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Those socialists in the CBO

Started by nathanm, February 26, 2012, 01:29:33 PM

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nathanm

February 26, 2012, 01:29:33 PM
So those damn socialists in the CBO keep releasing reports on how the stimulus is affecting the economy.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43014

Quote
CBO estimates that ARRA's policies had the following effects in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2011 compared with what would have occurred otherwise:


       
  • They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.2 percent and 1.5 percent,
  • They lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.2 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points,
  • They increased the number of people employed by between 0.3 million and 2.0 million, and
  • They increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 0.4 million to 2.6 million. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

That's Q411.
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

Conan71

#1
February 27, 2012, 10:44:09 AM
That's such a wide spread in numbers, that tells me the CBO is simply taking stabs at it with no real clue.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

Gaspar

#2
February 27, 2012, 10:51:23 AM
Quote from: Conan71 on February 27, 2012, 10:44:09 AM
That's such a wide spread in numbers, that tells me the CBO is simply taking stabs at it with no real clue.

Probably why no one has decided to tout those numbers.

I predict that unemployment will go down between .01 and 8% over then next 3 to 100 years.
When attacked by a mob of clowns, always go for the juggler.

nathanm

#3
February 28, 2012, 12:26:05 AM Last Edit: February 28, 2012, 12:31:07 AM by nathanm
Quote from: Conan71 on February 27, 2012, 10:44:09 AM
That's such a wide spread in numbers, that tells me the CBO is simply taking stabs at it with no real clue.

They are quite clear regarding their methodology, so no, they're not just guessing. But rather than just blow smoke up your donkey and pick whatever number they like from the range to give the impression of more measurement precision than exists or can exist they trust the reader to understand confidence intervals.
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

heironymouspasparagus

#4
February 28, 2012, 05:14:57 AM
Quote from: nathanm on February 28, 2012, 12:26:05 AM
They are quite clear regarding their methodology, so no, they're not just guessing. But rather than just blow smoke up your donkey and pick whatever number they like from the range to give the impression of more measurement precision than exists or can exist they trust the reader to understand confidence intervals.

That would take some minimal understanding of a mildly technical concept - way beyond the vast majority.


Oh, geez.... Santorum is up now, welcoming the Duggers to his event.

"So he brandished a gun, never shot anyone or anything right?"  --TeeDub, 17 Feb 2018.

I don't share my thoughts because I think it will change the minds of people who think differently.  I share my thoughts to show the people who already think like me that they are not alone.

we vs us

#5
February 28, 2012, 08:23:37 AM
Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on February 28, 2012, 05:14:57 AM
That would take some minimal understanding of a mildly technical concept - way beyond the vast majority.


Oh, geez.... Santorum is up now, welcoming the Duggers to his event.



Anecdotal: my fam and I went to Hideaway pizza on Cherry St. last weekend for a kid-friendly lunch.  Who should be there but the entirety of the Duggar clan who were in town stumping for Santorum.  My meager clan decided to huddle in the back room and just stay the love out of things.

Conan71

#6
February 28, 2012, 09:48:44 AM Last Edit: February 28, 2012, 09:50:30 AM by Conan71
Nathan, I don't know that I really trust CBO's methodology at all times.  Some of their predictions require conditions which may or may not happen or are entirely unrealistic to happen in a given time frame.  I realize there's always a +/- in the world of statistics, but trust the CBO as the be-all end-all at your own risk.

Quote from: we vs us on February 28, 2012, 08:23:37 AM
Anecdotal: my fam and I went to Hideaway pizza on Cherry St. last weekend for a kid-friendly lunch.  Who should be there but the entirety of the Duggar clan who were in town stumping for Santorum.  My meager clan decided to huddle in the back room and just stay the love out of things.

"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

nathanm

#7
February 28, 2012, 11:29:37 AM
Quote from: Conan71 on February 28, 2012, 09:48:44 AM
trust the CBO as the be-all end-all at your own risk.

I trust nobody absolutely, except SWMBO. ;)
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

Conan71

#8
February 28, 2012, 11:48:35 AM
Quote from: nathanm on February 28, 2012, 11:29:37 AM
I trust nobody absolutely, except SWMBO. ;)

I dunno, I was always told never trust anything which can bleed for five days and not die.
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

nathanm

#9
February 28, 2012, 05:33:39 PM
Quote from: Conan71 on February 28, 2012, 11:48:35 AM
I dunno, I was always told never trust anything which can bleed for five days and not die.

Don't worry, FMC will break you of that soon enough. ;)
"Labor is prior to and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration" --Abraham Lincoln

Hoss

#10
February 28, 2012, 07:44:45 PM
Quote from: nathanm on February 28, 2012, 05:33:39 PM
Don't worry, FMC will break you of that soon enough. ;)

OK that's just plain nasty.

Sent from my Atrix4G with fat fingers

heironymouspasparagus

#11
February 28, 2012, 09:25:45 PM
Quote from: we vs us on February 28, 2012, 08:23:37 AM
Anecdotal: my fam and I went to Hideaway pizza on Cherry St. last weekend for a kid-friendly lunch.  Who should be there but the entirety of the Duggar clan who were in town stumping for Santorum.  My meager clan decided to huddle in the back room and just stay the love out of things.

My condolences for a meal ruined...
"So he brandished a gun, never shot anyone or anything right?"  --TeeDub, 17 Feb 2018.

I don't share my thoughts because I think it will change the minds of people who think differently.  I share my thoughts to show the people who already think like me that they are not alone.

Gaspar

#12
February 29, 2012, 06:15:14 AM Last Edit: February 29, 2012, 07:15:23 AM by Gaspar
Did the The parents sneak off to a dark corner to work on another one?  I wonder if they will name him Tulsa?

Awwww lil Tulsa.
When attacked by a mob of clowns, always go for the juggler.

BKDotCom

#13
February 29, 2012, 06:47:55 AM
Not surprising that the Duggars would stump for the anti-birth-control candidate.

Hoss

#14
February 29, 2012, 06:52:03 AM
Quote from: BKDotCom on February 29, 2012, 06:47:55 AM
Not surprising that the Duggars would stump for the anti-birth-control candidate.

Once again...

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