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Arlen...where ya goin?

Started by Townsend, April 28, 2009, 11:14:44 AM

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buckeye

Quote from: FOTD on April 28, 2009, 12:56:13 PMChange has come to America. Love it or leave it.
Oh ho ho, that's rich.

No change here, anyway.  Some rotten politician acting in bald-faced self interest.

Conan71

Bold move by Specter if what happened in the '94 mid-term happens again in '10.  I think this move speaks more to himself and his own preservation than what's wrong with the GOP as a whole.  He's going to get tough opposition in a GOP primary.  Someone at the DNC has helped clear the way for him to have a walk-through Democratic primary.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

rwarn17588

Quote from: Conan71 on April 28, 2009, 02:18:14 PM
Bold move by Specter if what happened in the '94 mid-term happens again in '10.  I think this move speaks more to himself and his own preservation than what's wrong with the GOP as a whole. 


Well, duh. Self-preservation is a powerful thing.

"Hmmm ... I could stay in a party that's become more right-leaning than I'd like and less popular. Or I could align myself with a party that's more in standing with my views and has become more popular.

"I think I'll take what's behind Door No. 2, Monty!"

As for a repeat in 2010 of what happened in 1994, I don't see it happening. The demographics are strongly against it.

RecycleMichael

He was a liberal republican whose party left him first.

The only republicans who got elected or re-elected this last time were the far right of the party. I don't blame him from wanting to join the party that most closely follows his beliefs.
Power is nothing till you use it.

Conan71

Quote from: rwarn17588 on April 28, 2009, 02:26:06 PM
Well, duh. Self-preservation is a powerful thing.

"Hmmm ... I could stay in a party that's become more right-leaning than I'd like and less popular. Or I could align myself with a party that's more in standing with my views and has become more popular.

"I think I'll take what's behind Door No. 2, Monty!"

As for a repeat in 2010 of what happened in 1994, I don't see it happening. The demographics are strongly against it.

No one was predicting the '94 overhaul in May 1993 either.  Specter is running from his voting record and probably looking at Dem support of the national races in '08 in Pennsylvania.  My personal bet is Specter knows he's going to be crucified by conservative Republicans in Pa.  He's worried about facing Pat Toomey in a primary.  He's gambling that he can beat Toomey in a general election with the backing of Democrats.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/04/less-than-2-wee.html

I don't know what you are angling at with "demographics".  Public sentiment on how well Congress is dealing with the economy, environment, and foreign relations will determine the outcome of the mid-terms and whether or not the overall direction of the country seems to be going the right way.  By demographics, if you mean younger, more idealistic voters, they generally aren't going to turn out in droves like a Presidential year. 
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

USRufnex


rwarn17588

Quote from: Conan71 on April 28, 2009, 03:11:53 PM

I don't know what you are angling at with "demographics".  Public sentiment on how well Congress is dealing with the economy, environment, and foreign relations will determine the outcome of the mid-terms and whether or not the overall direction of the country seems to be going the right way.  By demographics, if you mean younger, more idealistic voters, they generally aren't going to turn out in droves like a Presidential year. 


A poll a few days ago had just 21 percent of voters identifying themselves as Republican, which hit a 26-year low. The rest are independents or Democrats. It's an overall trend, not just young voters.

And more young voters are coming online in the next 18 months. As the old conservatives die out or more are driven away from the GOP, it's not looking good. Demonizing Hispanics, gay marriage and a slew of other issues will do that.

Conan71

Quote from: rwarn17588 on April 28, 2009, 03:35:33 PM
A poll a few days ago had just 21 percent of voters identifying themselves as Republican, which hit a 26-year low. The rest are independents or Democrats. It's an overall trend, not just young voters.

And more young voters are coming online in the next 18 months. As the old conservatives die out or more are driven away from the GOP, it's not looking good. Demonizing Hispanics, gay marriage and a slew of other issues will do that.

Again, where was the poll taken?  Downtown Detroit?  I'm as disaffected as anyone could be by the far right of the GOP.  They "identify" themselves this way or are they "registered" this way?  21% sounds suspect, considering exit polls from the November elections showed 32% of voters as being R.  I could easily "categorize" myself as Independent, but I'm "registered" Republican.  I'm registered as a Republican mainly because in Tulsa we generally send Republicans to the House and Senate overwhelmingly and I want to have a say starting with the primaries.

It's entirely possible that if the actions of Congress do nothing and the economy worsens in two years that people are going to be much more worried about fiscal issues and draconian laws than gay marriage, Hispanics, and horned owls.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Wilbur

It only boiled down to one thing....  he was about to lose re-election to a different Republican because his own electorate had enough of how far left he was voting.  He was against most Republican principles, so he shouldn't have been surprised the Republican voters were about to kick him out.

