Health insurance rates lower with ObamaCare

[Gaspar]

The unintended, but well forecasted consequence is a whole new wave of people dependent on government.  Young, healthy, employed people will now be responsible for medical insurance expenses that in many cases will exceed their car payments.  Not to mention the ultimate decline in quality of care as a result of patient load and healthcare provider scarcity.  

For old people, the mass clinic atmosphere will replace the personal physician as the government strives to create a FAIR care structure to compensate for reduced physician willingness to participate in the declining reimbursement structure of medicare and Obamacare (we are actually already witnessing this).  Ultimately HHS will have to develop a structure of review for the purpose of directing services based on FAIRNESS instead of willingness or ability to pay.  We already see this in GB.  Currently insurance companies and medicare require physicians to code procedures, diagnosis, and treatment under 18,000 codes in the current codebook.  Obamacare increases that to 122,000 individual codes, and as every physician knows, if you apply an incorrect or unapproved code, you don't get reimbursed, and typically the labor the government requires for a review is not worth the collection effort for the physician, so they take the write-off.  

As a physician Rand Paul reviewed the new codebook and had this to say:

"Included among these codes," the senator continued, "will be 312 new codes for injuries from animals; 72 new codes for injuries just from birds; 9 new codes for 'injuries from the macaw."'

"The macaw?" he asked. "I've asked physicians all over the country, 'Have you ever seen an injury from a macaw?"'

He continued, adding that he had found "two new injury codes under Obamacare for 'injuries sustained from a turtle."'

"Now, you might say, 'Well, turtles are dangerous' — but why do you have to have two codes?" he asked.  "Your doctor has to inform the government whether you've been struck by a turtle or bitten by a turtle."

He added:  "There is a new code for ... walking into a lamppost. There's also a code for 'walking into a lamppost, subsequent encounter.'"

"I guess that's if you don't learn," he added. "[T]here is [also] a code ... for 'injuries sustained from burning water skis."'

We are witnessing the final swing of the pendulum, when government creates a degree of complexity so intense that the very market they are attempting to regulate and control collapses on itself.  

[Gaspar]

Final Obamacare regulation released today.  You won't hear this reported gleefully on MSNBC or Huffpoo.  Cost of a family plan under the exchange in 2016 according to the IRS(H)s own estimate (family of 4 with total income of $90,000):

$20,000/yr

http://www.irs.gov/PUP/newsroom/REG-148500-12%20FR.pdf
Page 56.

That is almost 4X what I am paying for a family of 4.

Single?  No dependents?  Want minimum self only coverage under the exchange (classified as "Minimal Essential Coverage" under Obamacare regs)?

$5,000/yr

Gets better. . .Married, filing jointly with two children and an income of under $50,000?  Good news, you are eligible for CHIP for each child at only $1,000 each.  The standard plan is still $20,000 but, because of your income, and the fact that your children can go on CHIP, you are eligible for the "Silver Plan" for you and your partner.  So your total out of pocket yearly medical plan is only:

$12,500/yr

Awesome!  That's only twice what I pay now for my "Cadillac" insurance.

The good news is that the older folks will still have medicare.  It will just have less money because it is being re-directed to finance the new bureaucracy.
I think this is probably the final nail for the worst piece of legislation ever to receive a presidential signature.

[Cats Cats Cats]

I don't think you understand how examples in IRS documents work.

[Gaspar]

I don't think you understand how examples in IRS documents work.

Please, by all means, enlighten us.

[Cats Cats Cats]

Please, by all means, enlighten us.

They create examples with hypothetical amounts in order to explain how the tax code is implimented in different situations.  An example is not an estimate.  Consider yourself enlightened.

[Gaspar]

They create examples with hypothetical amounts in order to explain how the tax code is implimented in different situations.  An example is not an estimate.  Consider yourself enlightened.

The CBO developed a very similar number in 2010 for the bronze plan (lowest tier).
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10884/01-11-premiums_for_bronze_plan.pdf
Still twice what I pay now.

I'm willing to bet the real number lies somewhere in-between.

[Gaspar]

We already know that the first state to release their exchange rate estimates, California, is seeing an increase between 100 and 123 percent, so it would naturally follow that other estimates would be similar.  I'm willing to bet that's what the IRS is basing their "arbitrary" numbers on.

Also, don't you think it would be a bit irresponsible for the IRS to publish a document implying such an extreme increase unless there was some basis for it?  Their goal is to illustrate penalties, so why inflate the estimate of cost?

[Cats Cats Cats]

The CBO developed a very similar number in 2010 for the bronze plan (lowest tier).
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10884/01-11-premiums_for_bronze_plan.pdf
Still twice what I pay now.

