Irony, Anyone?

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

You've had a break and it's over.

Yes, I've seen newsreels and your party was making the same arguments 78 years ago.  There's only so many ways to package your greed.

Many Democrats took a hit when they gave Clinton the only balanced budgets in my lifetime and were voted out of office.

We can deliver.  You can't.

We left the nation a surplus.  You are leaving us a major financial disaster.  Again.

Did you hear the brokers on the floor of stock exchange yesterday when the heard the news of your failure?  They shouted "Idiots."

Your credibility is completely shot, HT.

You are nothing more than a petty looter in this debacle.  You got your share, and now you are trying to blame others for the overall fall-out when you were part of the problem at street level.

You remind me of a "man-on-the-street" interview that took place in Long Beach in 1992.  The guy had a shopping cart full of looted goods and his friend was carrying a new TV still in the box.  Buildings were burning in the background and they were blaming Terry White for their neighborhood being totally ****ed.

Yeah, Rodney King's prosecutor wrecked their neighborhood.  Their own greed and wanton disregard for losses to anyone else down the road never crossed their mind.

Go peddle your partisan claptrap somewhere else.  There are Democrats and Republicans with this puke all over their hands.  You still don't see the pandora's box that was opened when the government started telling lenders to make loans to people previously thought to be poor risks.  That got bottom rung real estate moving which got those sellers upwardly mobile, which begat... get the point?

There's more-and-more damning evidence emerging that Barney Frank and Chris Dodd ran interference in Congress for the mortgage giants before they were in the majority.  

[FOTD]

We will see the damning evidence repurcussions come Novembers vote!

[waterboy]

Conan, you keep insisting that the govt. told these bankers they HAD to make loans to unqualified buyers. Its just not true. Many mortgage lenders did not participate in the lunacy and are doing just fine. My brother and sister-in-law work for a couple of those lenders in Minneapolis. Their jobs are secure (for now) because their companies continued their standards and refused to participate in the greed fest. They also held their own loans rather than greedily pushing them off for immediate gain. Their loans are well performing and profitable. Not all of the lenders were CountryWide status.

Its also a hell of a lot more than loosened lending practices. Securitizing of mortgage packages that basically changed assets into liabilities, failure to diversify the economy and a failure to discourage exporting of our jobs overseas as Nep has pointed out, ALL were more important than loosening of home mortgage requirements. Actually, 2/3 of the home loans in this mess would easily have qualified for lower rates. That means they were not only overpaying for their loans, but the loans were not that risky.

The high foreclosure rate triggered the crisis, but unlike McCain, non partisans understand that the foreclosures exposed that there is an underlying WEAKNESS in our economy. People losing jobs, suffering uninsured catastrophic illnesses, and death of principal wage earners are the main causes of foreclosures.

[Hometown]

Conan, you sound like a Communist.  

Now, I've got to go and write a check to the French Drain man and another check to the Tree Man.  I'm still pumping up Tulsa's economy with my solid profits.  And there's more to come.  

I don't know if I ever told you about the second property I sold at the peak of the market.

Can't stand to see a hometown guy do good?  You should have gone looking for foreclosures in the nation's most expensive housing market at the bottom of the market and then sold them at the top of the market -- like I did.  I took a big risk and it paid off.

Word to the wise.  Cash is king in a depression.

Now, Conan, what are you going to tell your grandkids?  "Kiddies, let me tell you about how I never went anywhere, never challenged myself, never took a risk, never changed."

[RecycleMichael]

Be careful about attacking Conan.

Did you ever see him in those movies?

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown



Now, Conan, what are you going to tell your grandkids?  "Kiddies, let me tell you about how I never went anywhere, never challenged myself, never took a risk, never changed."

Is that the best you got?  I've got a lot more going for me in life and business than flipping a couple of pieces of real estate.

For someone to do so well then crap on the system, with a bunch of sophomoric partisan coments, which brought them personal wealth boggles my mind.  That's why liberalism gets such a bad rap from thinking people.  It's the hypocrites like you who preach liberal values that gives it a bogus ring.  When someone like Ruf preaches it, it's got a sense of honesty about it.

[cannon_fodder]

If the Federal Government would give me $700,000,000,000.00 I promise I would stimulate the economy.

[Hometown]

Who said that's all I've done.

