Let's talk Electoral College

[Conan71]

Marquette University took a poll in Wisconsin October 11-14... Obama at +1.  Margin of error:  3.4.   What should terrify the Obama campaign about this poll is that two weeks earlier (Sept. 27-30), Marquette's poll had Obama at +11.  Guys, like it or not, Wisconsin is in play.

Considering this is the same state where voters voted to retain Scott Walker, I think the 11% in favor of Obama was a highly skewed number.  Wisconsin has been in play all along.

Here's what I'm not seeing this election season which could really hurt Obama: The enthusiasm factor seems to be lacking this time around. I really don't think the Obama turn out will be there in force like it was in 2008, here's why:

I think a lot of the younger voters who were so euphoric in their support in '08 have perhaps learned the hard cold lesson that in spite of a president's promises, life won't necessarily be better in four years. 

It's not an historic election like 2008 was where people could help elect the first black POTUS.

Even to the most ignorant of the electorate, their "Obama money" is long since spent.  Poverty is no better than it was four years ago and I suspect the sound bite we aren't hearing from the lower income classes is "Obama doesn't care about me, all he cares about is partying with JayZ."

His only major agenda issue seems to be rolling back the Bush tax cuts on those earning over $250K.  Big whoop!  That's not as exciting as a promise to overhaul healthcare.  I think most people are convinced that promise is nothing but hot air.

He really doesn't have any new legacy legislation to champion which would get his base on board.

What is there really to be enthusiastic about this go round?

[Townsend]

Considering this is the same state where voters voted to retain Scott Walker

Obviously poll workers paid off by the Koch brothers.

What is there really to be enthusiastic about this go round?

Not really enthusiasm.  Fear. Who really wants Akin backers et al to feel empowered?

[Conan71]

Apathy will keep more voters away from the polls than fear will drive to it. 

I'm sure Nate will be here shortly with a graph to prove me wrong.

[Townsend]

Apathy will keep more voters away from the polls than fear will drive to it. 

Since I live in Oklahoma, all I can do is hope enough fearful people make it to the polls in states that matter.

[Conan71]

Since I live in Oklahoma, all I can do is hope enough fearful people make it to the polls in states that matter.

Yeah, but there's lots of them who fear communism & socialism as well...

We don't have an exclusive headlock on ignorance in Oklahoma.

[Townsend]

Yeah, but there's lots of them who fear communism & socialism as well...

We don't have an exclusive headlock on ignorance in Oklahoma.

When asked to be taken to their leader, they bring 'em here.

[erfalf]

Considering this is the same state where voters voted to retain Scott Walker, I think the 11% in favor of Obama was a highly skewed number.  Wisconsin has been in play all along.

Here's what I'm not seeing this election season which could really hurt Obama: The enthusiasm factor seems to be lacking this time around.

I have been thinking the same thing. I don't know how it will tranlate to the polls, but there is certainly a different tone when it comes to describing Obama. In 2008, Obama was great and a huge breath of fresh air. Today, it just seems like a daily battle to stomp out fires here and there with a far more difficult job of placing blame on someone other than himself.

[guido911]

This isn't good:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#.UIA5GfI93a8.twitter

Now its 52-45 in the uber conservative Gallup poll. 

[Hoss]

This isn't good:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#.UIA5GfI93a8.twitter

Now its 52-45 in the uber conservative Gallup poll. 

Gweed is epitomizing this...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/falling-prey-to-the-dangerous-temptation-to-cherry-pick-polls/

[Gaspar]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Just saw that!  Major map change.  I was expecting a bump from the last debate, but nothing like that.

Libs can rant all they want about Binders of Women, but it seems that women must be tired of being the administration's tools.  

Apparently, every time Romney gets an opportunity to talk to the people, he seems to gain support.

Perhaps if the president could offer a plan, or something different than Tax and Spend.  His message is flat.

. . .and hoss, the reason the RCP poll carries more value is because it aggregates multiple polls in every state to get an average instead of relying on a single poll.

[Hoss]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Just saw that!  Major map change.  I was expecting a bump from the last debate, but nothing like that.

Libs can rant all they want about Binders of Women, but it seems that women must be tired of being the administration's tools.  

Apparently, every time Romney gets an opportunity to talk to the people, he seems to gain support.

Perhaps if the president could offer a plan, or something different than Tax and Spend.  His message is flat.

. . .and hoss, the reason the RCP poll carries more value is because it aggregates multiple polls in every state to get an average instead of relying on a single poll.

But it's not aggregating as many as Nate's analysis does.  Much as you would like to think that just because it's a sub of the NYT that it's biased, IMO, it doesn't appear to be.  He was just as accurate last midterm when it predicted huge gains for the GOP.

But feel free to cherry-pick away.

[Gaspar]

But it's not aggregating as many as Nate's analysis does.  Much as you would like to think that just because it's a sub of the NYT that it's biased, IMO, it doesn't appear to be.  He was just as accurate last midterm when it predicted huge gains for the GOP.

But feel free to cherry-pick away.

Haven't seen Nate's analysis.  Where is it?

[Hoss]

Haven't seen Nate's analysis.  Where is it?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

[Conan71]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Just saw that!  Major map change.  I was expecting a bump from the last debate, but nothing like that.

Libs can rant all they want about Binders of Women, but it seems that women must be tired of being the administration's tools.  

Apparently, every time Romney gets an opportunity to talk to the people, he seems to gain support.

Perhaps if the president could offer a plan, or something different than Tax and Spend.  His message is flat.

. . .and hoss, the reason the RCP poll carries more value is because it aggregates multiple polls in every state to get an average instead of relying on a single poll.

In the absence of any agenda by Obama all they are doing is nit-picking every single gaffe and calling every Romney initiative a lie.

That's not a campaign, it simply points to how incredibly lazy and intellectually dishonest this president really is.

[Hoss]

In the absence of any agenda by Obama all they are doing is nit-picking every single gaffe and calling every Romney initiative a lie.

That's not a campaign, it simply points to how incredibly lazy and intellectually dishonest this president really is.

I'm thinkin' you might be back on the Fox....