval Armada Heads For Iran

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/massive-us-naval-armada-heads-for-iran.html


Something funny going on.....like a couple of mobsters, Putin and Cheney....

[we vs us]

FOTD:  Here's some interesting commentary on your blog link:

http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/08/09/iran-4/

[FOTD]

This from the guy who is on record as saying it would be acceptable to continue the illegal occupation of Iraq for 10,000 years. Hypocrite much?


McCaint calls on Russia to withdraw from Georgia

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSWAT00988820080808

[cannon_fodder]

If you don't know the difference between Iraq and Georgia invasions there you are not worth talking to. If you still believe we have occupied Iraq to steal their resources or otherwise oppress their people you're a fool.

Not too mention a UN mandate was issued.  Upon it's expiration we can only legally stay at the request of Iraq - hence the recent controversy.  So the whole "illegal war" thing is also a losing argument.

Just to be clear.  We OK'd Russia to invade our quasi ally, Russia OK'd us to invade their ally.  Then why are the Russians saying we started the war in Georgia.?  Why haven't we invaded Iran or massed troops?  to "take their oil" we will need to occupy Iran.

I also find it funny how much zeal you take in "calling out" people you don't like but when someone you do like turns out to be a dude you sit silent.  When Russia invades Georgia you somehow manage to portray the US as the bad guy.  It's really telling.

[cannon_fodder]

quote:Originally posted by FOTD
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/massive-us-naval-armada-heads-for-iran.html.

You're source claims it is:

quote:A blog hosted by the Right Honorable The Earl of Stirling, hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia.

Th Earl of Stirling as a title has been dormant since 1739.  There is also no title of "Lord Lieutenant of Canada."  Who the hell invents fake hereditary titles for them self?

The same assclown claimed last year that Israeli planes were based in Iraq and were going to bomb Iran.  

quote:I hold several ancient Scottish titles, Earl of Stirling, Viscount of Canada, Viscount of Stirling, Lord Alexander of Tulibody (1630), Lord Alexander of Tulibody (1633), etc., Chief of Clan Alexander, I also hold several honorific old Canadian great offices-of-state: Lord Lieutenant and Governor of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, Lord Lieutenant of Nova Scotia, Lt.-Gen. of Nova Scotis (first Lord Stirling was founder of English speaking Canada in the early 1600s). I hold 3 degrees: B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education. I have worked on 3 addtional degrees: M.T.S. (theology); LL.B. (English Law); M.S. (Criminal Justice). I am former Scottish Editor at Burke's Peerage in London. I also hold several Scots/Canadian feudal titles. I am a widower. I have a published book, CASH FOR PEERAGES: THE SMOKING GUN, www.lulu.com/content/953682 . Listing for me as Chief of Clan Alexander at www.electricscotland.com/webclans/chiefs.htm I am available for public speaking engagements. Please contact me at: earlofstirling@yahoo.com

lol.  He'd a generous (who can't spell "additional") AND royalty.  He's smart, he has 3 degrees (which of the 4 he listed does he not really hold?).  Bet he's rich too.  Curiously he fails to mention which school he attended.  also odd that the most official page he references is another blog.  Also, the House of Lords fails to list him:
http://www.parliament.uk/directories/house_of_lords_information_office/alphabetical_list_of_members.cfm

Seriously, I think this source is a new low even for you.  No wonder you have no touch with reality if crap like this is where you get your "news."  Tell the Earl of Sterling Viscount of Canada that he's a dude.

but thanks for the laugh.

[FOTD]

CF....why did we invade Iraq? Not for oil? For WMD? To oppress their people or just free them by taking out Hussein?

Wait and we will see....Iran will be the final solution before the Busheviks leave office. Just like the economy, these pathetic leaders will make the next 4 years more than agony for the democrats by leaving two gigantic problems behind.

August sooprise, September sooprise or October sooprise???

Dumbya was out foxed by Puti early on and now will go out like a retaliatory dry drunk, watch.

[cannon_fodder]

Go start a thread backing up your claim that we started the war in Iraq for oil.  In that thread please explain the return on investment thinking to me.  Explain why we have allowed Iraq to keep ALL their oil wealth even as we spend hundreds of billions.  Explain why not even the US military that is there is free to take fuel from the Iraqis.  

Saddam was a tool who failed to comply with the terms of a peace accord, we had reason to believe he had WMDs (oops), and he funded terrorism (blow up Israeli's get a free house!).  Not too mention killing Kurds, Sunni's, and shooting at US planes.  We've been over this again and again and again.  If you don't know my perspective you haven't been paying attention.

More importantly, Russia invades a neighbor and your response is "SO, the US sucks!"  Then you site the Czar of Canada as a source.  That's just lame.

- - - -

BACK ON TOPIC.

