Mayor 2013: Over in June?

[Gaspar]

OMG!  Google "Glamour Shots"  The images will keep you busy for hours!

[Conan71]

There was a well-played strategy on the Bartlet (sic) campaign.  I don't recall hearing ads going after Taylor, but there were plenty of ads airing on the radio and TV against Christiansen.  They correctly estimated that they needed to marginalize Christiansen as much as possible and hope for a run-off with Taylor.  I don't know why they wouldn't have gone after Taylor and tried for an out-right win or perhaps they figured even though this was a non-partisan election that the (R) vote was splitting between Dewey and Bill. 

Now what happens to the Christiansen voters?  Do they like Dewey less than Taylor or Taylor less than Dewey?  Will they buy into advertising painting Taylor as a tax-and-spend liberal, a gun-grubber, and Obama supporter?

Kathy Taylor seems to have a pretty steady following and she should retain all the voters from yesterday, but how does she appeal to the conservative base that Christiansen has?  That will be a really tough task.

[AquaMan]

Good analysis. I think Bartlett played it well by understanding this as a party race and picturing Christiansen as too much of a fringe guy. Now the race gets real close and people watch for mistakes. Bartlett's proposed counter to the city counsilors budget may be that mistake. Guns or butter?

Taylor took my area and most of the North it looks like by 2-1. But the combo of Bartlett/Christiansen was just as strong out south.  If the majority of Christiansen followers lean Bartlett's direction this could expose a real North-South-East-West division in the city.

I still see KT's emphasis on gender as the deciding factor. Look at the pictures in the World the last few days. Bartlett is backgrounded with mostly men and family. KT is backgrounded with women, no family. It is a factor.

[Gaspar]

There was a well-played strategy on the Bartlet (sic) campaign.  I don't recall hearing ads going after Taylor, but there were plenty of ads airing on the radio and TV against Christiansen.  They correctly estimated that they needed to marginalize Christiansen as much as possible and hope for a run-off with Taylor.  I don't know why they wouldn't have gone after Taylor and tried for an out-right win or perhaps they figured even though this was a non-partisan election that the (R) vote was splitting between Dewey and Bill.  

Now what happens to the Christiansen voters?  Do they like Dewey less than Taylor or Taylor less than Dewey?  Will they buy into advertising painting Taylor as a tax-and-spend liberal, a gun-grubber, and Obama supporter?

Kathy Taylor seems to have a pretty steady following and she should retain all the voters from yesterday, but how does she appeal to the conservative base that Christiansen has?  That will be a really tough task.

I think the media will play a big part too.  When she was mayor, Taylor was always in front of a camera.  You could hardly escape a day in the Tulsa Whirld without at least two shots of KT at a fundraising event, or a dinner, or awards ceremony.  She provided layers of eloquent statements, and sound-bytes.  If someone was giving money, taking money, or having a dedication, KT was there front-and-center. She was an excellent PR figure for Tulsa.  Dewey is just not all that.  

I think the media recognizes this, and will work very hard to present KT in a favorable light.

Besides that, KT's own internal campaign media machine is amazing.  My wife has kept all of the KT swag from the past couple of weeks that was posted on our door/doorstep.  We have 2 different door hangers, one large glossy brochure, and 4 or 5 small postcard sized sheets.  In the mail we received 4 different mailers, all made of the best paper with high gloss aqueous coating.  I think we probably have 1/2 a trees worth of campaign swag from Taylor.  For Bartlett, we received a single postcard and one door hanger.  Both were the same design with the same copy, and the photography was amateur.  His PR group sucks, but at least he's not blowing a bunch of money on paper.  He's going to have to step it up if he is going to compete against the Taylor media machine.

[RecycleMichael]

That Taylor media machine was something. She must have good people (disclosure...I kinda know one of them).

Remember that Kathy beat an incumbent republican Mayor for her first term. Bill LaFortune and Dewey very similar candidates and LaFortune had a high primary turnout against Chris Medlock and Randi Miller then. In the general election, those voters either stayed home or voted for Taylor.

Bill Christiansen campaigned against Dewey Bartlett and Dewey against him. The mailings and commercials I saw got a little testy, including this one...

http://deweybartlett.com/which-bill-christiansen-is-running-for-mayor

There is an imbedded link where Dewey makes fun of Christiansen supporters as well. If I was one, that would sure make me not support him in November.

