Romney wins New Hampshire

[RecycleMichael]

As proven by my tremendous attempt at predicting elections in Iowa, I shall now predict the New Hampshire republican Presidential primary.

Romney wins (he has been campaigning there for 5 years). This time Romney gets over 40% and Ron Paul gets just under 20% for second place. I have Gingrich, Santorum and Huntsman all getting 12% which means that none of them will drop out. The boost to Huntsman (after getting 744 votes in Iowa) will be the story of next week heading into South Carolina.

[Townsend]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/look-ahead-an-early-look-at-new-hampshires-primary-ballot/

Look Ahead: An Early Look At New Hampshire's Primary Ballot

With Iowa behind them, candidates and political enthusiasts alike are turning their eyes eastward to New Hampshire, where voters are gearing up for their big event- next week's Jan. 10 primary. The Granite State hosts the first voting contest that will award delegates to the GOP presidential candidates, as well as the first in the nation voting contest that will use a ballot.

That ballot is not short on names. The New Hampshire Secretary of State released sample ballots for next week's primary for both the Republican and Democratic parties, and they  total 30 Republicans – a record high for the state's Republican ballot — and 14 Democrats, according to Secretary of State Bill Gardner.

The Republican ballot includes seven leading GOP contenders as well as seven others challenging for attention. Some of the additional names may look familiar. For example, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson, who is now seeking the libertarian party's nomination, former Louisiana governor Buddy Roemer, and Fred Karger, a political consultant and gay rights activist, are some of the individuals listed.

Herman Cain, the one time front-runner for the GOP nomination who dropped his bid in early December amid allegations of sexual harassment, also appears on the ballot. He filed his candidacy with the New Hampshire Secretary of State before dropping out of the race.

Other names are more of a question mark to voters. Bear Betzler of Philadelphia, Pa., is one of the candidates appearing on the ballot. He describes himself on his campaign webpage as "a Management Consultant, providing bold results-oriented leadership to Global Corporations for high-profile projects and strategic change programs." This is Betzler's first campaign for public office, according to his website.

Another unfamiliar name on the ballot is L. John Davis Jr., of Grand Junction, Colo., who bills himself as "a conservative Republican choice" who "will take a practical, common-sense approach to solving our Nation's problems," according to his campaign website.

Despite the record high number, there is only one female candidate listed on the Republican ballot, Michele Bachmann.

The Democratic ballot is considerably shorter than the Republican ballot, but Democratic voters in New Hampshire wishing to take part in Tuesday's primary do have a list of 13 names to check off aside from Barack Obama. The listed individuals span the ideological spectrum. Some are to the left of Obama, such as Darcy G. Richardson of Jacksonville, Fla., who bills himself as a "progressive Democrat" on his webpage and is running because he's been "disappointed by President Obama's abandonment of many of the progressive values that he articulated so eloquently."

Others are to the president's right, like Robert B. Jordan of Garden Grove, Calif., who is running on an "oil platform" which proposes lifting all restrictions on drilling in U.S. oil reserves, including the ANWAR and Prudhoe Bay regions in Alaska.

Qualifying for ballot access in New Hampshire is a relatively straightforward process. Candidates wishing to file for the first in the nation primary are required to submit a declaration of candidacy to the secretary of state's office, along with a $1,000 filing fee. New Hampshire's filing deadline was Oct. 28, 2011.

[we vs us]

I don't do numbers but I can predict that:

Romney wins decisively. 
Paul comes in 2nd.
Huntsman does better than expected and might be 3rd. 
Santorum does worse than expected and comes in 4th. 
Gingrich does worse than expected and closes up shop (doesn't have the resources to get past two losses.)

The field is weak enough at this point (in support and in $) that a single loss could take out Huntsman, Gingrich or Santorum.

[Townsend]

The Ultimate NH Primary Cheat Sheet

http://stateimpact.npr.org/new-hampshire/2012/01/04/the-ultimate-nh-primary-cheat-sheet/

(can't be 100% ultimate I guess...)

***Between our initial research and the publication of this post, Rick Santorum finished a very, very close second in the Iowa Caucuses.  Now, any attempt to go to his site automatically draws up a donation form, without the option of venturing further into the site.  We have opted not to link to this form on the grounds that it would create the appearance that we endorse a particular candidate.  Once we can access Santorum's site freely, we will link his name to the details of his policy positions.

