Batten em down!

[we vs us]

After looking at the weather models for the next week, I thought I'd see if I can find some tire chains. Even Amazon says no go for my size, except for the cheapest, junkiest chain they sell that's only good up to 30mph.

Where do you go to check said models?  I got really sick of hearing the NWS forecast again and again for the blizzard and really wanted a good weather blog to walk me through all the different the scenarios.  Do you have a site you visit or something?

[nathanm]

Where do you go to check said models?  I got really sick of hearing the NWS forecast again and again for the blizzard and really wanted a good weather blog to walk me through all the different the scenarios.  Do you have a site you visit or something?

There are a whole bunch. The best one, if you just want to see the GFS and NAM is twisterdata.com. Much better than the usual teensy graphics. Sadly, they only have the one long range, one mid-range model, and one short-range (RUC) model.  NOAA's most recent update to the RUC (HRRR) is available at rapidrefresh.noaa.gov. It only goes out to 18 hours, though.

weather.cod.edu also has some models. Updates are a bit erratic sometimes, though.

[Hoss]

Where do you go to check said models?  I got really sick of hearing the NWS forecast again and again for the blizzard and really wanted a good weather blog to walk me through all the different the scenarios.  Do you have a site you visit or something?

The NWS just uses an amalgamation of three or four of those models and uses their expertise to munge it all together.  They were pretty close.  The GFS and NAM were predicting between 16 and 20 inches of snow for Tulsa, but those two models when it comes to precip, especially snow, tend to over-predict as they did in this case.  I usually knock off about 20 to 33 percent of what they say.  I think NWS uses that same rule of thumb.

[Townsend]

Heavy Snow West of town again

[patric]

Heavy Snow West of town again

Heavy snow midtown. Another 1-4" possible.

--- correction: 4-6" with 3-4" likely.

[Townsend]

Heavy snow midtown. Another 1-4" possible.

--- correction: 4-6" with 3-4" likely.

F me.  Over

[nathanm]

It was coming down pretty hard for a while, but it's lightened up some here. Drivers were being even stupider than usual. 15th Street is pretty much blocked somewhere just east of the BA from cars that can't make it up the hill and both Lewis and 11th are slower than molasses.

Note the forecast 7 day snowfall: 11 inches!

[zstyles]

I love this weather! Very Cool (no pun intended)

[TurismoDreamin]

Glad I got some more plaster mesh. Probably the most essential tool I have to keep me from getting stuck in my Accord 

[we vs us]

Note the forecast 7 day snowfall: 11 inches!

You didn't just make that up, did you?

[nathanm]

(linked from my server so that future changes don't change the record)

[Hoss]

(linked from my server so that future changes don't change the record)

This includes all the way to next Friday, so people don't freak out.  Today's map for the 24 hour period shows about 4.5 in.

[DTowner]

This includes all the way to next Friday, so people don't freak out.  Today's map for the 24 hour period shows about 4.5 in.

I'm not sure saying it's through next Friday really makes it that much better!

I was out at lunch and the new snow is making travel very difficult for any non 4-wheel drive vehicle.

[Hoss]

I'm not sure saying it's through next Friday really makes it that much better!

I was out at lunch and the new snow is making travel very difficult for any non 4-wheel drive vehicle.

Because 7 day forecasts for winter precip are rarely accurate.  Even 36 hours out they can be wildly inaccurate.

[nathanm]

Because 7 day forecasts for winter precip are rarely accurate.  Even 36 hours out they can be wildly inaccurate.

There is considerable uncertainty as to the precipitation type saturday into sunday, yes. Not as much with next week. If it precipitates, it will probably be snow.

Generally speaking, the problem with winter weather forecasts (especially around here) is the temperature profile of the atmosphere. When it's clearly going to be cold, they're much less likely to get it dramatically wrong. When it's right at freezing, it can be impossible to tell exactly what's going to happen until it starts happening.