Ukraine

[TheArtist]

   Been watching this unfold and am kind of surprised at how weak the US and it's Allies responses have been.  This is quickly escalating to be a defining moment in history.  A cursory understanding of Putin and Russia would lead one to lay odds on them moving to take at least Crimea and then be in the position to really cause trouble for the rest of Ukraine.  Russia is "just another large country, albeit a potentially deadly one" without Ukraine, with it, they can be far more of a world force, and they know it. 

I can't help but see shades of past despots encroaching on their neighbors.  Especially if this happens it will cause massive unrest and violence in Ukraine which will actually enable Putin to become even more of a totalitarian leader in his now larger country and more chaotic country where he will have to "crack down", which will almost definitely put him in the position to want and take lifetime control of the country, a country that is not doing well and will then do worse because it will become more isolated, frustrated and angry, leading it to blame others for its problems, and so on.

Russia has already gone too far. I can't help but think of what Reagan would be doing right now.  Already ambassadors would be recalled, he would be addressing the nation and the world using very firm language, challenging the allies to do something and garnering their support, putting US troops on higher alert in Europe and making other shows of strength and determination, taking steps to freeze Russian assets, etc.

Putin is already in this far, he is not going to back out, the only way forward for him is forward into Crimea and likely Ukraine.     

[cannon_fodder]

Unmarked Russian units took the Crimia yesterday.  Today, uniformed troops moved in.  Russia has invaded the Russian speaking portion of Ukraine under the pretense of "protecting Russian people and interests." (Worth noting that the USSR deported undesirables from the Crimea and imported ethnic Russians)"  Putin has a blank check from the rubber stamp wielding Parliament.  Expect a move to secure more Eastern/Southern Ukrainian territory.  Also, when we formally protest the US ambassador to Moscowwill be expelled.

Obama should:
1) put together a collation of NATO mme members and Eastern Block countries (Poland, Estonia, Yugoslavia, Serbia, etc) to condemn Russia.  Many have done so on their own.
2) immediately yank Russia out of the G8 (where they don't belong anyway) and scratch Sochi as a meeting place.
3) freeze assets of the oligarchs
4) invite Georgia to take the next NATO step
5) help the Ukraine get an aid package before Russia moves to destroy the economy.

Putin knows he heads a paper tiger.  GDP is flat even with massive oil and gas exports.  The actual economy is in shambles.  The free press, right to assembly, and many other basic rights are dead.  He has to keep something distracting people or things will go bad.

Rebuilding the Soviet Block sure serves nicely.  Russia still occupies parts of Georgia.  Regularly bullies eastern Europe. And blocks significant action against n Korea and other asshats.

We don't need a shooting war, but we can't have Putin putting the wall back up.

[cannon_fodder]

Oh, also... in the 1990s we persuaded the Ukraine to give up their nukes in exchange for protection:

USA/NATO - hey, Ukraine, you don't need 1000 nuclear missiles.
Ukraine - ummm, yes we do. Russia is our neighbor and has crapped on us for centuries
USA - no, Russia's totally cool now. We will guarantee you territorial soveirgnty in exchange for your nukes.
Ukraine - done!

That's suddenly and issue...

[davideinstein]

I don't think we should get involved until it goes beyond Crimea. At that point, we need to go to war with Russia.

[guido911]

[nathanm]

I don't think we should get involved until it goes beyond Crimea. At that point, we need to go to war with Russia.

Wars in Russia have rarely gone well for the invading party. Probably easier/cheaper to persuade the Europeans to quit buying gas from them. I agree that some response is definitely required, but unilaterally starting a shooting war with Russia (who still have 3000 nukes pointed at us, mind) is not a good one.

It was my first thought, also. Bomb their Black Sea naval bases into rubble and they won't have much reason to stay. Easier said than done, though.

[Conan71]

Why is a response warranted?  Haven't we gotten involved in enough family feuds already? 

[nathanm]

Why is a response warranted?  Haven't we gotten involved in enough family feuds already? 

We and the UK (Russia also, but..) guaranteed their security in exchange for sending the several hundred nukes they were left by the Soviets back to Russia. I don't take that to mean that we must start a shooting war immediately, but I do take it to mean that we should probably do something to at least annoy Putin if we'd like to have any chance of future disarmament.

[swake]

Russia is a fading relic of the 20th century that Putin is franticly and futilely trying to restore to Soviet power and glory. In the real world Russia's population is decling having lost almost five million people over the last 25 years. Russia now has a smaller economy and fewer people than Brazil. It's economic power is most similar to Italy. Outside of aging nuclear weapons and some oil there is nothing to make Russia an important country anymore. Putin has made a huge blunder that will isolate Russia from the rest of the world for another generation and will probably destroy what small improvements they have made to the Russian economy.  In winning Crimea he has lost the world. He's not going to take the rest of Ukraine, he's already seen what happened to his puppet there as recently as last week. The last thing he wants is another impoverished, restive and revolutionary minded region, especially one with an army of 200,000 that the west will be more than happy to arm to the teeth.

Taking Crimea from Ukraine will ensure that the Ukraine will never be a Russian ally ever again. Putin's dream of resurrecting The Soviet Union is dead. Crimea was an important location in the Soviet era being the home of a Russian fleet, but today the Black Sea is anything but a strategically important region and that fleet is a museum collection of rusting hulks that will never leave the Black Sea.

We certainly should not confront Putin militarily, we are already winning. Economic sanctions will shatter the Russian economy quite easily. Shutting off Gazprom will help the US and Oklahoma economy as an added nice additional benefit.

[RecycleMichael]

First thing I would do is send over Dennis Rodman.

[cannon_fodder]

Why is a response warranted?  Haven't we gotten involved in enough family feuds already? 

