Global Warming/Climate Change/Global Weirding?

[Hoss]

I have family in Miami, so Ill just remind myself its all just a Chinese hoax.

Or maybe you can subscribe to this moron's theory?

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/al-roker-rips-rush-limbaugh-hurricane-irma-conspiracy-theory-article-1.3475736

[erfalf]

I'm no Limbaugh fan, but I would hope that if Roker had actually read the transcript or heard the show (which I know is incredibly unlikely), he probably wouldn't have said what he said.

But as it stands, insulting Limbaugh is like insulting Nazi's, in other words, fair game for any reason, even if it's made up.

Not once did Limbaugh call the hurricane news fake. He simply noted that it is routinely hyped by the various news outlets who we all know have transformed regular weather news to all storm coverage. It's all part of creating interest in watching or reading, a perfectly known process of newsrooms.

He noted that Galveston was the course most promoted for Harvey but it was mostly spared compared to Houston. He suggested you be prepared at all times (incl filling up bottles of water from your taps vs. rushing out to buy bottled water) but to simply be aware that a hurricane often takes a path quite different from predicted and that panic buttons are often created when not necessary. But he never once said the hurricane news itself was fake. In other words be smart, be prepared but try not to let the media rush you into a panic.

But he said it was fake cause The Today Show "weatherman" said so... OK.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I'm just waiting to see how much QT raises their gas prices this time. 

I filled up at QT on Monday at $2.39.   Yesterday at OnCue (OKC area) regular is $2.18.  Gonna fill up at lunch for the ride back to town.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I'm no Limbaugh fan, but I would hope that if Roker had actually read the transcript or heard the show (which I know is incredibly unlikely), he probably wouldn't have said what he said.

But as it stands, insulting Limbaugh is like insulting Nazi's, in other words, fair game for any reason, even if it's made up.

Not once did Limbaugh call the hurricane news fake. He simply noted that it is routinely hyped by the various news outlets who we all know have transformed regular weather news to all storm coverage. It's all part of creating interest in watching or reading, a perfectly known process of newsrooms.

He noted that Galveston was the course most promoted for Harvey but it was mostly spared compared to Houston. He suggested you be prepared at all times (incl filling up bottles of water from your taps vs. rushing out to buy bottled water) but to simply be aware that a hurricane often takes a path quite different from predicted and that panic buttons are often created when not necessary. But he never once said the hurricane news itself was fake. In other words be smart, be prepared but try not to let the media rush you into a panic.

But he said it was fake cause The Today Show "weatherman" said so... OK.

Here is what he said.  Who does not have a bunch of empty plastic bottles laying around...??   Right.  Does that mean he keeps all his trash for weeks at a time, just in case of hurricane??   Sounds like a mental disease.   He is right that bottled water is stupid.  Use the tap water.

And then he goes on to attack the weather reporters that somehow telling people what is coming over the next 2 weeks is highly politicized.

"The reason that I am leery of forecasts this far out, folks, is because I see how the system works. Now, I don't mean this to be a personal attack on anybody, but the one thing that's undeniable throughout our culture is that everything has been politicized. And in that sense much of our public information system, including from the government, from the Drive-By Media, has been corrupted. It has been corrupted by the individual biases and whatever present bigotry of the people who hold these positions."

No.  It isn't.  It is reporting on what is seen now, and using the best models available now to predict what is gonna happen in a week.  Or two weeks.  But a well know science denier like that wouldn't understand anything related to science.   He also said he gathers all the information he can, then makes up his own mind on whether it is right or not.  So, yeah, he is telling people not to be concerned, because the weather service is actually just a political conspiracy exploiting fear.

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2017/09/05/my-analysis-of-the-hurricane-irma-panic/

He says the hype creates a "vicious cycle" - his words - of people actually preparing for whatever might be coming.  And yet, he is also one of the hawkers of gold as a 'prepper' financial plan!

"Well, the TV stations begin reporting this and the panic begins to increase. And then people end up going to various stores to stock up on water and whatever they might need for home repairs and batteries and all this that they're advised to get, and a vicious circle is created. You have these various retail outlets who spend a lot of advertising dollars with the local media."



Here is just a tiny bit more of his hyperbole, and flat out lying...which is what he does best.  Nobody has said we are all gonna die.  Every single weather report I have seen - and there are plenty of them - have said this is big.  Get ready.  Leave.  No panic, get prepared and act.  Bimbaugh is the one who is jumping to the extreme position.  He said;


"Here's another thing. Have you seen the graphics of these hurricanes as depicted on TV or on the internet? They're these giant, flaming red, "Oh, my God, Mabel, look, it's bigger than the Gulf of Mexico. We don't have a prayer, Mabel. Even if it strikes 300 miles away, we are dead!"


