Republican voters in South Carolina presidential primary are all white

[we vs us]

Hispanics have very traditional family values which actually seem more in line with the Christian conservatives:  anti-abortion, and they generally frown on homosexuality and gay marriage.

I'd say the immigration issue is about the only thing which makes them favor the Democrats, that's why the GOP would be wise to adopt sensible immigration policy.

Yep, agreed again.  That's why if the GOP could ever get its head around a middle way immigration policy, the Dems would be screwed.  I have to say, though, time is getting short for that to happen.  The longer the GOP waits, the more entrenched voting patterns become.  The longer the GOP is "anti-immigration," the longer it will be perceived as anti-immigration.  There are now a couple of solid Dem Hispanic generations in the US . . . much longer and the GOP risks them becoming more like the African American bloc -- a core Dem constituency.  

[Conan71]

We should have moved to better secure the borders after the amnesty act of '86 and a more orderly guest worker program.  What's funny is the "Reagan Conservatives" don't seem to share his ideas on immigration.

I suspect the Bushes saw the benefit of cheap labor in the economy and essentially didn't want to do anything substantive on the issue.  This seems ironic to me, because Bush II saw first-hand the problems with disorderly immigration as governor of Texas.

[Townsend]

Yep, agreed again.  That's why if the GOP could ever get its head around a middle way immigration policy, the Dems would be screwed.  I have to say, though, time is getting short for that to happen.  The longer the GOP waits, the more entrenched voting patterns become.  The longer the GOP is "anti-immigration," the longer it will be perceived as anti-immigration.  There are now a couple of solid Dem Hispanic generations in the US . . . much longer and the GOP risks them becoming more like the African American bloc -- a core Dem constituency.  

With Republicans like Ralph (no eating dead baby) Shortey and Sally (Gay's worse than terrorist) Kern, it's not looking too positive on the reasoning thing.

[Conan71]

Yep, agreed again.  That's why if the GOP could ever get its head around a middle way immigration policy, the Dems would be screwed.  I have to say, though, time is getting short for that to happen.  The longer the GOP waits, the more entrenched voting patterns become.  The longer the GOP is "anti-immigration," the longer it will be perceived as anti-immigration.  There are now a couple of solid Dem Hispanic generations in the US . . . much longer and the GOP risks them becoming more like the African American bloc -- a core Dem constituency.  

I only caught bits and pieces last night as they were talking to the mayor of Miami, but it sounds like Cuban-Americans are fairly conservative.  The Cubans have pretty well assimilated into the U.S.  I would suspect virtually all of the Cuban refugees from the major flotillas of the 1980s have become citizens.

[AquaMan]

Hispanics have very traditional family values which actually seem more in line with the Christian conservatives:  anti-abortion, and they generally frown on homosexuality and gay marriage.

I'd say the immigration issue is about the only thing which makes them favor the Democrats, that's why the GOP would be wise to adopt sensible immigration policy.

I wasn't being specific enough. I doubt they can identify with the Mormon religion and his immigration stance. Catholics are all about generosity, forgiveness, reaching out to help the poor and weak. I can't see that those elements are perceived as part of the Mormon image, though indeed they may excel at them.

[Conan71]

I wasn't being specific enough. I doubt they can identify with the Mormon religion and his immigration stance. Catholics are all about generosity, forgiveness, reaching out to help the poor and weak. I can't see that those elements are perceived as part of the Mormon image, though indeed they may excel at them.

Mormonism and Catholicism are actually very similar in those regards.  But the whole thing of the Book of Mormon considering the Catholic Church to be a whore on the Christian faith could be a sticky point if less-informed Hispanics looked deeper into what the Book Of Mormon has to say about Catholicism.

Here's a good read from the Rolling Stone blog on why his Mormonism is a non-issue for most voters:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/national-affairs/why-mitt-romneys-mormonism-doesnt-matter-20120131

And here's why Hispanics won't identify with Romney:

""As for Romney, immigration and the Hispanic vote, put a fork in him. He's done, cooked, burnt," said Frank Sharry, the founder and executive director of the Democratic group America's Voice. Sharry said Democrats would have had reason to fear an immigration moderate with strong Hispanic credentials like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who recently warned his party to moderate its "tone" on immigration.

But the former Massachusetts governor, he argued, finds himself in an impossible position. "What can Romney do? If he flip-flops in the general, he'll piss off his new hard-liner friends on the right and underscore his flip-flopping reputation; he stays hard right and [angers] the fastest growing voter bloc in the country."

Some Republicans have come around to the same opinion.

"Romney has done himself some real damage," said Ana Navarro, a Florida Republican who has advised John McCain and Jeb Bush. "Romney has now thrown Obama a lifesaver on the issue. It's been stupid and unnecessary. He could have been more nuanced and left himself room to maneuver."


Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71988.html#ixzz1l9yHIrKs

He's got too much on the record indicating he's more of a hard-liner on immigration. However, if he had Rubio with a running mate, he might get more Hispanic votes.  And if Rubio became VP, perhaps there could be some better moderate dialogue on immigration reform.

[AquaMan]

Jeb Bush as a running mate may help as well.

[Conan71]

Jeb Bush as a running mate may help as well.

Hahaha!  Yeah might help with ending up with 25% of the popular vote and handing President Obama a landslide reminiscent of 1984.  Jeb might resonate well with Florida Hispanics but he would fall on deaf ears with the general electorate, including legions of Republicans.

I heard some blurbs about Romney clearing the way for a Jeb Bush run in 2016, but I don't buy it.  Considering there's been a Bush in the executive branch for 20 out of the last 32 years, most people would say:

"ANYONE BUT A BUSH!"

[Gaspar]

Certainly doesn't look like Newt's courting the #2, unless you are actually talking about #2!

