Economic Reality

[Gaspar]

Actually this is not the first time President Obama has mentioned automation as a reason behind a shrinking job market.  I agree with him.

But, if your ambition in life is to become a bank teller and you are out of work, it is not the fault of the ATM, it is the fault of your ambition.

If you are a union laborer as your father was and his father and you are replaced by a robot or a person in China, it is not the robot's fault, nor is it Mr. Chin's fault.  It is your fault.

I don't believe that President Obama is a Luddite.  I don't believe he is actually blaming technology, I simply think that he is bringing to light the fact that it is stupid to think that a portion of the labor pool won't eventually be replaced by automation.   The ongoing expense for automation is far less than that of an employee.  They don't require benefits, nor is that expense at the will of changing government regulation, taxation, and everything else we can see coming down the pike.

The company I work for sells such automation technology, and the last couple of years has been very successful because companies are fearful of hiring more staff, and if there is a one time investment you can make that will save you from an ongoing expense that is just good business.  Cheap labor is no longer cheap, and who knows what it will cost in the next few years?

Go to Carl's Jr. in Bixby and you will notice that they have now replaced the counter staff with touch screen order entry kiosks.  Soon you won't even be able to get a job flipping burgers!

[Cats Cats Cats]

Actually this is not the first time President Obama has mentioned automation as a reason behind a shrinking job market.  I agree with him.

But, if your ambition in life is to become a bank teller and you are out of work, it is not the fault of the ATM, it is the fault of your ambition.

If you are a union laborer as your father was and his father and you are replaced by a robot or a person in China, it is not the robot's fault, nor is it Mr. Chin's fault.  It is your fault.

I don't believe that President Obama is a Luddite.  I don't believe he is actually blaming technology, I simply think that he is bringing to light the fact that it is stupid to think that a portion of the labor pool won't eventually be replaced by automation.   The ongoing expense for automation is far less than that of an employee.  They don't require benefits, nor is that expense at the will of changing government regulation, taxation, and everything else we can see coming down the pike.

The company I work for sells such automation technology, and the last couple of years has been very successful because companies are fearful of hiring more staff, and if there is a one time investment you can make that will save you from an ongoing expense that is just good business.  Cheap labor is no longer cheap, and who knows what it will cost in the next few years?

Go to Carl's Jr. in Bixby and you will notice that they have now replaced the counter staff with touch screen order entry kiosks.  Soon you won't even be able to get a job flipping burgers!

Really... People don't hire them because they are "fearful"?  Not because your business provides reliable equipment which can replace workers and save them money?

[Gaspar]

Really... People don't hire them because they are "fearful".  Not because your business provides reliable equipment which can replace workers and save them money?

"Fearful" of what?

[Cats Cats Cats]

"Fearful" of what?

Fearful of hiring people as you mentioned.  But then you went on to say that it is "just good business".  So either 1) they are fearful of hiring anybody or 2) they would be stupid not to

[Conan71]

Someone has to flip the burgers, just not take the order.

I've been commenting as far back as a year ago that 9% may just be the new normal for unemployment.  That's been primarily based on anecdotal observations of my clients and vendors who have all weathered the economic storm.  How many of the 4 to 4.5% jobs lost in the last three to four years were being funded with borrowed money in the first place.  Many businesses have closed and those who are going great guns have learned to do more with fewer resources and much lower inventory levels.

[Conan71]

2000 about $7,000 billion  
2007 about $13,000 billion

6 trillion in debt is a large boost to the economy.

That's certainly a factor but that's consumer borrowing, not government spending.  I've still not seen the metric which proves government spending provided lasting solutions to a recession.

Take a look at 1992 to 2007 and it's clear what an orgy we had going on.  Doubled from '92 to '2000 then again through the first six years of the Bush admin.  Had to have been really good for the construction industry as well as all the consumer goods and cars being financed on lines of credit secured by 2nd mortgages.

Thanks for the graphic, Sheen.

[Cats Cats Cats]

That's certainly a factor but that's consumer borrowing, not government spending.  I've still not seen the metric which proves government spending provided lasting solutions to a recession.

Take a look at 1992 to 2007 and it's clear what an orgy we had going on.  Doubled from '92 to '2000 then again through the first six years of the Bush admin.  Had to have been really good for the construction industry as well as all the consumer goods and cars being financed on lines of credit secured by 2nd mortgages.

Thanks for the graphic, Sheen.

Skipped over the government spending.  However, one thing i missed was the fact that most of that mortgage debt was backed by the government.  So yeah, government "spending" on person debt fueled the economy.  The Bush government spending bonanza was just to give your buddies a scratch on the back for getting you in office.  And no, the spending increases were NOT due to the wars in Afghanistan or Iraq.  It was way more than that (this wasn't directed to Conan).

[TheArtist]

   I think the US should try to be the "high tech" leader in the world and work to get the highest paying jobs.  The total population of the US is only about 5% of the entire worlds population.  Theoretically a large chunk of our population could have a good number of the worlds highest paying jobs.  We could all be the rich.

How do we capture the majority of those jobs?  It seems like a lot of northern European countries have headed down that course.  In the global scheme of things, we are a small country that could do that too.


  The other type of jobs that will do well in the future will be things done locally and of high quality, perhaps that can be hand made, and that are done to be custom.  Each locality in the world will branch out in two directions, one being the exact opposite of high tech, a reversal of sorts going back to the old days, like the village craftsman, where quality craftsmanship from food and wine, to cabinetry, even super high quality machine parts for cars or watches, quality toys, unique local quisine, local art, (Germany is good at doing this) etc. will do quite well.  I can't compete with a mass produced print from China that people all over the world will buy, but I can do a unique, high quality, custom made painting for you or a mural in your home.

  Another type of industry will be the "experience" industry.  So much is so cheap these days. Most Americans have piles of stuff, clothing, etc. out their wazoos.  Or we may end up in a world where the opposite might be true where people can't afford or don't want a lot of things.  Regardless, seems to me that more things aren't going to be as important as having more experiences.  We will divide up a good many of our purchases into technology and "brick and mortar" experiences.  Could be a great dining experience, movie experience, vacation,,, or I hope some day a great Museum experience, and not what you typically mean by say a dining "experience", you will make it if you can offer something that gives you a unique, interesting, bonafied, great e-x-p-e-r-i-e-n-c-e.  You won't just be selling or competing with the food, you will also more and more be selling and competing with the experiences.  Hope you get my drift.  In essence, You will have people buying technology and spending a lot of time in that world (online like us here lol, gaming, movies/entertainment, work, news and information), then also people wanting good experiences in the "brick and mortar" world.  (and I would say that runs into whether your city itself will offer a good experience, with pleasing pedestrian friendly streets for instance).

[Conan71]

Well so much for locking spammers out of being able to start topics as a solution.

Is there any way to identify foreign IP's and block them?

[we vs us]

Well so much for locking spammers out of being able to start topics as a solution.

Is there any way to identify foreign IP's and block them?

How bout just foreigners? 


/I keed, I keed.

[Conan71]

How bout just foreigners? 


/I keed, I keed.

No, I think you would have to include Journey and Starship too.

[dbacks fan]

No, I think you would have to include Journey and Starship too.

Don't forget April Wine, those darn Canadiens.........

[Hoss]

Don't forget April Wine, those darn Canadiens.........

Those Canadians can be fun...they know to topple cars and burn stuff....

[Townsend]

Those Canadians can be fun...they know to topple cars and burn stuff....

and use their time in a riot wisely...

[Hoss]

and use their time in a riot wisely...

Saw that last night and was floored.  Pretty funny.