Election predictions

[pmcalk]

That true, but you're not accounting for the Republican Party gaining in strength in Oklahoma over the past 10, 15 years. It's much easier for a Republican to do well in this state than it was.

Hell, even LaFortune, even as lousy as a mayor as he was, surged in the past week or so of the campaign and came within 4 points of Taylor. It's not wise to dismiss the GOP vote.

I don't think really disagree much, but I would add that 4 points, when the vast majority of people always vote party lines, is actually a pretty significant difference.  Also, Taylor went into the general election after a pretty nasty democratic primary, and I understand there was a low turnout on the northside (though overall, the turnout was high).  I have been told that the number of democrats vs. repubicans in the city of Tulsa--not county is actually pretty close.  The difference is that the republicans are more reliable in turnout.  Adelson has done a good deal to reach out to the north side--if they go vote, he could pull it off.

[Wrinkle]

Apparently, the World didn't like the survey results for the Council races.

[sgrizzle]

But it's a representative sample of the city of Tulsa. The margin of error is low, too. Even with a huge sample size, the margin of error is still going to be about 2 percent.

I'm not saying Adelson doesn't win. But I think has chances to win are only about 40 percent or so. A lot of things have to go his way (strong undecideds, good Dem turnout, poor GOP turnout, Perkins' campaign fading) for him to do it.

A representative sample? If it took 7 days that sounds like one person doing it by calling home phone numbers, likely during 8-5. That means you're going to be getting white republican housewives in midtown and south Tulsa. Even if you tried pulling from different polling districts, there is still going to be some skew to the numbers. I think you are missing one of the biggest factors in this race and that is the city council elections. Most of south and wealthy midtown already has their council race decided and thanks to TW, thinks their mayoral candidate has it in the bag, why would they vote?

[buckeye]

...ne person doing it by calling home phone numbers, likely during 8-5. That means you're going to be getting white republican housewives in midtown and south Tulsa.

...and all the welfare slackers drinking beer for breakfast at home. 

[sgrizzle]

...and all the welfare slackers drinking beer for breakfast at home. 

They are more likely to not have a home phone line.

[PonderInc]

I was wondering about the polling methodology, too.  In the past few years I know of many people who have eliminated their home phones and just carry cell phones. (It seems like most of these folks tend to be younger...or at least under 40.)

How does that affect the polling?  Surely it would eliminate entire groups of people from the list of "likely voters" who could participate in the poll...

[sgrizzle]

I was wondering about the polling methodology, too.  In the past few years I know of many people who have eliminated their home phones and just carry cell phones. (It seems like most of these folks tend to be younger...or at least under 40.)

How does that affect the polling?  Surely it would eliminate entire groups of people from the list of "likely voters" who could participate in the poll...

It eliminates low income due to not owning home phones, younger ages due to using only cell phones, etc.

I have a hme phone for basically free, although it seems mainly used to receive incessant political calls.

[TURobY]

...although it seems mainly used to receive incessant political calls.

One of the many reasons that I got rid of my landline.

[SXSW]

It eliminates low income due to not owning home phones, younger ages due to using only cell phones, etc.

I have a hme phone for basically free, although it seems mainly used to receive incessant political calls.

I ditched my land line 6 years ago and to this day no one I know my age (mid 20's) has a land line at their house.  With cell phones what is the point?

[custosnox]

We have a home phone that is never answered and I really don't even know why we keep it beyond needing a hardline for the security alarm. 

[TURobY]

We have a home phone that is never answered and I really don't even know why we keep it beyond needing a hardline for the security alarm. 

Many alarm companies offer satellite service which means that it can send signal to the company without a phone line.

[custosnox]

Many alarm companies offer satellite service which means that it can send signal to the company without a phone line.

Eh, we've had the phone for  years and most likely won't change that. 

Just heard that it was said on the raido that the current pridections has Bartlett taking the race.  Anyone else hear this?

[Wrinkle]

Offhand, I'd have to suggest any poll taken exclusively by telephone would provide almost meaningless data.

Besides the cell phone class, who tend to be omitted entirely, many people choose not to answer or respond to telephone surveys these days. So, the super set becomes those who will and also have a land line.

Not to suggest the survey invalid, it is probably accurate for what it is, just that what it is isn't meaningful, at least as it relates to the election at hand.

Not sure I'd have even had presented these results, unless they fit my agenda.

[Townsend]

I'm not sure how any of it will turn out but my polling place in 4 was busier than it has been in a long time this morning.

I was happy to see that.

[kylieosu]

I'm not sure how any of it will turn out but my polling place in 4 was busier than it has been in a long time this morning.

I was happy to see that.

Mine (Cherry Street) wasn't busy at all.