I believe that my economic well being is directly tied to that of my community and I've always tried to vote with that in mind.

That's why I'm a Democrat and a liberal.

You know, Roosevelt (the Big Democrat) saved Capitalism.

So yes, Conan, our lives are fraught with irony and you are adding to the irony by the minute.

I say buy low, sell high.  Radical huh?

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by waterboy

Conan, you keep insisting that the govt. told these bankers they HAD to make loans to unqualified buyers. Its just not true. Many mortgage lenders did not participate in the lunacy and are doing just fine. My brother and sister-in-law work for a couple of those lenders in Minneapolis. Their jobs are secure (for now) because their companies continued their standards and refused to participate in the greed fest. They also held their own loans rather than greedily pushing them off for immediate gain. Their loans are well performing and profitable. Not all of the lenders were CountryWide status.

Its also a hell of a lot more than loosened lending practices. Securitizing of mortgage packages that basically changed assets into liabilities, failure to diversify the economy and a failure to discourage exporting of our jobs overseas as Nep has pointed out, ALL were more important than loosening of home mortgage requirements. Actually, 2/3 of the home loans in this mess would easily have qualified for lower rates. That means they were not only overpaying for their loans, but the loans were not that risky.

The high foreclosure rate triggered the crisis, but unlike McCain, non partisans understand that the foreclosures exposed that there is an underlying WEAKNESS in our economy. People losing jobs, suffering uninsured catastrophic illnesses, and death of principal wage earners are the main causes of foreclosures.

Non partisans don't start a sentence by saying:

"but unlike McCain..." [}:)]

Wrong, the government DID strong-arm lenders in local markets into the risky loan business, it's not that friggin' hard, WB:

"The Fed, for instance, warned banks that failure to comply with government guidelines regarding the delivery of "equal credit" could subject them to "civil liability for actual or punitive damages in individual or class actions, with liability for punitive damages being as much as $10,000 in individual actions and the lesser of $500,000 or 1 percent of the creditor's net worth in class actions."

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_590330.html

You are correct that not every mortgage company jumped into the pool.  The CRA was aimed at local-level lenders, not companies like Countrywide, though national lenders were buying bundled assets from local level lenders.  Not once have I ever denied the ****ed up existence of creating a hedged security system.

Let's examine the economy a little closer:

Countrywide claims that income curtailment is the leading cause of mortgage defaults.  The percent they attribute it to doesn't fit the facts.  Up until a few months ago, unemployment has been under 5%.  It's still just barely over 6%.  These defaulted home loans did not just hit the market, and no, not all troubled defaults are attributed to unqualified borrowers.

"So what's driving foreclosures? Here is Countrywide's breakdown -- based on information from its servicing portfolio -- when "cause of foreclosure" is known (80.3%), the breakdown is as follows:
--Curtailment of income: 58.3%
--Illness/Medical: 13.2%
--Divorce: 8.4%
--Investment Prop./Unable to sell: 6.1%
--Low regard for property ownership: 5.5%
--Death: 3.6%
--Payment adjustment: 1.4%
--Other: 3.5%"

"There is one plausible explanation: borrowers were so aggressive -- and so hopeful -- that they essentially planned for economic perfection, and the slightest negative deviation from that plan -- say, an unexpected drop in overtime earnings for hourly workers -- is sending them into default and foreclosure.

But here is an equally plausible explanation: That the "research" is really spin -- Countrywide is eager to answer critics and argue that its own underwriting was not a factor in the foreclosure spike -- that it was entirely unforseen and driven by economic events out of the company's control."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/09/what-causes-for.html

Neptune has some validity in his points.  You either need fresh cash infusion into an economy or borrowed funds to make it grow.  If you don't manufacture or offer products the rest of the world wants on your turf, it's hard to attract fresh cash infusion.  A lot of the expansion we've seen since recovering from the recession of 1992 has been on borrowed funds.  Remember the IPO offerings of the late '90's and all the white collar jobs created on fledgling companies who'd never before turned a profit?  How'd that work out?  Not all that great if you recall the fall-out from that.

BLS stats show there were 17mm more jobs in the U.S. in 2007 than there were in 1997.  There is no underlying crisis other than being over-mortgaged on over-valued real estate.  All other fundamentals are strong up to now.  However, fear is starting to creep into the economy which is curtailing investment in healthy industries, including new job creation, as of now.

