CHALLENGED (title changed due to bedwetter outcry)

[Conan71]

If they want to ignore the surveys asking business owners why it is they are/aren't expanding, that's their prerogative. #1 answer is and has been poor sales. Let's ignore that and worship the confidence fairy, maybe she'll make people feel better. It's worked real well in Spain, Italy, and the UK.

Which surveys are you referring to?  

Business Confidence

The Business Confidence Index is an indicator designed to measure he degree of optimism on the state of the economy that business owners are expressing through their activities of investing and spending. Decreasing business confidence often implies slowing economic growth because business owners are likely to decrease their investment. The idea is that the more confident business owners and managers feel about the economy, their companies, their jobs and incomes, the more likely they are to make investments and purchases. When business confidence is measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index level below 50 means that business owners expecting their company's performance to be weaker in the next year outnumber those expecting stronger performance.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

CompTIA IT Industry Business Confidence Index Takes Step Back in Q3
By CompTIA
Published: Wednesday, Jul. 18, 2012 - 7:28 am
DOWNERS GROVE, Ill., July 18, 2012 -- /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Renewed uncertainty about global economic conditions outweighed more positive sentiments about prospects for the information technology (IT) industry in the latest CompTIA IT Industry Business Confidence Index, the quarterly survey from the leading non-profit association for the IT industry.

The index slipped 2.2 points in Q3, falling to 54.5 on a 100-point scale. By comparison, the Q2 reading of 56.7 was the highest level in more than a year. The six-month outlook projects a modest increase of 3.1 points.

"The unfortunate pattern of the last several years is repeating itself in 2012," said Tim Herbert, vice president, research CompTIA. "Momentum from improving economic fundamentals and positive sentiment fails to sustain itself, stalling at mid-year."

The index is an aggregation of opinions on the U.S. economy, the IT industry and one's company. All three components of the index fell in Q3.

"Any bullishness about the IT industry generally and companies individually was offset by renewed uncertainty about larger economic issues, such as unemployment, stalled earnings at some bellwether companies and softening demand in many overseas markets," Herbert said.

The survey indicates a slight increase in concern among IT industry executives regarding their ability to maintain profit margins. Inevitably, economic malaise leads to greater price sensitivity and decision-making paralysis among many customer segments.

IT firms still expect to increase investments in many areas, though it's likely that in the short-term the rate of growth will slow somewhat. In the Q2 survey, 37 percent of companies indicated they planned to increase expenditures on marketing and advertising. This number fell to 29 percent in Q3. A similar situation exists for spending increases associated with capital investments, new technology purchases, business travel and staffing.

On the hiring front, medium size firms (100 – 499 employees) are most likely to add new staff in the next six months. Overall, 32 percent of firms plan to increase staffing and 54 percent plan to remain at current levels.

The CompTIA IT Industry Business Confidence Index for Q3 is based on a July 2012 online survey of IT industry executives and professionals. A total of 445 IT companies participated.

CompTIA is the voice of the world's information technology (IT) industry. Visit www.comptia.org or follow CompTIA at www.facebook.com/CompTIA and twitter.com/comptia.

SOURCE CompTIA

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/07/18/4639364/comptia-it-industry-business-confidence.html#storylink=cpy

Just released today:

According to the latest survey of small businesses by the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses), optimism has slumped to an eight-month low. This result comes on the heels of last week's disappointing ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey covering the manufacturing segment of the American economy. The ISM reading indicated that manufacturing was contracting for the first time in more than three years. Keep in mind that for most of the current economic recovery, manufacturing has been a bright spot. But the economic hardships in the euro zone and the slowdown in China and other emerging market economies have taken a toll on the more export-centric companies covered by the ISM survey.

Small business optimism, unlike the ISM manufacturing index, never did climb back to levels normally associated with a "good" economic environment after the most recent recession officially ended in mid-2009. When small businesses do not have a positive outlook on the future, they tend to be unwilling to hire additional employees unless absolutely necessary. In addition, cash reserves build as investment in expansion wanes. Indeed, the main concern for small businesses has been a lack of customers and fears the U.S. economy will slip back into recession. But there is more at work here than fears the economy will stumble; businesses are unable to confidently make strategic decisions and plan for the future. Why? Unfortunately, most of the lack of clarity is coming from our elected representatives in Washington.

Low business confidence trickles through the entire economy. It negatively affects consumer confidence and spending. In a consumer consumption-oriented economy like the one we have in the United States, when businesses are not hiring in decent numbers and wages are barely rising, discretionary spending by consumers typically suffers. The stock market also tends to feel the effects. Sure, the market has bounced back in a big way from the Armageddon levels seen during the financial crisis but valuations remain well below the historical average based on most metrics.
Can Washington provide answers to the questions business owners need? According to the small business survey, uncertainties over tax levels, the regulatory environment and the cost to hire an additional employee are all having a detrimental effect on optimism. Right now, gridlock in our nation's capital is one of the key factors holding back the economy and the stock market in our opinion.

Small business confidence needs to rise in order for the economy to get consistently up and running at anything close to an average rate of growth. Our year-end 1400-1450 target range for the S&P 500 assumes we will see a modest, sustained increase in the optimism levels of business owners that flows through to consumers and investors. So while business optimism may be down for now, a helping hand up from our legislators in Washington would go a long way toward restoring confidence in the economic outlook. And that is what is needed to push equity valuations higher over the next 12-24 months.