[carltonplace]

If Dewey should put Christiansen in his administration, then he takes it.

[Gaspar]

If Dewey should put Christiansen in his administration, then he takes it.

That partnership is a given.  Look for the announcement in the coming weeks.

[sgrizzle]

That partnership is a given.  Look for the announcement in the coming weeks.

I see him endorsing Dewey and having nothing to do with him for the next few years while he solidifies his "you should've elected me" campaign strategy for next time.

[sgrizzle]

Besides that, KT's own internal campaign media machine is amazing.  My wife has kept all of the KT swag from the past couple of weeks that was posted on our door/doorstep.  We have 2 different door hangers, one large glossy brochure, and 4 or 5 small postcard sized sheets.  In the mail we received 4 different mailers, all made of the best paper with high gloss aqueous coating.  I think we probably have 1/2 a trees worth of campaign swag from Taylor.  For Bartlett, we received a single postcard and one door hanger.  Both were the same design with the same copy, and the photography was amateur.  His PR group sucks, but at least he's not blowing a bunch of money on paper.  He's going to have to step it up if he is going to compete against the Taylor media machine.

My wife got one thing from Taylor, I got zero, and the only vote I've missed in ten years was a school bond issue. My mailbox was stacks of County Commish flyers and probably 4-5 from Dewey and another 4-5 from Bill.

[Gaspar]

My wife got one thing from Taylor, I got zero, and the only vote I've missed in ten years was a school bond issue. My mailbox was stacks of County Commish flyers and probably 4-5 from Dewey and another 4-5 from Bill.

You also ran as a dirty dirty libertarian. You are marked with the stink.

They didn't just drop them off at our door, they were well dressed professional canvassers.  They rang the doorbell in hopes of talking to us before leaving swag.  We have cameras, so we saw them coming.

I don't answer the door for folks wearing a tie!  

. . .Only occasionally for folks with a spray bottle willing to drink their own cleaning product.  

[RecycleMichael]

That partnership is a given.  Look for the announcement in the coming weeks.

Not so fast...
This is from Bill Christiansen facebook page...

Official campaign statement:
After a long campaign of over 9000 meetings and thousands of phone calls it is important to express how humbled I am for all of your support. For those that worked with me I am deeply indebted to you and I will never forget you. As for an endorsement I have decided to take a breather for a week to watch the NY Mets play a ball game and spend some time with my family. Upon my return I will meet with both of my opponents and then do what is best for Tulsa. I love Tulsa and may God Bless this great city.

[DTowner]

The normal rule of thumb is that that second place finisher has the advantage going into a runoff election.  This is typically because the front runner has maxed out his/her support and the bottom finishers' supporters tend to coalesce around the second place candidate.  Then it is about who's voters turn out.

It seemed pretty clear from the get go that no one was likely to get over 50% in this election, so it made since for Bartlett to focus his efforts on simply being in the top 2 to move on to November.

I did not study the precinct results in detail, but the few in midtown I looked at had Bartlett running pretty close to Taylor.  If you combine the Bartlett/Christianson vote, Bartlett wins many /most of the midtown precincts that Taylor won.

Channel 6 reported that Christianson already endorsed Bartlett - based on the above, that was apparently incorrect.

None of the general rules may apply to this election, however, because: 1) the long gap between now and the runoff creates a lot more unpredictability.  It is also likely that Taylor will continue to outspend Bartlett by a wide margin and a longer campaign could accentuate that difference.  2)  Both candidates are essentially running as the incumbent and both are touting their records as mayor as the reason to support them, so there is no outsider versus insider dynamic at play.  3)  Turn out in November will be heavily influenced by other issues on the ballot.

[RecycleMichael]

http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/Christiansen_may_not_endorse_Bartlett/20130612_767_0_Former127950

Christiansen may not endorse Bartlett

Former City Councilor Bill Christiansen says he is unsure whether he will follow through on a promise to endorse Mayor Dewey Bartlett after losing Tuesday's primary election, saying mudslinging from Bartlett's campaign over the months has irked him and supporters.

"I think I said I probably would endorse him, yes, but I said that many months before he, in my opinion, started lying about me in his campaign," Christiansen said. "It's just hard to swallow, and I just have to make sure I'm endorsing the right person for the city of Tulsa."