Russia has shot over 50 missiles at the aforementioned oil pipeline.  I guess it has been unable to gain control of it, but destroying it also gives it a monopoly on fuel to Europe.  The £2 billion pipeline is the only major conduit for Central Asian resources not under Russian control, it is run by the British.  Keeping in mind that Russia has shut of gas and other fuels in the winter to get nations to comply with its demands.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2534767/Georgia-Russia-targets-key-oil-pipeline-with-over-50-missiles.html

This is an interesting Australian article on the issue...

quote:If Western interests are not to be irreparably damaged, we will need to understand that they are being tested on three overlapping levels: local, regional and global. Georgia is not just a square on a chessboard, but a country that is extremely important in its own right. For two reasons, the West cannot be indifferent to what happens there. First, despite the uncultivated instincts of its President, Georgia's political culture is fundamentally democratic, its people (80% of whom support NATO membership) profoundly pro-Western, and its sense of national identity almost indestructible. Georgia can be defeated by Russia, but it can no longer submit to it, and therefore war between Georgia and Russia would be a frightening prospect even if no wider interests existed

Essentially Russia has been prodding Georgia for so long, that Georgia HAD to stand up or submit.   It goes on to say that Russia is more than willing to pick fights with perspective NATO members and is confident there will be no response.  Of which, they are correct.  
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-west-cannot-afford-to-be-indifferent-to-georgias-fate-20080810-3szp.html?page=2

Georgian troops are under orders to observe a cease fire, Russia has refused to acknowledge it.  Russian forces (while denying they are escalating the conflict, also denying a naval blockade) have moved to take the town of Gori after bombarding it.    GORI is the birthplace of Stalin.  Recently voted by Russians to be the "greatest Russian of all time" (for killing about 20 million people by execution, starvation, or work camps) they would clearly like to control that town... to protect the Georgians of course.

[FOTD]

CF....AMERIKA screwed up the war in Iraq for oil.....DUH!They had thought it would be a cake walk. Miscalculation that led to mess upon mess upon financial debacle. There has never been a doubt that these oily leaders of ours were out for future deadicated reserves....

Russia is going to be kept busy by US-assisted provocations taking place between Georgia and South Ossetia. The Security Council is meeting now on the escalation of hostilities between the two countries. Remember that Georgia is one of the countries that was the target of US-tainted "people's revolutions" where pro-US parties won disputed elections forcing out true Georgian nationalists to be replaced by US friendly hacks. The distinct possibility exists the US lured Russia into this battle as a diversion. The thing is, Georgia has been building it's military faster than any country on the planet, and we've been paying for that. We are already in up to our necks.

NOW, look at the armada headed for Iran and tell me these "leaders" of ours don't look to save face! This truly is a very big story gone south in the MSM.

The US Naval forces being assembled include the following:

Carrier Strike Group Nine
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing Two
Destroyer Squadron Nine:
USS Mobile Bay (CG53) guided missile cruiser
USS Russell (DDG59) guided missile destroyer
USS Momsen (DDG92) guided missile destroyer
USS Shoup (DDG86) guided missile destroyer
USS Ford (FFG54) guided missile frigate
USS Ingraham (FFG61) guided missile frigate
USS Rodney M. Davis (FFG60) guided missile frigate
USS Curts (FFG38) guided missile frigate
Plus one or more nuclear hunter-killer submarines

Peleliu Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Peleliu (LHA-5) a Tarawa-class amphibious assault carrier
USS Pearl Harbor (LSD52) assult ship
USS Dubuque (LPD8) assult ship/landing dock
USS Cape St. George (CG71) guided missile cruiser
USS Halsey (DDG97) guided missile destroyer
USS Benfold (DDG65) guided missile destroyer

Carrier Strike Group Two
USS Theodore Roosevelt (DVN71) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing Eight
Destroyer Squadron 22
USS Monterey (CG61) guided missile cruiser
USS Mason (DDG87) guided missile destroyer
USS Nitze (DDG94) guided missile destroyer
USS Sullivans (DDG68) guided missile destroyer

USS Springfield (SSN761) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine

IWO ESG ~ Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group
USS Iwo Jima (LHD7) amphibious assault carrier
with its Amphibious Squadron Four
and with its 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit
USS San Antonio (LPD17) assault ship
USS Velia Gulf (CG72) guided missile cruiser
USS Ramage (DDG61) guided missile destroyer
USS Carter Hall (LSD50) assault ship
USS Roosevelt (DDG80) guided missile destroyer

USS Hartfore (SSN768) nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine

Carrier Strike Group Seven
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN76) nuclear powered supercarrier
with its Carrier Air Wing 14
Destroyer Squadron 7
USS Chancellorsville (CG62) guided missile cruiser
USS Howard (DDG83) guided missile destroyer
USS Gridley (DDG101) guided missile destroyer
USS Decatur (DDG73) guided missile destroyer
USS Thach (FFG43) guided missile frigate
USNS Rainier (T-AOE-7) fast combat support ship

Also likely to join the battle armada:

UK Royal Navy HMS Ark Royal Carrier Strike Group with assorted guided missile destroyers and frigates, nuclear hunter-killer submarines and support ships

French Navy nuclear powered hunter-killer submarines (likely the Amethyste and perhaps others), plus French Naval Rafale fighter jets operating off of the USS Theodore Roosevelt as the French Carrier Charles de Gaulle is in dry dock, and assorted surface warships

http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/Massive-US-Naval-Armada-He-by-Lord-Stirling-080808-541.html

And if this is not saber rattling, then shame on them. They are in for big trouble. When you lead a big armada into another country's territorial waters, you cannot (if something dire happens) point the finger and say it is that country's fault for protecting themselves. The larger question would be, what were you doing there in the first place? Like a sea of gasoline with a match being lit....

[Chris]

Are we really sending all these ships? I can't find anything online that doesn't source from the Canadian guy.