Is John Sullivan Toast this November?

[eDuece]

     Other than name recognition, thanks to his eight year incumbency and franking privileges, our current Republican first district Congressman, John Sullivan, doesn't seem to have much going for him this time around. He already has three strikes against him. He's a four term incumbent (That's bad!) He made the fatal mistake of voting for TARP back in '07 (That's even worse!) and his admitted stay at Betty Ford is not a big plus with evangelicals.
   The announced Republican contenders are all hard core Tea Party pro free enterprise, tax cutting, freedom loving, gun supporting, government slashing, anti incumbent conservatives. It will be interesting to see how much pressure these candidates and their Tea Party supporters can put on the local Republican Rinos to choose sides and support a "true conservative" candidate rather than Sullivan before the July 27 primary. Without an announced Democrat to sink their teeth into, these folks definitely have their sights set on our "not nearly conservative enough" stalwart John Sullivan.
   Any opinions?

[sgrizzle]

Who is the competition?

[eDuece]

   The two announced (but not filed yet) Republican contenders are Nathan Dahm and Kenneth Rice, both hard core conservatives  There's also some lady named Fran Moghaddam, a complete unknown  also  in the running
Here's a link to a Dahm backrounder in the Tulsa Beacon, the local conservative voice.
   http://www.tulsabeacon.com/?p=3196.
And some more on Ken Rice from the  Beacon
   http://www.tulsabeacon.com/?p=4109
and a slam on Sullivan, also in the Beacon
        http://www.tulsabeacon.com/?p=4144

[sgrizzle]

Fran ran in 2008

[Breadburner]

He is in no danger.....

[dsjeffries]

I saw Drunk O'Sully at Tulsa Tough last night. Took all I had to refrain from giving him a piece of my mind. Or a beer. Who could resist those shenanigans?

[Conan71]

I saw Drunk O'Sully at Tulsa Tough last night. Took all I had to refrain from giving him a piece of my mind. Or a beer. Who could resist those shenanigans?

We said hi to each other outside Dilly Deli, he hadn't been drinking.  If Rep Sullivan were a Democrat, you guys would call us mean spirited if we kept after him about a disease he faced and apparently has under control.

I'm glad you resisted the impulse to act like a total jerk. Our public servants have a right to privacy and to enjoy themselves in public without getting the prick treatment.

Keep it classy, you are better than that. 

[rwarn17588]

We said hi to each other outside Dilly Deli, he hadn't been drinking.  If Rep Sullivan were a Democrat, you guys would call us mean spirited if we kept after him about a disease he faced and apparently has under control.

"Apparently" being the crucial word. I have no idea whether he's stayed clean or not.

[rwarn17588]

He made the fatal mistake of voting for TARP back in '07 (That's even worse!) and his admitted stay at Betty Ford is not a big plus with evangelicals.

Why was voting for TARP a "fatal" mistake? Coburn even voted for it. Would you rather have the world financial system collapse and end up with 30 percent unemployment, as several senators (including Coburn) said would have happened?

I've criticized Coburn many times on this forum for his glaring inconsistency of being a deficit hawk and yet voting for TARP. But I think he ultimately did the right thing. The consequences of not enacting TARP were too grave to contemplate.

[Nik]

Is there a Dem running?

[sgrizzle]

Is there a Dem running?

No dem announced.

As far as the two candidates mentioned earlier in the thread, I bet they have no shot either. Getting writeups in the Tulsa Beacon just means you have a chance to convince people who aren't voting for Sullivan, to not vote for Sullivan.

I've talked to Charlie Biggs several times, even been in the paper, but his paper is generally just reinforcing the already existing opinions of it's readers, not changing people's minds.

[Cats Cats Cats]

Who is the competition?

Naty lite and smirnoff ice

[Cats Cats Cats]

I heard he was going to have a local artist design his campaign signs.  Any ody heard who it might be?  I have been looking for a pic but haven't found it.

[eDuece]

So the consensus seems to be that Sullivan is a shoo in despite being an incumbent and having voted for TARP. and that the local Tea Party movement doesn't really have enough votes or clout to even cause him to break a sweat.
   As for what's wrong with voting for TARP, it sure got Bob Bennett run off the Republican ranch in Utah and Rand Paul nominated in Kentucky. Unless I'm reading all those picket signs wrong, the Tea Party folks are convinced that all that doomsday big financial disaster scenario is a lot of left wing liberal malarkey. They're convinced that the free market should have been allowed to work its "creative destruction" and we would all have been better off and freer (if poorer) for it.

[sgrizzle]

So the consensus seems to be that Sullivan is a shoo in despite being an incumbent and having voted for TARP. and that the local Tea Party movement doesn't really have enough votes or clout to even cause him to break a sweat.
   As for what's wrong with voting for TARP, it sure got Bob Bennett run off the Republican ranch in Utah and Rand Paul nominated in Kentucky. Unless I'm reading all those picket signs wrong, the Tea Party folks are convinced that all that doomsday big financial disaster scenario is a lot of left wing liberal malarkey. They're convinced that the free market should have been allowed to work its "creative destruction" and we would all have been better off and freer (if poorer) for it.

Keep in mind that all of the "real" republican candidates combined couldn't beat Dewey, who didn't even show up for many campaign events. His competition may all be fine candidates but aligning yourself with the tea party in Oklahoma scares off a lot of voters and donors worse than running riverside with nothing but underwear on your head.