2012 Political Predictions

[Townsend]

According to Slate, Gingrich has two taints.

Newt Gingrich has as much of this insider taint as he does personal taint.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/01/florida_primary_battle_gingrich_and_romney_are_both_insiders_so_why_is_gingrich_able_to_portray_himself_as_an_outsider_.html?wpisrc=twitter_socialflow

[Townsend]

So now that it's most likely Mitt Romney as the GOP candidate, will he be moderate or will he move towards the crazy?

To get Oklahoma, he needs the crazy.  I don't think he cares if he gets Oklahoma though.

[AquaMan]

So now that it's most likely Mitt Romney as the GOP candidate, will he be moderate or will he move towards the crazy?

To get Oklahoma, he needs the crazy.  I don't think he cares if he gets Oklahoma though.

Momentum has vacillated with this primary. Romney only has 70 delegates out of, what, 550? Too early to crown him even though I believe he will be the one.

One thing Gingrich has nailed, Romney is a moderate guy who knows his future in a general election depends on being....not too far right. He's perfectly willing to play as many roles as necessary to get elected and has proven that in the past.

Grich on the other hand is a moderate guy who doesn't care about the leanings of the general population. He is running as "the" real conservative and is egotistical enough to believe he will move the population to the right like his new found idol, Reagan did.

I'm a daisy if he does.

[Conan71]

Momentum has vacillated with this primary. Romney only has 70 delegates out of, what, 550? Too early to crown him even though I believe he will be the one.

One thing Gingrich has nailed, Romney is a moderate guy who knows his future in a general election depends on being....not too far right. He's perfectly willing to play as many roles as necessary to get elected and has proven that in the past.

Grich on the other hand is a moderate guy who doesn't care about the leanings of the general population. He is running as "the" real conservative and is egotistical enough to believe he will move the population to the right like his new found idol, Reagan did.

I'm a daisy if he does.

It's still pretty early, but I don't believe there will be a brokered primary.  I think Romney will win the remaining states fairly easily with a few exceptions.  The larger states like California, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, Michigan, New York, etc. are his to lose.  Gingrich might get some of the smaller delegate states like Alaska.  I suspect by the time the Oklahoma primary rolls around, we will end up voting for whomever has the most momentum.

I believe the larger percent of the GOP is perfectly okay with a moderate candidate, I also predict the November election will come down to whomever is able to better convince the electorate they can get them back to work.  The President has a four year track record to go on which is not favorable at this point.  Granted, I think most educated Americans figured it might take a couple of years to reverse the tide of the recession.  Romney will have to point to his successes as a governor and business man at putting people to work.  I've still not examined u/e numbers while he was governor of Massachusetts.

The harsh reality is that whomever ends up in the White House is going to be faced with a jobs climate which is continuing to suffer from free trade agreements and a lingering hang-over from the recession.  Most companies have managed to get by with fewer employees and less inventory. I really don't see that changing any time soon.  Customers for industrial equipment have gotten used to longer lead times and much tighter credit terms.

[we vs us]

Romney's still the man. For awhile I thought the Rogues Gallery would stay intact through much more of the primary season but I think that even the Not-Romney choice is going to fall off sooner rather than later.  Why?  Money.  Romney has blown his nearest competitor out of the water in terms of fundraising.  And while Romney's base at this point is relatively narrow, Gingrich's is razor thin (consisting almost exclusively of a single casino magnate and his family).  That means Gingrich's well will run dry quickest, while Romney can go back again and again, as well as broadening the base. 

On a related note:  holy crap, SuperPACs are going to be the death of the Republic. 

[Conan71]

On a related note:  holy crap, SuperPACs are going to be the death of the Republic. 

Agreed.

Curious if Sheldon Adelson will help fund Romney or not and what his angle is with Gingrich.

[Townsend]

Per NBC tweet;

Donald Trump will make a major announcement tomorrow pertaining to the Presidential race

My belly button sucked even deeper into my torso in anticipation.  I heard a "thwip" sound from it.

[Conan71]

Per NBC tweet;


My belly button sucked even deeper into my torso in anticipation.  I heard a "thwip" sound from it.

He's a putz, and he's fixing to lose a ton of money while getting a major smackdown on his ego.  The only valid independent who could hurt the race would be Paul.

Trump is no Perot.

[we vs us]

He's a putz, and he's fixing to lose a ton of money while getting a major smackdown on his ego.  The only valid independent who could hurt the race would be Paul.

Trump is no Perot.

I don't think he'll do much more than superficial damage to the proceedings, but at some point the circus atmosphere has to hurt the GOP with independents.  And just as Romney was starting to project a little bit of inevitability after Florida!

[Conan71]

I don't think he'll do much more than superficial damage to the proceedings, but at some point the circus atmosphere has to hurt the GOP with independents.  And just as Romney was starting to project a little bit of inevitability after Florida!

Most people, other than those who live in reality TV land detest Trump.  He's an a**hole for detracting from the election even in any small way at this crucial juncture in American history.

[we vs us]

Most people, other than those who live in reality TV land detest Trump.  He's an a**hole for detracting from the election even in any small way at this crucial juncture in American history.

The sad part is that more people than either you or I would like live in reality TV land. 

[Hoss]

Most people, other than those who live in reality TV land detest Trump.  He's an a**hole for detracting from the election even in any small way at this crucial juncture in American history.

The phrase 'look at me, look at me' comes to mind when I think of him.

Or an AW, as I'd call him.

[Conan71]

Or an AW, as I'd call him.

Happy to oblige

[Hoss]

That's not exactly the AW I had in mind, but it will do.

Sent from my Atrix4G with fat fingers

[Townsend]

Donald Trump Set To Endorse Mitt Romney In Las Vegas

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/donald-trump-set-to-endorse-mitt-romney-in-las-vegas/


That's all the crazy we need. 

Oklahoma will vote Romney.  "He's almost Christian which is Christian enough for us."