Dow Jones is up

[Conan71]

Yes, the sky was also falling in 1994.

I don't disagree with the facts, obviously, but it's pretty clearly what happens in/after every recession. The little guys will almost always have a harder time finding financing than the huge established players and so they're a lot more susceptible to the ebb and flow of the economy. It's part of that creative destruction that capitalism brings us.

What is going on now doesn't even compare to 1994.  You can't ignore the obvious ill effects of free trade agreements on American manufacturing and even tech jobs.  Those jobs found cheaper labor markets.

[nathanm]

What is going on now doesn't even compare to 1994.  You can't ignore the obvious ill effects of free trade agreements on American manufacturing and even tech jobs.  Those jobs found cheaper labor markets.

It's a difference of degree, not kind. As you know, I am in full agreement(?) with you on the 'pancakes will all these people who have historically been employed in manufacturing do' question. There was a pretty good article about the topic in the Atlantic last month.

On the bright side, it's a problem that will solve itself if energy prices keep skyrocketing.

[Conan71]

It's a difference of degree, not kind. As you know, I am in full agreement(?) with you on the 'pancakes will all these people who have historically been employed in manufacturing do' question. There was a pretty good article about the topic in the Atlantic last month.

On the bright side, it's a problem that will solve itself if energy prices keep skyrocketing.

That's a very interesting point.  How foobared will China be on transportation costs if diesel or bunker C goes to $6 or $7 a gallon?

[Gaspar]

China is willing to do many things that we are not.

[we vs us]

China is willing to do many things that we are not.

Not necessarily a good thing. 

[nathanm]

That's a very interesting point.  How foobared will China be on transportation costs if diesel or bunker C goes to $6 or $7 a gallon?

Less so now than they would have been 10 years ago. There is a fairly robust domestic market now, although it's still largely predicated on the success of their export business. I think that if they can get their QC up to even Korean standards their export market will be fine in the medium term. It'll be a big saving when companies aren't throwing away half the stuff that comes over on the boat. In the longer term rising wages and rising energy costs will make it cost prohibitive to do so much transoceanic shipping.

[Conan71]

Of course, one thought dawned on me when at lunch: The Chinese are doing everything possible to buy up favorable exploration contracts and secure cheap oil.  Something else we seem well-suited to cede to the Chinese.

[dbacks fan]

Less so now than they would have been 10 years ago. There is a fairly robust domestic market now, although it's still largely predicated on the success of their export business. I think that if they can get their QC up to even Korean standards their export market will be fine in the medium term. It'll be a big saving when companies aren't throwing away half the stuff that comes over on the boat. In the longer term rising wages and rising energy costs will make it cost prohibitive to do so much transoceanic shipping.

Chinese Automotive QC....

[heironymouspasparagus]

Koch/John Zink has bought several of the major players in the combustion industry in the last few years.  That's limited competition and led to less price competition.  We can't really match technology on the largest end of that product spectrum, but we can be way competitive in the middle and lower end.  In other words, there are customers who will have to deal with a company like John Zink, Zeeco, or Calidus (Honeywell) out of project necessity as the vendors we represent don't bother with that market.  

Whew!  What a long time it has been.  I remember when Callidus was starting up and a few I worked with went there.  Now, just a couple months ago, I saw an ad for a controls engineer, and when I checked into it, Honeywell now owns them.

[heironymouspasparagus]

That's a very interesting point.  How foobared will China be on transportation costs if diesel or bunker C goes to $6 or $7 a gallon?

Even at dozens or hundreds of gallons per mile, the cost per container is still gonna be pretty cheap in the overall scheme of things - those boats hold a lot.

[TulsaRufnex]

That's some solid Helvetica.

I find Helvetica to be pretty bold, truth be told....