Batten em down!

[custosnox]

Then you should know that my kids' lives were not endangered by going to school. Neither would the lives of kids going to Jenks and Bixby. I am middle aged (not an old fuddy whatever by any means). But I guess I am from the old school that snow should not result in a free week's vacation for the kids and public employees (I see on social networks numerous teachers celebrating snow days). I cannot recall ever having more than three snow days in a row off of school when I was a kid. How about you Red? joeie?

As for driving by HH, I advise you not to do so between 2:30-3:30. It will be a clusterf**k of mammoth proportions.

CUST:  I have no experience with school bus drivers, or their driving issues, as I don't have any use for buses. But if they are that bad, why do parent's allow their kids to get on board in good weather? Are these parents not endangering their safety by exposing them to a known risk?

In general the bus drivers aren't a danger, though they tend to be a bit on the stupid side sometimes.  However, this is Oklahoma, and any and all common sense behind the wheel goes out the window when a single flake hits the ground, and this holds true for bus drivers. Even with Ice/snow routes it wouldn't help much since several of the schools are in the middle of neighborhoods, which means that that the roads wouldn't be real clear.  

I do have to ask, given your comment about not remembering having more than three snow days off for snow, how many times did you have this level of snow in a city completely unprepared for it?  I personally don't remember having more than a two or three days off either, but I could see it in this situation.  

Finally got the mail today, and all but one of my packages came in, which is odd because that one said that it was out for delivery at 9am. 

[guido911]

I got my mail today as well. It was about 4 inches thick.

This whole mess is just strange to me-particularly since Tulsa is only about 6-6.5 hrs southwest from where I grew up. I have not seen anything like it.

[custosnox]

I got my mail today as well. It was about 4 inches thick.

This whole mess is just strange to me-particularly since Tulsa is only about 6-6.5 hrs southwest from where I grew up. I have not seen anything like it.

heh, how much of yours was advertisments?  I was catching all kinds of stuff as it poured out when I opened it up, the majority was ads.

[swake]

I got five total pieces of mail. That's a small amount for a single day. I'm just sure my mail in the trash somewhere.

And UPS put me off again. A week late now on my wife's new laptop.

Crap.

[guido911]

heh, how much of yours was advertisments?  I was catching all kinds of stuff as it poured out when I opened it up, the majority was ads.

I will tell you what. About three years ago I donated to numerous, and I mean numerous, different charities that hooked me on guilt. Today, in all seriousness, I get hit up for money by at least 3 hit ups daily from those and various organizations similar to those I donated to. So today, I got hit up by close to 12 different charities. Only about 4-5 items dealt with me, family, or my home.

[guido911]

And UPS put me off again. A week late now on my wife's new laptop.

Crap.

I guess you wouldn't want to know that UPS delivered my new red laser sight today. teehee. Ducking and donning Kevlar now.

[SXSW]

I never said that we would.  The models suggest that's possible, so plan for it.  The NAM has a swath of 14" just north of the metro, but the GFS is showing 6-8".  NWS is stating 5-10"; most local TV forecasters just parrot the NWS forecast and tweak it a little so they don't appear like they're not doing their own number crunching.  Remember a week before last week's storm?  They were stating (including the NWS) that we would get 2-4 inches.  Well, we all know what happened there.  Forecasting wintry precip is harder than forecasting the path of a tornado 30 minutes in advance.

NWS does a pretty decent job predicting severe weather but not snowfall totals.  Models like the NAM are usually more accurate.  There will likely be a band of 16"+ totals somewhere in NE Oklahoma, possibly over Tulsa.  We won't really know until the latest data comes in tomorrow, and even then maybe not.  Remember our "dusting to an inch" of snow we were supposed to get last Friday that turned into 4-5"?  NWS and the local TV channels missed that one completely while the models predicted more, just like last Tuesday when 20" was forecast on the NAM for northern Tulsa County...

[SXSW]

If you want the most accuracy do not even watch the local weathermen.  Look at the forecast models and the NWS website.  The Norman office website puts out really nice graphical forecasts.

[ZYX]

Could you give either a link or a web address so I can access these models?

-Thanks

[Hoss]

Could you give either a link or a web address so I can access these models?

-Thanks

Thought I did earlier in the thread...

Here's the 84 hour snowfall total from the NAM:  http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX
Here's the 120 hour snowfall total from the GFS: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX

The NAM current model is showing 14-16 inches in the metro; the GFS is more conservative and showing 6-8.  For historical purposes, the NAM was spot-on last week.

My concern now is from the most recent AFD (about an hour ago) from the Tulsa NWS weather site:

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE
DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.

00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY
WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT
BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE
DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.


What the above equates to is specifically speaking about convective bands of snow.  That equates to some of what we had last week:  Thundersnow/sleet.

[ZYX]

Thought I did earlier in the thread...

I know you did, but was having trouble retrieving updated models. (if they had been)

Thanks for the new links

[ZYX]

I am beginning to think we will get much more snow than "originally" forecasted. Well, maybe we can be out of school by the Fourth of July...

[custosnox]

Thought I did earlier in the thread...

Here's the 84 hour snowfall total from the NAM:  http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX
Here's the 120 hour snowfall total from the GFS: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=INX

The NAM current model is showing 14-16 inches in the metro; the GFS is more conservative and showing 6-8.  For historical purposes, the NAM was spot-on last week.

My concern now is from the most recent AFD (about an hour ago) from the Tulsa NWS weather site:

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE
DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.

00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS
SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY
WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT.
THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT
BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE
DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.


What the above equates to is specifically speaking about convective bands of snow.  That equates to some of what we had last week:  Thundersnow/sleet.

you can stop anytime now

[ZYX]

you can stop anytime now

If only.

[Hoss]

you can stop anytime now

Don't shoot the messenger.  

Oh, wait, you are probably referring to my weather geekiness.  As a pilot, and Conan knows this, I have to have a rudimentary knowledge of weather.  As fate would have it, I wanted to be in meteorology, but my Mother getting hurt my senior year of highschool nixed that.

Wouldn't change a thing since though.

So later in life I became a trained spotter, and read lots and asked lots of questions.