Election predictions

[pmcalk]

With one week out, does anyone want to make some predictions?

Mayor?

Auditor?

Councilors?

I'll start by going out on a limb--I predict that GT Bynum will keep his seat.

[sgrizzle]

Bartlett 41
Adelson 46
Perkins 13

Wood 58
Doerflinger 42

Gomez 53
Barnes 47

[RecycleMichael]

Adelson 38
Bartlett 34
Perkins 28

Wood 52
Doerflinger 48

Gomez 50
Barnes 50
recount

[sgrizzle]

Adelson 38
Bartlett 34
Perkins 28

Wood 52
Doerflinger 48

Gomez 50
Barnes 50
recount

What? A few weeks ago you scoffed at me saying Perkins would get 13 and now you think he'll get 28?

[Townsend]

What? A few weeks ago you scoffed at me saying Perkins would get 13 and now you think he'll get 28?

He's on TV now.  That means he'll get some votes even though voters won't remember which one he is...just that they've heard his name.

[cannon_fodder]

I'm pretty much in line with RM.

Adelson wins by a comfortable but not huge margin.

Bartlett has a disappointing showing but good enough to be an also ran.

Perkins surprises many because:
1) Negative campaigning by the "major party" candidates.
2) Growing name recognition because he is willing to talk to anyone.
3) Growing discontent with the old guard candidates for mayor.

[PonderInc]

I think Perkins is gaining support simply by not being "one of them."  When both major candidates go negative from the beginning, it turns people off.  Perkins may not have the knowledge and experience necessary to run a city (he may not be alone in that way), but he's at least not wasting time being nasty.

For many, it's a big turnoff when all you do is "swift boat" your opponent.  I question the leadership abilities of folks who go negative in a campaign.  It's not a very useful tactic in local politics...especially when you are trying to solve problems, build coalitions and get people to work together in a community.  

I want candidates who can tell me about their vision, get people excited about it, and explain their strategies for achieving it.  I don't want folks who waste time attacking the opposition...especially when they have to stretch the truth just to make ugly rumors more virulent.

This campaign has been a total turn off.  Ugh.

[cannon_fodder]

Ponder:  yet another problem with a two party system.  When you assume (usually rightly so) that there are only two viable candidates - it's easier to beat the other guy up than espouse the positives of yourself.  If I can convince a % of the voters that Adelson likes child molesters, I win.  It doesn't matter what my positions, qualifications, or records are.

Throw in (an) additional candidate(s) and that tactic no longer works.

[RecycleMichael]

What? A few weeks ago you scoffed at me saying Perkins would get 13 and now you think he'll get 28?

A few weeks is forever in election time.

[custosnox]

A few weeks is forever in election time.

And we still have another week left, and there is no telling what can happen in that time frame.

[FOTD]

Bartlett %44
Adelson %38
Perkins  %18

The devil is wondering what % of Tulsa votes....my guess is %9 of the city population.

Care to guess?

[sgrizzle]

A few weeks is forever in election time.

So what you're saying is that I'm ahead of my time.

[Townsend]

The devil is wondering what % of Tulsa votes....my guess is %9 of the city population.

Care to guess?

I think you're being generous.

[MDepr2007]

6% undervote for Mayor  ( whats the usual average? )

[shadows]

One could easily predict the class of mid-town voters will select the next mayor who has available twice the funds that the job pays.  That the number of voters will be limited to less than 20% of the eligible's voters which by the early count of three mid-town precincts has determined the outcome of such elections. One could predict that this is the costliest city election recorded.  It could become a national record for a city of about 380,000 entering into a deep recession.  If a federal grand jury is in session it could draw their attention as why such an effort would be made to control the city for four years.  As to predicting the outcome one might say its "cut and dried already hanging out in the sun to cure".