Market Today

[Conan71]

...throughout most of that period, unemployment was 15% and above (peaking at just below 25%). 

I happen to agree that it should have been allowed to run it's course...in 2001 instead of propping it up and we'd be long past the pain.  Instead, permissive lending kept the machine running.

Just curious if anyone knows, how was U/E measured in those days?  Was it total people out of work or only those still looking like the metrics we use now?

[Conan71]

Another surprise helps the market.

Tomorrow will be something else...Hell, this afternoon.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38862352/ns/business-stocks_and_economy

A brief stay of execution 

[Conan71]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-hindenburg-omen-is-scary-but-so-are-the-fundamentals-535367.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,XLF,FXE,XHB,TLT,GLD

"Hindenburg Omen"

After tumbling below 10,000 yet again Wednesday morning, the Dow rebounded to close above that psychologically important level and was slightly higher early Thursday. Still, fear in the market is being expressed by the continued rally in Treasuries and widespread chatter about an ominous sounding technical indicator: The Hindenburg Omen.


The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987, meaning it's far from infallible but isn't inconsequential either. The indicator's creator, mathematician Jim Miekka, compares the Hindenburg Omen to a funnel cloud that precedes a tornado in a recent interview with The WSJ. "It doesn't mean [the market's] going to crash, but it's a high probability," he said.

Complex and esoteric even in the world of technical indicators, the Hindenburg Omen is triggered when the following occurs, Zero Hedge reports:

-- The daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.2% of total NYSE issues traded that day.
-- The NYSE's 10-week moving average is rising.
-- The McClellan Oscillator (a technical measure of "overbought" vs. "oversold" conditions) is negative on that same day.
-- New 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52-week lows. This condition is absolutely mandatory.
These criteria have been hit twice since Aug. 12, prompting Miekka to get out of the market entirely, The WSJ reports. Judging by the recent market action, many others are following suit -- or at least moving in the same direction.

Worry List Lengthens

As Henry and I discuss in the accompanying clip, there are a lot of reasons to be worried right now that having nothing to with The Hindenburg Omen, the "Death Cross", Mercury being in retrograde or myriad other indicators cited by market pundits of various stripes.

More fundamental reasons to be concerned include:

It's the Economy, Stupid: This week's weak durable goods and home sales reports are just the latest in a string of desultory data. In sum, the macroeconomic data strongly suggest the job market isn't going to improve anytime soon. And if the job market doesn't improve, there's really not much hope for a turnaround in housing, consumer sales or anything else really. Oh, and the stock market is still expensive on a cyclically adjusted P/E basis, making it more vulnerable to an economic slowdown.

Unusual Uncertainty: On July 21, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that the Fed's forecast called for real GDP growth of 3%-3.5% for 2010 and 3.5%-4.5% in 2011 and 2012. Less than a month later, the Fed announced plans to buy Treasuries again (a.k.a. "QE2") and, as The WSJ reported this week, there's a tremendous amount of dissention within the Fed about the 'right' policy prescription.

Financial Follies: Whether it's renewed concerns about Europe's sovereign debt crisis, more U.S. bank closures or reports of commercial developers walking away from properties, it's clear the problems in the financial system were not resolved by various and sundry bailouts and government stimulus ... not by a long shot.

Good Politics vs. Good Economics: S&P's downgrade of Ireland's debt and Greece's revenue shortfall show the short-term perils of the austerity measures that have swept Europe. But promising to cut government spending and slash deficits appears to be a winning political strategy in America right now. Certainly, it's a key message of Republican and Tea Party candidates, who appear to have the momentum heading into the November mid-term elections. But if Europe's 'PIIGS' are any example, gridlock might not be so "good" for the economy this time around, much less the financial markets.

Of course, the "good" news here is that there's so much to worry about and the markets typically are darkest just before dawn.

[RecycleMichael]

I think one should take a longer look at the marketplace. If your retirement fund is invested in stocks, a good length of inspection would be ten years ago.

Remember ten years ago, Bill Clinton was still President and the tech bubble was bursting. The Dow Jones industrial average was hovering just over 10,000 points.

Ten years later, the Dow Jones is still hovering around 10,000 points. There have been spectacular highs and lows. Lows of 7,500 a year and a half into the Bush Presidency and a low of 6,600 a half a year into the Obama years were stressed, but highs of 14,000 about a year before the last election were good times.

Historically, the Dow traditionally has a good year in the twelve months leading up to a Presidential election and a poor year in the immediate earlier twelve month period.

All that being said, We haven't really made any money on stock investments in the last ten years but haven't lost any as well. 2011 might be a tough year, but 2012 will be a year to make it all back and maybe more.

[Townsend]

and it's down today. 

Index   Last Change
I:DJI    10016.69 -134.26   -1.32%
INX      1049.37 -15.22   -1.43%
SPX.X  1049.44 -15.15   -1.42%

NEW YORK — Stocks ended lower Monday after further signs of slowing growth added to caution ahead of the government's crucial jobs report later in the week.

A report Monday showed personal income rose less than expected in July, adding to the string of data that points toward a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38914908/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy

[RecycleMichael]

and the market is up today...254 points...

Must have been the Obama speech last night.

[RecycleMichael]

Market up again?

Since Gaspar and I made our bet the market has risen 400 points.

I can't drink 12 bottles of Marshall's by myself...I will have to invite some of you guys to help...

[RecycleMichael]

Market up again...the fifth time in six tradings days in September so far.

Come on 11,000. Who's drinking with me?

[Rico]

^^
Hold that thought until October is here and gone.

[swake]

Dow is up 127 points today and is currently at 10,734. It's now getting really close to that 11,000 mark.

[Townsend]

I:DJI  10765.12  +157.27 +1.48%
I:COMP  2356.97  +41.36 +1.79%
SPX.X  1143.9  +18.31 +1.63%

[RecycleMichael]

500 points in three weeks is pretty good. The market has been up 11 of 13 trading days of September.

I expect a drop early next week. The pundits will all have some reason why, but I think it will be for people to pay their bookies after this weekend's football upsets.

[guido911]

500 points in three weeks is pretty good. The market has been up 11 of 13 trading days of September.

Pretty good, that's freakin awesome. Especially after I saw my August portfolio statement. I am at a complete loss as to the rollercoaster ride of recent.

[swake]

Pretty good, that's freakin awesome. Especially after I saw my August portfolio statement. I am at a complete loss as to the rollercoaster ride of recent.

I told you that you could make some damn good money betting against Gaspar.

To be fair to him, the media is often if not usually wrong about the markets. By the time they report a trend, it's over. The people that seem to always get burned investing are the ones that get their investment advice from the TV.

[guido911]

I told you that you could make some damn good money betting against Gaspar.

To be fair to him, the media is often if not usually wrong about the markets. By the time they report a trend, it's over. The people that seem to always get burned investing are the ones that get their investment advice from the TV.

Note to self, do the opposite of Gaspar's investment advice.