Christiansen was quoted in news media early in the mayoral race saying he would endorse his fellow Republican if he were to lose in the primary, and he said after his concession speech Tuesday that "I've given my word that I will endorse him, and I am a man of my word."

He softened that by adding that he would have to meet with Bartlett to make a final decision. He said Wednesday that both Bartlett and former Mayor Kathy Taylor, a Democrat, have negatives and positives as candidates and that he will meet with both of them before making an endorsement decision.

No endorsement is also a possibility, he said. He said he plans to take a weeklong vacation with family before arranging the meetings.

Taylor captured 42 percent of Tuesday's vote over Bartlett's 34 percent and Christiansen's 23 percent. The candidates competed directly as part of the city's new nonpartisan election system. Taylor and Bartlett will compete again in the Nov. 12 general election, and both will focus on swaying Christiansen supporters.

But many of those supporters are bitter after months of mudslinging from Bartlett, including efforts to paint Christiansen as the "big union" candidate, mailers linking Christiansen to Taylor's decision to move City Hall and live cold calls spreading incorrect information, Christiansen said.

Read more in Thursday's Tulsa World

[Gaspar]

http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/Christiansen_may_not_endorse_Bartlett/20130612_767_0_Former127950

Christiansen may not endorse Bartlett

Former City Councilor Bill Christiansen says he is unsure whether he will follow through on a promise to endorse Mayor Dewey Bartlett after losing Tuesday's primary election, saying mudslinging from Bartlett's campaign over the months has irked him and supporters.

"I think I said I probably would endorse him, yes, but I said that many months before he, in my opinion, started lying about me in his campaign," Christiansen said. "It's just hard to swallow, and I just have to make sure I'm endorsing the right person for the city of Tulsa."

Christiansen was quoted in news media early in the mayoral race saying he would endorse his fellow Republican if he were to lose in the primary, and he said after his concession speech Tuesday that "I've given my word that I will endorse him, and I am a man of my word."

He softened that by adding that he would have to meet with Bartlett to make a final decision. He said Wednesday that both Bartlett and former Mayor Kathy Taylor, a Democrat, have negatives and positives as candidates and that he will meet with both of them before making an endorsement decision.

No endorsement is also a possibility, he said. He said he plans to take a weeklong vacation with family before arranging the meetings.

Taylor captured 42 percent of Tuesday's vote over Bartlett's 34 percent and Christiansen's 23 percent. The candidates competed directly as part of the city's new nonpartisan election system. Taylor and Bartlett will compete again in the Nov. 12 general election, and both will focus on swaying Christiansen supporters.

But many of those supporters are bitter after months of mudslinging from Bartlett, including efforts to paint Christiansen as the "big union" candidate, mailers linking Christiansen to Taylor's decision to move City Hall and live cold calls spreading incorrect information, Christiansen said.

Read more in Thursday's Tulsa World

LOL!  Foreplay.  Love it!

[sauerkraut]

None of the 3 people running were conservatives, I don't like to re-elect current office holders. IMO it's anyone but Dewy and I'm a conservative. I think he's like a scatter brain. The boondoggle of the airport thing and taxpayer money for AA, then you had that vission 25 thing or was it vision 2, the roads are in shambles with construction all over it's affecting commerce, costing people money- now they want to shut down highway 75 North bound, and start work on north Riverside drive, and in the busy summer time they tear up a major intersection at Admiral & Memorial. As if it can't wait. The RiverSide Jogging Trail is being re-built from I-44 to 56th street right in the middle of the summer and will be closed till October- why does it take 4 months to re-build a 1 mile section of trail that's right in the middle of a high useage area, to be sure the trail needed replacement but why not do in the off season? Then we have more construction on highway 169 & the BA, not to mention neighborhood streets being closed down and torn up, then next year they will be torn up again to put in new water lines. They were tearing up side streets for over two years and still not done. Admiral & Sheridan, Yale & Pine and  side streets  by RiverSide Drive. It's a mess. They need to do one major project and then do the next when the first one is finished. Anyone but Dewy! Choking off commerece is not good. They have Yale a mess and west 71st street is one lane the list is endless. That's not good for the city.