Here...you can listen to his rationalization....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rush-limbaugh-says-hurricane-irma-is-conspiracy-evacuates-anyway_us_59b29c31e4b0354e44115aa8


Also, as an interesting side note, if Irma was overlaid on Oklahoma, it would reach 50 miles beyond each border into KS, TX, AR....

[patric]

"May as well... announce this. I'm not going to get into details because of the security nature of things, but it turns out that we will not be able to do the program here tomorrow," Limbaugh said Thursday. "We'll be on the air next week, folks, from parts unknown."

https://thinkprogress.org/limbaugh-to-evacuate-south-florida-after-claiming-irma-was-a-hoax-cb3fb5fb35b8/

[guido911]

My favorite tweet on weather, er, climate change:

2006: "Hurricanes are going to be worse and more frequent!"
2007:
2008:
2009:
2010:
2011:
2012:
2013:
2014:
2015:
2016:
2017: "Told you so!"

[swake]

My favorite tweet on weather, er, climate change:

2006: "Hurricanes are going to be worse and more frequent!"
2007: Humberto, Dean
2008: Gustav, Dolly, Ike
2009:
2010: Igor
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy, Isaac
2013: Ingrid, Manuel
2014: Arthur
2015:
2016: Hermine, Matthew
2017: Harvey, Irma

[dbacksfan 2.0]

Hurricanes and what category there were since 2005.

• Hurricane Matthew: Oct. 2016, Matthew devastated the southeast, Florida in particular, as a Category 4 storm before weakening to a Category 1 and making landfall in South Carolina .

• Hurricane Hermine: Sept. 2016, this Category 1 storm was the first hurricane to hit Florida since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

• Hurricane Arthur: July 2014, this storm whipped North Carolina's Outer Banks with winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2.

• Hurricane Sandy: Oct. 2012, Superstorm Sandy, the largest Atlantic system on record, slammed into New Jersey. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit the northeastern U.S. in 40 years and the second-costliest in the nation's history.

•Hurricane Isaac: Aug. 2012, this deadly Category 1 storm hit the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi right around the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

• Hurricane Irene: Sept. 2011, Irene hit North Carolina as a Category 1 storm. The storm caused major flooding in the northeast, and Irene's effects were felt along the entire Eastern seaboard.

• Hurricane Ike: Sept. 2008, the last hurricane to strike Texas was Hurricane Ike, a powerful Category 2 storm that caused billions in damage and became the third most costly storm in the U.S., after Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina.

• Hurricane Gustav: Sept. 2008, tens of thousands evacuated before this Category 2 storm hit the Louisiana coast, New Orlean's first major storm since Katrina.

• Hurricane Dolly: July 2008, Dolly made landfall in Texas as a Category 2 storm and gradually weakened to a tropical storm as it progressed.

•Hurricane Humberto:Sept. 2007, although initially weak this record-breaking storm intensified rapidly before making landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm.

• Hurricane Wilma: Oct. 2005, this intense Category 3 storm wreaked havoc when it made landfall in Florida. Wilma was one of the most powerful storms in the very active 2005 hurricane season.

• Hurricane Rita: Sept. 2005, often referred to as the "forgotten storm," this category 3 hurricane hit shortly after Katrina in a much less populated area along the Texas-Louisiana border.

• Hurricane Katrina: Aug. 2005, this Category 3 storm rocked Louisiana and the nation. Katrina caused $108 billion dollars in damage, making it the costliest storm in U.S. history.

• Hurricane Dennis: July 2005, Hurricane Dennis hit Florida as a Category 3 storm, in an area that was still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Ivan, which hit the year prior.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/08/24/all-hurricanes-hit-u-s-since-2005/598113001/

[guido911]

^^^This was the point of that tweet. Not that other storms had happened. But I'll admit Sandy was a bad one. My Keurig coffee orders were way delayed.

[TheArtist]

My favorite tweet on weather, er, climate change:

Actually I have heard that with global climate change hurricanes may be less likely in some aspects.  Wind shear patterns, as one for instance, may change and break them up or not allow them to form as easily going forward. BUT, with the increased energy and moisture brought about by the warmth, IF and when the conditions are right for them to form, they can be much stronger and more frequent during that window.

In other words, the extremes will become more extreme.  Less likely than average during longer windows of time, more likely and stronger than average during others.

Hope thats not too complicated.

[cannon_fodder]

The results of climate change don't appear to be well understood, that is what they are currently trying to model effectively.  For the same reasons we can't predict the weather 10 days in the future, it is difficult to understand the specific impact of climate on the weather system years in advance.  While they know the overall temperature is rising, it isn't uniform, they don't know how a decrease in salinity will effect currents, they don't know if the currents will shift and/or stop - thereby causing dramatic weather shifts (e.g., London is 500+ miles north of Minneapolis, yet has milder winters than Tulsa), they don't know if the jet stream will shift, they don't know...