I can see Santorum positioning himself for the spot.  That would satisfy a broad spectrum of Republican support.

[nathanm]

I only caught bits and pieces last night as they were talking to the mayor of Miami, but it sounds like Cuban-Americans are fairly conservative.  The Cubans have pretty well assimilated into the U.S.  I would suspect virtually all of the Cuban refugees from the major flotillas of the 1980s have become citizens.

I was actually talking to some people about the politics of the Florida Cubans when I was in Miami in December. Cubans are a drop in the bucket, compared to other islanders and other spanish-speaking immigrants, but the older ones are highly vocal and typically Republican because they see authoritarian communism around every corner. The younger generations tend to trend more Democratic in their voting patterns, as do the other immigrant populations. Since they don't have the fear of communism come to America driving much of their thought process, they know whose immigration planks will see the remainder of their families left back home.

The other x-factor driving a lot of latinos towards Democrats is the Ollie North rat bucking that was going on in many of their countries for years and years. We basically taught them to be afraid of Republicans. When someone supports roving rape and death squads that were deployed against people much like yourself, you tend not to forget.

It is true that a lot of them are rather Catholic, but they mostly don't treat religion like the fundies do. Some of the small town folks do, but it's not really the norm, especially among the younger generations.

[Conan71]

I was actually talking to some people about the politics of the Florida Cubans when I was in Miami in December. Cubans are a drop in the bucket, compared to other islanders and other spanish-speaking immigrants, but the older ones are highly vocal and typically Republican because they see authoritarian communism around every corner. The younger generations tend to trend more Democratic in their voting patterns, as do the other immigrant populations. Since they don't have the fear of communism come to America driving much of their thought process, they know whose immigration planks will see the remainder of their families left back home.

The other x-factor driving a lot of latinos towards Democrats is the Ollie North rat bucking that was going on in many of their countries for years and years. We basically taught them to be afraid of Republicans. When someone supports roving rape and death squads that were deployed against people much like yourself, you tend not to forget.

It is true that a lot of them are rather Catholic, but they mostly don't treat religion like the fundies do. Some of the small town folks do, but it's not really the norm, especially among the younger generations.

Interesting, thanks for the perspective.

So basically Catholic Hispanics are better at the concept of separation of church and state than fundies, eh?

[heironymouspasparagus]

There's a sensible solution for immigration and dealing with those already within our borders.  I believe we've beat the topic well into the ground on here so no need to expand greatly on it.  Any candidate who proposes anything other than some sort of logical path to citizenship which allows illegals to remain in the country until they can go through proper channels to secure a visa and eventually attain American citizenship is being disingenuous or doesn't want to take a serious and practical approach to the problem.

What is it with you??  You come up with stuff like this that you say you believe that is quintessential liberal social policy (good stuff, I might add).  And then you go on about the right like they have, or are, an answer to everything.  You must resolve that inner conflict and just admit to yourself that you really aren't all that extremist right wing nut job stuff inside!


Does it scare you how much I agree with you on this topic??  (Gotta admit, I'm a little nervous...)

[heironymouspasparagus]

So basically Catholic Hispanics are better at the concept of separation of church and state than fundies, eh?

Quite possibly.

There are places in this country (parts of the south) where kids are taught in church from the get-go that Catholics are Communists.  Kind of hard to create common cause with people that you believe are the enemy at the most basic level.  (Kind of makes me wonder how so many of those Cuban refugees ended up so strongly Republican.)

[Conan71]

What is it with you??  You come up with stuff like this that you say you believe that is quintessential liberal social policy (good stuff, I might add).  And then you go on about the right like they have, or are, an answer to everything.  You must resolve that inner conflict and just admit to yourself that you really aren't all that extremist right wing nut job stuff inside!


Does is scare you how much I agree with you on this topic??  (Gotta admit, I'm a little nervous...)

There's really no other logical way to deal with immigration.  Trying to round up millions of illegal aliens and return them to their homelands would be an expensive and impossible proposition.  The first leader who gets real on immigration reform earns a voting bloc of millions of Hispanics for their party.  If Romney wins, he would do well to approach immigration in this way.  However, based on his previous statements on immigration, I'm not sure he will.  So what if he pisses off the far right of the GOP?  They account for maybe 20% of the total American Electorate.  He could have a second term election much like Reagan did in 1984 if the economy had turned around and he made immigration reform his landmark legacy bill.

Republican politicians would do well to figure something out about the far right wing of the party by seeing what Democrats have figured out about the far left wing of their party: you don't have to pander to the extremes of the party because there is simply no way a staunch liberal would shift support to the GOP and vice versa.  

I hear far more about liberals complaining that Democrats sold them out with moderate policies than I do the far right saying the GOP sold them out.  The reason being is that GOP members keep playing to the far right instead of adopting a more moderate approach which is what is needed to get the country moving in the right direction again.  

I'm probably the most moderate person on TNF.  I don't really consider my views ever as partisan, just common sense.  There are some parts of traditional GOP dogma I agree with and some parts of traditional Democrat dogma I agree with.  I'm what I self-describe as a fiscal conservative and social liberal.

I suppose I'm the result of what happens when a Democrat marries a Republican.  My dad was a Democrat because if he wanted to go anywhere politically back in the 1960's in Oklahoma, he had to be a Democrat.  I actually used to have views which aligned much more with the right, but I've become more of a Libertarian as I've gotten older.

[Conan71]

And for the record: I don't think absolute amnesty is any sort of a solution. I think there needs to be a path to citizenship that has to be followed as well as criminal background screening so we can send the undesirables and trouble-makers back while welcoming those who really want to be productive and law-abiding American citizens.  I realize that's somewhat of an oxymoron since, by definition, they are criminals if they migrated here and bypassed the legal channels to do so.