I'm willing to bet the real number lies somewhere in-between.

" between $12,000 and $12,500 for family policies."
So $12,500 is about $20,000?

http://coveredca.com/calculating_the_cost.html
For a silver plan California estimates your premiums making 200k a year with both parents 40 years old and two kids under 21 as $880 a month or $10,560 a year.  There is still bronze below that.

[RecycleMichael]

Don't confuse gaspar as someone who is good at math.

Real numbers don't interest him. They don't fit his preconceived bias.

[Gaspar]

" between $12,000 and $12,500 for family policies."
So $12,500 is about $20,000?

http://coveredca.com/calculating_the_cost.html
For a silver plan California estimates your premiums making 200k a year with both parents 40 years old and two kids under 21 as $880 a month or $10,560 a year.  There is still bronze below that.

That woud be accurate.  Current California quotes for zipcode 90210, for a family of 4 with a typical deductible are currently half that.


So if the argument is "will it make my rates go up 400% or will it make them go up only 100%" I will concede to you and we can agree that it may only make rates go up 100%.

[Cats Cats Cats]

We already know that the first state to release their exchange rate estimates, California, is seeing an increase between 100 and 123 percent, so it would naturally follow that other estimates would be similar.  I'm willing to bet that's what the IRS is basing their "arbitrary" numbers on.

Also, don't you think it would be a bit irresponsible for the IRS to publish a document implying such an extreme increase unless there was some basis for it?  Their goal is to illustrate penalties, so why inflate the estimate of cost?

No.. I don't think its irresonsible for the IRS to publish ficticious numbers to show how the tax code works.  

Here are the numbers from California but they leave off kids..
http://www.coveredca.com/news/PDFs/CC_Health_Plans_Booklet.pdf

If you had 4 adults that were 40 years old (since they don't show cost for children).  It would cost $236 per month per adult (3rd most affordable).  That would be $11,328 for 4 40 year olds to get the third least expensive bronze plan.

[Gaspar]

No.. I don't think its irresonsible for the IRS to publish ficticious numbers to show how the tax code works.  

Here are the numbers from California but they leave off kids..
http://www.coveredca.com/news/PDFs/CC_Health_Plans_Booklet.pdf

If you had 4 adults that were 40 years old (since they don't show cost for children).  It would cost $236 per month per adult (3rd most affordable).  That would be $11,328 for 4 40 year olds to get the third least expensive bronze plan.

That is correct.  The same plan today with a smaller deductible and lower co-pay is $117 per person.  
Here are the other out of pocket expenses based on the exchange plan.
http://coveredca.com/PDFs/English/CoveredCA-HealthPlanBenefitsComparisonChart.pdf

So it seems we are in agreement that the plan, at least in California, essentially doubles the cost of health insurance and increases out of pocket expenses.

[Cats Cats Cats]

That woud be accurate.  Current California quotes for zipcode 90210, for a family of 4 with a typical deductible are currently half that.


So if the argument is "will it make my rates go up 400% or will it make them go up only 100%" I will concede to you and we can agree that it may only make rates go up 100%.

Those are 50% and 40% copay different plans.  Also if you can get insurance cheaper you just buy that then.  Then your rates go up 0%.  Just because somebody sells a car that costs $200k doesn't mean thats what my car costs.

[Cats Cats Cats]

That is correct.  The same plan today with a smaller deductible and lower co-pay is $117 per person.  
Here are the other out of pocket expenses based on the exchange plan.
http://coveredca.com/PDFs/English/CoveredCA-HealthPlanBenefitsComparisonChart.pdf

So it seems we are in agreement that the plan, at least in California, essentially doubles the cost of health insurance and increases out of pocket expenses.

In agreement?  Show me that the health care costs you just quoted doubled because of the exchange?  It used to be $200 a month?  You are making these huge claims that because there is an exchange that it "doubles the cost of health insurance and increases out of pocket expenses".  First, get an equivalent cost comparions with at least close to the same coinsurance/deductibles.

[Gaspar]

Those are 50% and 40% copay different plans.  Also if you can get insurance cheaper you just buy that then.  Then your rates go up 0%.  Just because somebody sells a car that costs $200k doesn't mean thats what my car costs.

If the government creates an exchange that sells a plan for $12,500, you can damn well be sure that the insurance companies will make sure that the next cheapest plan is only a few bucks short of that.  This is the prime example of what happens with government price-fixing.

If the government says the Dodge Avenger is worth $200k, and sells it for such, you can bet Chris Nichols and all of the other Dodge dealerships will want to fill that profit gap, yet still compete by selling it for $150K.  Hell of a deal!