Unemployment has hovered between 4 and 6% under Bush, pretty much the same as it was under Clinton and lower than it was during any point in the Reagan years with the exception of 1988.  Median family income has been pretty much stagnant for decades, while per capita has increased.  

There was a significant bump in income in 1999, then a drop the following year.  The only logic I can seem to find is the massive borrowing going on with telecom, internet, and bio-tech start-ups and all the speculative IPO's.  A lot of freshly-minted MBA's were being paid $100K per year with money borrowed from pension funds, venture capitalists, and individual investment accounts.

Many of the tech jobs were in areas where they now have high mortgage default rates.  Why?  Real estate got way over-valued in a hurry with people jockeying for a limited number of homes close in to work.  Others wanted a home they thought befitting of their newly-found income status.  There's also more consumer goods wrapped up in the American dream than there were 20 years ago.  Everyone has to upgrade their home computer every couple of years.  Consumer electronics keep evolving.  It takes cash or credit to have all those toys.

Individuals, corporations, and our government have borrowed their way to prosperity ever since the last recession.  It cannot sustain itself forever, especially for those who can't seem to exercize fiscal restraint or use common sense in borrowing or lending practices.

[Hometown]

Mortgage defaults in high tech areas?  You don't know what you are talking about.

Get on realtor.com and look at properties in the Bay Area -- "The" High Tech area.

The condo in SF that went for $800,000 now is going for $720,000.  Same is true for Oakland and San Jose.  There is so much pent up demand in these areas that their market has been largely maintained and of course Silicon Valley is one of our major economic engines.  San Jose has the highest household income in the U.S.

It's the distant outlying, less desireable areas where you have neighborhoods sitting empty.  Those homes were sold to folks with modest incomes who qualified simply because of lax subprime requirements.  Brokers pushed people into subprime loans telling them that real estate always goes up and they could refinance before their initial low rates reset to higher rates.

By the way, Tulsa has a very high rate of subprime loans.  Many Tulsans who could qualify for standard loans get pushed into subprimes.

I had pretty much reconciled myself to high home prices for the rest of my life, but if you Republicans push us into a depression again, you will see many bargains emerge.

There were fortunes made in the depression by folks who had cash to take advantage of the buying opportunities.

A recession is bargain hunting time for rich folks.  A depression is that multiplied by 20.

[Conan71]

You don't consider over 8200 defaults in San Jose to be a problem?  How about 5400 in default in the Oakland area???

You are aware also that the front range of Colorado is considered a high tech haven as well?

Who is talking out of their arse?

Realty Trac

[Hometown]

I expanded my search to include Ghetto areas in Oakland and San Jose and you are right -- it's softer than I thought.

But you aren't talking high tech workers.  You are talking low income workers from other industries.

[Conan71]

quote:Originally posted by Hometown

I expanded my search to include Ghetto areas in Oakland and San Jose and you are right -- it's softer than I thought.

But you aren't talking high tech workers.  You are talking low income workers from other industries.

High demand and higher incomes in high tech meccas drove the market and over-valuation of real estate when real estate markets started heating up again in '97 '98 or so.  In real estate, a rising tide lifts all ships and a shoal sinks 'em all.  Take a look at where high tech jobs were going in the late '90's and look at what real estate did at the time and continued to do in those areas.

Did you luck out, or do you really have zero concept of how regional home valuation works?

[Hometown]

Honey, I was there when realtors packed buses full of foreign high tech workers with huge amounts of cash and drove them around the Bay Area looking for houses.  That was the beginning of the bubble.

What you don't understand is that everyone, even Tulsa is still eating the profits that were made.

Why do you think housing values have seen signficant increases in Tulsa?  When I bought my home here I set a record for price by square foot in our neighborhood.  That record has since been eclipsed.

Give money to a billionnaire and it buys a $50M painting.  Give money to the middle class and it ripples and bounces around the economy creating jobs.

Luck?  I am a snake, the Chinese say that snakes and dragons are the luckiest signs.  I never discount the value of luck and I have always been very lucky.

But real estate has been a very small part of my life.  I'm a minor celebrity in the art world.  I was what they call a golden boy.

Don't let that get to you.  You're are still young and you have time to turn your life around.  I've always been drawn to beautiful losers.

[we vs us]

lol @ "Honey."