[Gaspar]

I think Romney will squeak out another victory.  He is devoting minimal staff to all of these primaries.  As he said on the radio this morning, he's only putting enough boots on the ground necessary to win.  He's not looking at developing a shutout in any of the primaries. He obviously wants to save as much capital as possible for the general election to fight President Obama, who some speculate plans to spend upwards of a billion dollars on re-election.

Iowa was cut close for Romney (to say the least), but I admire the fact that he is unwilling to spend his war chest just to show up other candidates that will eventually become horses on his wagon. He has a fight ahead of him with President Obama and the president has already shown a willingness to "campaign" on the tax payers dime, so whatever Romney has, he probably needs to double it.

[Conan71]

I like Bear Betzler.  We need a President named "Bear".

And I loved this gem:

Some are to the left of Obama, such as Darcy G. Richardson of Jacksonville, Fla., who bills himself as a "progressive Democrat" on his webpage and is running because he's been "disappointed by President Obama's abandonment of many of the progressive values that he articulated so eloquently."

President Obama shall be known from now on as the "Great Articulator".

[RecycleMichael]

Romney needs Ron Paul and Rick Santorum to stay in the race together to win.

My theory is as soon as this becomes a two person race, the ant-mitt forces can overcome the Mitt-heads. It is in Mitt's favor if Huntsman does well in New Hampshire and Gingrich gets no better than fourth.   

The establishment part of the party likes the Mitt, the evangelicals likey the Santorum, and the ones who hate government like Ron Paul. They are evenly split in many states, but if I were a betting man I would say the establishment will win. They almost always do.

But Gingrich is the wild card. He is pissed at the PAC attack ads that Romney threw at him in Iowa. All gloves are off. Gingrich can go nuts on Romney and really hurt him. Romney will have two wins in a row after Tuesday in New Hampshire . Then Gingrich is going to smack him hard and beat him in South Carolina.

As a democrat, I appreciate the theater. It is like what watching NASCAR would be if the lead car always broke down and the spectators heckled your sponsors.

[Townsend]

the evangelicals likey the Santorum

...

[Conan71]

Romney needs Ron Paul and Rick Santorum to stay in the race together to win.

My theory is as soon as this becomes a two person race, the ant-mitt forces can overcome the Mitt-heads. It is in Mitt's favor if Huntsman does well in New Hampshire and Gingrich gets no better than fourth.  

The establishment part of the party likes the Mitt, the evangelicals likey the Santorum, and the ones who hate government like Ron Paul. They are evenly split in many states, but if I were a betting man I would say the establishment will win. They almost always do.

But Gingrich is the wild card. He is pissed at the PAC attack ads that Romney threw at him in Iowa. All gloves are off. Gingrich can go nuts on Romney and really hurt him. Romney will have two wins in a row after Tuesday in New Hampshire . Then Gingrich is going to smack him hard and beat him in South Carolina.

As a democrat, I appreciate the theater. It is like what watching NASCAR would be if the lead car always broke down and the spectators heckled your sponsors.

You speak just like someone who uses a bookie er knows some odds-makers.

I really don't think Gingrich is going to do well at all.  This is from total recall, but in the weeks before Gropergate broke, Cain and Gingrich were rising in the polls, it was simply their turn.  As soon as Cain's numbers started to plummet, those supporters went to Gingrich as they all thought those two were ideologically similar.

I think a lot of young voters either were not aware of Gingrich's ethics issues when he was SOTH.  All they knew about was his marital issues.  Once more GOP representatives who had worked with Gingrich started to hesitate on endorsements, it shined a light on how difficult he was to work with and that's when he started circling the drain.

IMO, the vetting system has worked really good this time around.  Santorum has his peccadilloes, it's only a matter of time before he gets slaughtered in the media, he's been a relative unknown in the campaign until now.  I think the numbers started climbing for him only because the numbers were dropping for others who had already been through the gauntlet.  Romney went through the gauntlet four years ago, I think that's why support for him has been relatively stable.

[we vs us]

You speak just like someone who uses a bookie er knows some odds-makers.

I really don't think Gingrich is going to do well at all. 

Agreed.  Gingrich is really more of a zombie candidate than an actual candidate.  He's deader than we think he is.