Past Performance is no guarantee of future results. This article was produced on July 11, 2012 by Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Advisors Senior Equity Strategist, and provided courtesy of Bhupen Agrawal, Managing Director - Branch Manager of Wells Fargo Advisors' Midland office, at 684-7335. The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, or instrumental to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request at 684-7335. Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, member SIPC, is a registered broker-dealer and a separate non-bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. Investments and insurance products: NOT FDIC-Insured NO Bank Guarantee MAY Lose Value


Read more: Low business confidence is hindering entire economy - Mywesttexas.com: Business http://www.mywesttexas.com/business/article_8d081499-735d-55ba-84f9-0f4687fed715.html#ixzz210KjUbBJ
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution

[nathanm]

Gee, you even highlighted this part:

Indeed, the main concern for small businesses has been a lack of customers

From the NFIB report:



Given the complaints about taxes haven't changed much in 26 years, I find it hard to care much about that line. It's a constant complaint, and one that is to be expected. Who likes paying taxes? Sales, on the other hand, still beating out everything else, although not as badly as 2009-2011.

[Conan71]

I am so thankful that we can get an economics lesson every day from Professors gaspar and conan. They just must know everything about every business in the country.

I do work in a business which crosses multiple sectors of the economy:

Commercial construction; pressure vessel fabrication; oil and gas exploration, production & refining; manufacturing- anything from twine, chemicals, plastics, paint, wood, glass, you name it raw material processing to finished goods.

Every day I talk to purchasing managers, facility engineers, small business owners, CEO's, CFO's, sales people, and maintenance mechanics.

I don't pretend to be an expert on economics, but as a sales engineer, I listen and pay attention to what customers tell me are their challenges (anything from logistical to financing, to overall growth or lack thereof), goals, and needs.  Quite often that conversation crosses into business in general and what's going well and what is not going well for them.  It's important for me to know long-term growth objectives to make sure we meet any future planning needs when we do a design-build project.

I learn a lot about business and why businesses are or are not expanding at the moment from actually talking to people who make those decisions.  Real life, every day people, not nameless faceless polls.

[Conan71]

Gee, you even highlighted this part:

And gee, I expected you to cherry pick that and leave out a very important element to why the economy is still sluggish. 

and fears the U.S. economy will slip back into recession. But there is more at work here than fears the economy will stumble; businesses are unable to confidently make strategic decisions and plan for the future. Why? Unfortunately, most of the lack of clarity is coming from our elected representatives in Washington.

Low business confidence trickles through the entire economy. It negatively affects consumer confidence and spending. In a consumer consumption-oriented economy like the one we have in the United States, when businesses are not hiring in decent numbers and wages are barely rising, discretionary spending by consumers typically suffers.

With an optimistic outlook, companies will, in fact, make capital expenditures and hire new employees in advance of a sharp uptick in demand.

[nathanm]

If you want to play the blame game, you might look at the obstructionists who nearly shut down the government last year.

[Teatownclown]

If you want to play the blame game, you might look at the obstructionists who nearly shut down the government last year.

Yea. Those creeps thought hurting their own economy would win them the White House. Just incredible.

[Teatownclown]

Conan, the stock market has done amazingly well considering the market was %50 lower when Obama came into office....

I can't believe if RMoney gets elected a drug addicted drop out radio talk show host could be giving Mitten's direction...

[Conan71]

Conan, the stock market has done amazingly well considering the market was %50 lower when Obama came into office....

I can't believe if RMoney gets elected a drug addicted drop out radio talk show host could be giving Mitten's direction...

Obsessed with bogeymen...

The stock market reached historic highs under the Bush admin, don't forget and the Dow average really doesn't mean anything to someone who has been out of work or underemployed for two or three years.

[Conan71]

If you want to play the blame game, you might look at the obstructionists who nearly shut down the government last year.

Who's playing a blame game?  I'm simply proving that confidence has a large part of a recession or recovery.

Was this one of the surveys you were referring to which said lack of demand was the biggest issue?

http://jan.ocregister.com/tag/small-business-majority/

[Teatownclown]

Obsessed with bogeymen crazy people.

The stock market reached historic highs under the Bush admin, don't forget and the Dow average really doesn't mean anything to someone who has been out of work or underemployed for two or three years.

That's not how you measure an improving situation. The Dow went down during Shrubs term.

[Conan71]

That's not how you measure an improving situation. The Dow went down during Shrubs term.

And you are right, the Dow has little basis in reality in measuring an improving situation under Obama. 

IIRC, with some gyrations, the Dow went from roughly 10,000 when Bush took office to a high of over 14,100 in October of 2007.  That's a gain.

[Teatownclown]

And you are right, the Dow has little basis in reality in measuring an improving situation under Obama. 

IIRC, with some gyrations, the Dow went from roughly 10,000 when Bush took office to a high of over 14,100 in October of 2007.  That's a gain.

And that's a lie....

[Conan71]

And that's a lie....

I'm sorry, what's a lie?  That you said a gain in the Dow is not an indicator of an improving situation or that the Dow reached 14,164 on October 9, 2007.

[Teatownclown]

I'm sorry, what's a lie?  That you said a gain in the Dow is not an indicator of an improving situation or that the Dow reached 14,164 on October 9, 2007.

NO....the way you make it look like Shrubs term ended in 2007.....that was a lie. But hey Conan, you righties can't recognize a real lie nor can you honestly report the facts .... you all just love taking what's stated out of context and manipulating it like a drug addict drop out radio talk show host and FOX News attempts.

[RecycleMichael]

Dow under Clinton
start 3,310    end 10,587

Dow under Bush
start 10587    end 7,949

Dow under Obama
start 7,949    so far 12,908