Several reasons:

1) treaty duty
2) we threatened a response, and
3) when a despot invaded a democracy we historically respond.

If we do nothing - why would anyone choose close relations to the US over Russia or China?  China can retake Taiwan. Russia can finish off Georgia and nibble on Poland.  Failure to follow up on ones threats make them utterly worthless - which in the long run means more actual conflict.

We don't need a shooting war - but then again the troops invading Ukraine are unmarked troops.  Russia says they aren't theirs.  We can shoot them, right?  Just terrorists.

All joking aside, no response destroys Americas diplomqcy and may be the end of American hegemony.  When replaced but Russia and China, that's bad.  Very bad.

[swake]

Oh, and another point. Putin did this because he is pissed that the Ukraine won't be joining his version of the EU.

The combined GDP of the EU and the US is 33 trillion dollars. Russia's GDP is just over 2 trillion dollars. Ukraine's GDP is 176 billion dollars, which is only about 10% higher than Oklahoma's.

Putin is delusional.

[Rookie Okie]

Russia is a fading relic of the 20th century that Putin is franticly and futilely trying to restore to Soviet power and glory. In the real world Russia's population is decling having lost almost five million people over the last 25 years. Russia now has a smaller economy and fewer people than Brazil. It's economic power is most similar to Italy. Outside of aging nuclear weapons and some oil there is nothing to make Russia an important country anymore. Putin has made a huge blunder that will isolate Russia from the rest of the world for another generation and will probably destroy what small improvements they have made to the Russian economy.  In winning Crimea he has lost the world. He's not going to take the rest of Ukraine, he's already seen what happened to his puppet there as recently as last week. The last thing he wants is another impoverished, restive and revolutionary minded region, especially one with an army of 200,000 that the west will be more than happy to arm to the teeth.

Taking Crimea from Ukraine will ensure that the Ukraine will never be a Russian ally ever again. Putin's dream of resurrecting The Soviet Union is dead. Crimea was an important location in the Soviet era being the home of a Russian fleet, but today the Black Sea is anything but a strategically important region and that fleet is a museum collection of rusting hulks that will never leave the Black Sea.

We certainly should not confront Putin militarily, we are already winning. Economic sanctions will shatter the Russian economy quite easily. Shutting off Gazprom will help the US and Oklahoma economy as an added nice additional benefit.

Thanks for always getting it right!!  In all seriousness, this merits more widespread publication to the masses outside of this forum.

[TheArtist]

Russia is a fading relic of the 20th century that Putin is franticly and futilely trying to restore to Soviet power and glory. In the real world Russia's population is decling having lost almost five million people over the last 25 years. Russia now has a smaller economy and fewer people than Brazil. It's economic power is most similar to Italy. Outside of aging nuclear weapons and some oil there is nothing to make Russia an important country anymore. Putin has made a huge blunder that will isolate Russia from the rest of the world for another generation and will probably destroy what small improvements they have made to the Russian economy.  In winning Crimea he has lost the world. He's not going to take the rest of Ukraine, he's already seen what happened to his puppet there as recently as last week. The last thing he wants is another impoverished, restive and revolutionary minded region, especially one with an army of 200,000 that the west will be more than happy to arm to the teeth.

Taking Crimea from Ukraine will ensure that the Ukraine will never be a Russian ally ever again. Putin's dream of resurrecting The Soviet Union is dead. Crimea was an important location in the Soviet era being the home of a Russian fleet, but today the Black Sea is anything but a strategically important region and that fleet is a museum collection of rusting hulks that will never leave the Black Sea.

We certainly should not confront Putin militarily, we are already winning. Economic sanctions will shatter the Russian economy quite easily. Shutting off Gazprom will help the US and Oklahoma economy as an added nice additional benefit.

I think your wrong.  Without military force or the threat there of, he will take Crimea and possibly Ukraine.  He won't care about the economic sanctions or what happens to his economy in the short run.  He may "lose the world" for a while but still wields too many leverage points that we and Europe need him for in Europe and in other places in the world (Syria, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Over time he will wind his way back into getting his way. Also, not sure how you can "shut off Gazprom" without hurting Europe and by way of that then hurting our economy?

[swake]

I think your wrong.  Without military force or the threat there of, he will take Crimea and possibly Ukraine.  He won't care about the economic sanctions or what happens to his economy in the short run.  He may "lose the world" for a while but still wields too many leverage points that we and Europe need him for in Europe and in other places in the world (Syria, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Over time he will wind his way back into getting his way. Also, not sure how you can "shut off Gazprom" without hurting Europe and by way of that then hurting our economy?

He's already taken Crimea, which is a small sympathetic and mostly Russian area and a historically Russian area.  He's going to fight a ugly and bloody war against Ukraine? To what end? It's Afghanistan except much worse. Crimea has two million mostly Russian people, Ukraine has 45 million people 80% of which are NOT Russian. Ukraine has 200,000 standing troops and a million reserves that have just been called up. There may be political divisions in Ukraine, but nothing galvanizes a country like an invasion and that's what has happened.

We've canceled the G8 in Sochi, we are likely to kick Russia out of the G8. Gazprom does provide 30% of the natural gas to Western Europe but that's likely over anyway. The easiest way for Ukraine to hurt Russia is to stop the natural gas coming from Russia, the pipelines all go through Ukraine and we happen to have plenty of natural gas. As winter ends gas isn't as important anyway. Russia is irrelevant to North Korea, they are protected by China. Russia is the problem with Syria if we no longer care about keeping Russia happy in Syria our options are widened.

You have the idea that Russia is still some kind of Superpower, they are not. We spend almost $700 billion a year on defense, Russia spends $90 billion. That's about 45 days of spending for us. Russia only spends marginally more than the UK or France. Saudi Arabia spends $56 billion.