One of the problems of consistently revisiting the "if" is that it hinders the ability to research the effects. 

I'm crossing my fingers that Tulsa ends up with a Mediterranean climate.  Now, no model predicts that and it isn't going to happen, but come on baby!

[swake]

The results of climate change don't appear to be well understood, that is what they are currently trying to model effectively.  For the same reasons we can't predict the weather 10 days in the future, it is difficult to understand the specific impact of climate on the weather system years in advance.  While they know the overall temperature is rising, it isn't uniform, they don't know how a decrease in salinity will effect currents, they don't know if the currents will shift and/or stop - thereby causing dramatic weather shifts (e.g., London is 500+ miles north of Minneapolis, yet has milder winters than Tulsa), they don't know if the jet stream will shift, they don't know...

One of the problems of consistently revisiting the "if" is that it hinders the ability to research the effects. 

I'm crossing my fingers that Tulsa ends up with a Mediterranean climate.  Now, no model predicts that and it isn't going to happen, but come on baby!

We have had five years in a row of milder than normal summers and almost no winter. Since 2011 when we had 115 degree days and two blizzards which are also not normal.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I'm crossing my fingers that Tulsa ends up with a Mediterranean climate.  Now, no model predicts that and it isn't going to happen, but come on baby!

Don't we need a sea for that??   I guess if the New Madrid fault gave way, we could have our sea.

Might put Whitewater on the beach.

[dbacksfan 2.0]

^^^This was the point of that tweet. Not that other storms had happened. But I'll admit Sandy was a bad one. My Keurig coffee orders were way delayed.

Sorry, your sample size is too small to draw any conclusions from regardless of the side you are on. Just because there were no hurricanes in '06, '09, '10, '13 and '15 does not define any kind of average.

[bluelake]

We have had five years in a row of milder than normal summers and almost no winter. Since 2011 when we had 115 degree days and two blizzards which are also not normal.

In terms of averages for the past 113 years the past 5 summers rank in terms of coolest:

2017 - 35
2016 - 103
2015 - 65
2014 - 32
2013 - 42

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tulsumstemp

Tulsa only hit 115 in 1936, and hit 114 three separate times, all of which were in 1936.  The hottest it hit in 2011 was 113, with three record highs in July (104 on 7th, 107 on 10th, 107 on 27th) and 3 record highs, and one tie, in August (113 on 3rd, 112 on 5th, 109 on 6th which also occurred in a previous year, 108 on 24th).  In terms of 100-degree days:


1. 1936    65
2. 1934    59
3. 1980    58
4. 1925    47
5. 1954    46
6. 2011    44
7. 1918    40
8. 1913    39
9. 2012    38
10 1956    38

http://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tulcli07
http://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tulcli08
https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tul100stats

In terms of heat waves 2011 had one of 14 days in length (tied for 10th place) and a second one of 11 days (tied for 17th place).

In terms of average summer temperature 2011 is #2 behind summer of 1980, with #3 1936 and #4 1934, all of which are a total span of 0.7 degrees.

1.    1980    88.0
2.    2011    87.7
3.    1936    87.4
4.    1934    87.3    

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tul100stats#Consecutive_Days

From what I see the summer of 2011 was unusual but not abnormal in the recent history of Tulsa.

I tried to find more information regarding blizzards and couldn't seem to find much historical information for this area.  The Tulsa NWS office issued blizzard warnings in January 2011, December 2009 and November 2006.  IMHO I do think we had things like that earlier because when I was living in the country north of Tulsa in the mid 1980s we had some bad snow storms and the worst lightning during a snowstorm that I've seen (much worse than 2011).

I did find Oklahoma had the state's worst blizzard in 1971, which was also bad for Wichita.

http://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2009/12/blizzard-of-71.html
http://www.koco.com/article/anniversary-of-1971-oklahoma-blizzard/4308434

ETA:

I forgot the part about the past 5 winters.  As they rank for the past 112 years for warm winters:

2016-17: 6
2015-16: 3
2014-15: 68
2013-14: 101
2012-13: 27

Again, doesn't seem anything unheard of as the list shows several years close by in the early 1900s (1. 1931-32, 4. 1930-31, 9. 1933-34, 16 1934-35, 18. 1937-38) and (5. 1920-21, 7. 1922-23, 26. 1918-19), as well as the 1950s (13. 1953-54, 15. 1951-52, 25. 1952-53, 35. 1954-55)

https://www.weather.gov/tsa/climo_tulwinstemp