South Carolina primary predictions

[RecycleMichael]

Mitt barely wins Iowa over Santorum with Ron Paul third and Newt Gingrich fourth. Huntsman got less than 1%. In New Hampshire, Romney wins with Paul second, Huntsman third and Newt and Santorum close for fourth and fifth.

Romney wins the first state with 25% and the second state with just under 40%.

What is the acceptable level of winning that the opponents will give up? If Romney wins South Carolina yet falls under 33%, does that mean he can't win a head to head race in the general?

My predictions for South Carolina...

Romney 33%
Gingrich 22%
Santorum 21%
Paul 14%
Huntsman 4%
Perry 4%
Lee Atwater 1%
Stephen Colbert 1%

[RecycleMichael]

After last night's debate, Romney is sinking fast. His answers on his taxes are killing him.

My new predictions.

Gingrich wins with 34%
Romney gets 30%
Ron Paul gets his usual 17%
Rick Santorum gets 15%
Stephen Colbert gets 2%
Gary Johnson 1%
Vanna White 1%

[AquaMan]

Answers? He has no answers.

Nothing wrong with being wealthy and running for office. They all are. He looks like he's embarrassed or hiding something though. Doesn't matter anyway. Its too late. Now its not just taxes, its offshore deposits, its his wavering views, its the stink of arrogant 1% upon him. I still think he'll get the nomination but Newt and Santorum have wounded him. Perhaps mortally.

Mitt 34%
Grich 32%
Rick 15%
Ron  14%
Colbear aka Cain  1%
all others (including lost, deceased or changed at later date)...4%

[Townsend]

I still think he'll get the nomination but Newt and Santorum have wounded him. Perhaps mortally.

He's a sea monster?

[AquaMan]

If he is then Grich is Cap'n Ahab.

[Conan71]

Answers? He has no answers.

He looks like he's embarrassed or hiding something though.

Sounds like candidate Obama and his secretive college transcripts.

Or his long-form birth certificate

I watched the Betty White 90th birthday roast on NBC the other night and they had a taped segment from the president.  He wise-cracked that we needed to see a copy of her long-form birth certificate.  Good to see he's got a sense of humor about things like that.

[AquaMan]

Yeah, but Obama already likely has his nomination.

[Gaspar]

I think Romney and Newt are going to be neck and neck.

[we vs us]

I think Romney and Newt are going to be neck and neck.

I think you're right.  Romney's taking a dive, and Gingrich knows just how to motivate the folks down south.  His answer about the "open marriage" thing last night was just perfect.  He knew exactly how to turn that into an attack on the "liberal media" and that the audience would eat it up.  Romney, for his part is just swimming around in goop of his own making.  I really think if he rethought the defense of his money he could turn it into a positive -- at least enough to win the GOP nod.  Whether it does him any good in the general is another story, but the tax thing is a liability that shouldn't be. 

[Conan71]

As little as I care for Newt, to his credit, he did have a lot to do with the budget surpluses during the Clinton era.

He's still an arrogant, petulant little child.

[Gaspar]

I think you're right.  Romney's taking a dive, and Gingrich knows just how to motivate the folks down south.  His answer about the "open marriage" thing last night was just perfect.  He knew exactly how to turn that into an attack on the "liberal media" and that the audience would eat it up.  Romney, for his part is just swimming around in goop of his own making.  I really think if he rethought the defense of his money he could turn it into a positive -- at least enough to win the GOP nod.  Whether it does him any good in the general is another story, but the tax thing is a liability that shouldn't be. 

When Newt does that he causes the entire liberal-media-complex to reel in chaos.  Today they are all attempting to justify Kings question and find another angle to attack.  It's like throwing dynamite into a smoldering fire.  Makes a hell of a noise, but it puts the fire out!

I think that's one of the reasons that people dream of seeing Newt debate President Obama.  President Obama can spend an hour weaving thousands of beautiful words without delivering any substance.  Newt can deliver a knock-out in one sentence. I just hope he and Romney can kiss and make up, because it looks like they may be working together for the next four to eight years.

[swake]

This is a tough one. I think Mitt has an absolute ceiling of about 30-35% of Republicans that will support him. Just like Ron Paul has about 25%. I don't see their numbers changing much. Gingrich is where the support seemingly should go, but he's such a personal black hole  with his second ex-wife blasting him this week who knows if people are going to vote for him or not. It's a tough call, if a voter isn't going to vote for the big business moderate in Mitt or the Libertarian in Paul who do they vote for? The empty suit or the jerk-off?

If the race stays split with Paul taking 20-25% or so, and Mitt getting his 30-35% and the last 40% being split between Santorum and Gingrich mostly evenly Mitt can't help but win. But if one of them were to drop out, I think the one left standing would easily beat Mitt. Who blinks first, and do they do it in time?

[Townsend]

When Newt does that he causes the entire liberal-media-complex to reel in chaos.  

Yes, they are reeling.  Unsure what to do next...

What are you watching?

[Hoss]

Yes, they are reeling.  Unsure what to do next...

What are you watching?

I think he gets a special remote...

[Townsend]

I think he gets a special remote...

Jesus, it must release the meds...