What is Going On in Greece?

[guido911]

Ladies and gentlemen, the expert on this subject.  Please hold your applause.

Okay Kirk, where's Spock?

[Townsend]

Okay Kirk, where's Spock?

Originality Trixie.  You need some.

Modified to add:

You hear that dude?  I'm Kirk.

Only issue is now we know what he imagines while at the keyboard and bitching at us.

[nathanm]

Hey, expert? You think that state and local governments bleeding jobs might have something to do with the lackluster recovery?



Also, people much smarter than me (and much more talented at making pretty graphs) have a strong belief, along with some evidence to back it up, that the deficits aren't the issue. It's a demand side problem, not a supply side problem. Greenspan, being an apostle of Reagan doesn't appear to grasp that there are two sides to every transaction. You can't sell stuff to people who aren't willing to buy it, and you can't buy stuff from people who aren't willing to sell it. Bernanke is also caught in this trap, annoyingly enough.

If the deficit or even fears of future inflation were the issue, interest rates would be higher.



(you can click on the image for the article that goes with it)

[guido911]

Nate, I don't like Greenspan either, but for different reasons. My point is that whatever we are doing right now, or even on Bush's watch for that matter, is not making any noticeable difference. We have unemployment over 9%, and I hope it comes down, massive deficits/debts, and no real plan being offered by the dems. Ryan has his idea, but as soon as it was released the left went into full orgasm. We get grandmother in a wheelchair going over the cliff--oh that's great was to start a discussion. Demagogue it.

The only sector really doing well, save about 3 weeks in the past month, is business and the investment markets. No one is really interested in taking all the money just sitting out there and using it to hire people. Personally, I have no interest in taking any risk, which I sense is the same problem with many many others with far more liquidity. Honestly, do you blame them? And if so, give them a reason why they should invest.

[nathanm]

They should invest because it would make them money. And regarding Ryan's budget, see the chart I posted on another thread. It's not all that.

Also, I saw an interesting statistic yesterday. The unemployment problem is largely not a problem for white people. Unemployment among whites is up about 3.5 percentage points from its minimum, or about 7% right now, or about 1 point over what is normally considered a pretty good unemployment rate. Among blacks? Up almost 8 points, for a total of about 16%.

I think crappy consumer demand is probably a bigger part of this stagnant economy than anything else. I'm surprised demand hasn't picked up as the overall percentage of people's income devoted to debt service has decreased and sentiment regarding people's individual economic outlook has improved. What confuses me is that both the saving rate and outstanding consumer credit has ticked up somewhat over the past few months, but we're still not seeing much job growth. It's not all being spent on imported goods, so pancakes are people doing with the money?

[guido911]

They should invest because it would make them money. And regarding Ryan's budget, see the chart I posted on another thread. It's not all that.

Also, I saw an interesting statistic yesterday. The unemployment problem is largely not a problem for white people. Unemployment among whites is up about 3.5 percentage points from its minimum, or about 7% right now, or about 1 point over what is normally considered a pretty good unemployment rate. Among blacks? Up almost 8 points, for a total of about 16%.

I think crappy consumer demand is probably a bigger part of this stagnant economy than anything else. I'm surprised demand hasn't picked up as the overall percentage of people's income devoted to debt service has decreased and sentiment regarding people's individual economic outlook has improved. What confuses me is that both the saving rate and outstanding consumer credit has ticked up somewhat over the past few months, but we're still not seeing much job growth. It's not all being spent on imported goods, so pancakes are people doing with the money?

Then why don't they? After all, most of those people are self-made and got that way by thinking clearly (presumably) and taking risks. Yet you know more about how they can make more money than they do? Come on. Unless you are in the camp that the rich are deliberately not spending in order to tank Obama, chances are these people know more than the both of us.

Other than do away with the Bush tax cuts, what else are the dems doing to fix our mess? I want to know because as I see it they are just being Bleacher Creatures.

[nathanm]

The wealthy folks I work for are spending money, but it's more of buying up cheap properties, cash poor businesses with otherwise good prospects, and opening new offices with existing employees than the sort of spending that creates new jobs. What's to be done to get them to redirect their investment into new businesses and that sort of thing? I can't say.

I do know that fiscal expansion would help, and I know that tax cuts aren't going to do a damn thing, but beyond that, who the hell knows? I also know that if I had $20 million (or a willing bank/angel investor/whoever to provide most of it) I'd be creating some new jobs, but I don't, so I'll keep dreaming.

[guido911]

The wealthy folks I work for are spending money, but it's more of buying up cheap properties, cash poor businesses with otherwise good prospects, and opening new offices with existing employees than the sort of spending that creates new jobs. What's to be done to get them to redirect their investment into new businesses and that sort of thing? I can't say.

I do know that fiscal expansion would help, and I know that tax cuts aren't going to do a damn thing, but beyond that, who the hell knows? I also know that if I had $20 million (or a willing bank/angel investor/whoever to provide most of it) I'd be creating some new jobs, but I don't, so I'll keep dreaming.

I know I should be buying up real estate like a crazy man, but I am playing it same for now. Munis is where I am most active. As for hiring, believe it or not the law "business is a boomin'" (h/t Lt. Aldo Raine: http://www.hark.com/clips/tycspptxfm-business-is-a-boomin) and I will be looking to hire folks in the near future. Being on my own is much better, get to pick and choose my fights and less mechanical/repetitive that the firm life can occasionally be.

[nathanm]

I know I should be buying up real estate like a crazy man

As long as you can afford to take losses for the next couple of years. I'm not too comfortable with municipal bonds right now what with all the budget crises everywhere I look. Bank debt isn't a bad deal, though, at least for a little while longer. Not that equity funds have been looking bad lately, either. I'm left wondering how long the streak can last now that QE2 is done.