How much difference does it make?  Depends on politics.  What is his promised?  He'll vote more Democrat if the Democrats paid him off.  If he does what he says, nothing changes since not all Democrats/Republicans vote in lock step on most issues anyway.

rwarn17588

Quote from: Conan71 on April 28, 2009, 04:43:37 PM
Again, where was the poll taken?  Downtown Detroit?  I'm as disaffected as anyone could be by the far right of the GOP.  They "identify" themselves this way or are they "registered" this way?  21% sounds suspect, considering exit polls from the November elections showed 32% of voters as being R. 


Poll was taken nationwide by ABC/Washington Post on April 24. Other polls in recent months also have shown the voting public trending away from Republicans. As the GOP keeps shrinking, they keep acting more extreme, and the more people are turned off by them. Apparently your disaffection has gone nationwide.

You can say they're suspect all you want. You also voiced your suspicions about Obama having a solid lead over McCain during the last few months of the election campaign. Sure, a poll or two can be an outlier. But when you have 400 polls taken in the last few weeks of an election, and a total of about five show a lead for McCain, that's what you call a solid trend for the other guy. And guess what? Obama posts a solid win on Election Day.

You can doubt polls if you wish. But doubt them at your peril.

cannon_fodder

Quote from: FOTD on April 28, 2009, 12:56:13 PM
And Cannon, don't be afraid of the new majority.

Change has come to America. Love it or leave it.

1) There is NEW majority?  I thought the Dems have had the Senate for a long time now. 

2) I was very clear that I fear a super majority of any party.  It's a bad idea.

3) I wondered how long it would take the Liberals to change their tune and adopt this stupid "love it or leave it" attitude.  Didn't take very long.
- - - - - - - - -
I crush grooves.

FOTD

Quote from: RecycleMichael on April 28, 2009, 02:29:20 PM
He was a liberal republican whose party left him first.

The only republicans who got elected or re-elected this last time were the far right of the party. I don't blame him from wanting to join the party that most closely follows his beliefs.

RM, bud, stick to city and environmental threads. You just hardly ever get the right political takes. Nothing personal, but good golly. The only reason he switched over is to retain a Senate seat. He'll have a tough time in the upcoming primary and the general has the prospect of opening a seat for a Real Democrat. He's bailing to avoid that fight and will block real Dems from getting in. Screw him, he's been worthless a long time. The only thing going for this guy is he's an OU grad.

FOTD

Quote from: cannon_fodder on April 28, 2009, 09:42:11 PM
1) There is NEW majority?  I thought the Dems have had the Senate for a long time now. 

2) I was very clear that I fear a super majority of any party.  It's a bad idea.

3) I wondered how long it would take the Liberals to change their tune and adopt this stupid "love it or leave it" attitude.  Didn't take very long.

YOU BETCHA!

(turnabout IS fair play)

Conan71

Quote from: rwarn17588 on April 28, 2009, 09:26:06 PM
Poll was taken nationwide by ABC/Washington Post on April 24. Other polls in recent months also have shown the voting public trending away from Republicans. As the GOP keeps shrinking, they keep acting more extreme, and the more people are turned off by them. Apparently your disaffection has gone nationwide.

You can say they're suspect all you want. You also voiced your suspicions about Obama having a solid lead over McCain during the last few months of the election campaign. Sure, a poll or two can be an outlier. But when you have 400 polls taken in the last few weeks of an election, and a total of about five show a lead for McCain, that's what you call a solid trend for the other guy. And guess what? Obama posts a solid win on Election Day.

You can doubt polls if you wish. But doubt them at your peril.

Yeah, well the election was rigged, Diebold messed everything up after the Israeli's ran all the polls for ABC News that showed a closer race.  Some kind of landslide those voting machines conjured up....
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Cats Cats Cats

Quote from: Conan71 on April 29, 2009, 12:33:35 AM
"Yeah, well the election was rigged, Diebold messed everything up"

I know this is completely out of context and completely off the thread topic.  But Diebold had their voting machines recording votes to ACCESS DATABASES.  If you used their "vote" program it required a password.  But you could just browse the folders on the computer, open the database and change the votes in a table.  That is all there was that you had to do to change the votes.  Not secure at ALL.  You could teach just about anybody who could use a mouse how to change the votes.  If you were more advanced and had the systems networked you could change all of them at once.

*Off topic rant ending*

Supermajority is bad.  However, how else are we going to get rid of the moron Republicans that are in office now.  A supermajority is worth it to get rid of the dead weight on the other end.