Ukraine

[Rookie Okie]

Military force by the U.S. and its allies should be the last option we exercise.  However, since the situation is very fluid and Putin is acting a lot crazier than he is smart, any other possible options could quickly lose their viability.

Putin is jealous and embarrassed by the Ukraine's continuing global economic and social emergence.  I also believe that he would like to create a situation that down spirals the world economy into exactly what his is doing.  Of course an escalating military conflict will accomplish this feat for him.  So I don't advocate just granting him this wish.  Just like all of our other many enemies, Putin knows damn well he can't win.  If we think we should go to war every time one of these fools attempts to goad us into something, we'd being fighting now in Algeria, Libya, Syria, Iran, North Korea, and wherever else I'm leaving out.  

The vast majority of U.S. citizens (and certainly our allies) do not want to go to war.  When weighing the outlandish costs disproportionately borne by the U.S. to fund the recent wars vs. what they have netted, it's simply too much for too little.  Heaven forbid should it come down to this again, U.S. allies will need to drastically step up financially and manpower wise.

I'm not sure how to handle these tyrants and despots, but I haven't heard anyone else put forth anything that I'd flat out support.  Given how long these recent conflicts have lasted, how long would one last with Russia - 15 yrs. or more?  My conception of war is a lot different than that of most others.  It'd be my very last option.  But if I'm running the show and they f'd with me and I had no other option, then I'm taking them out in 48 hours!  For all of those folks out there that believe that the U.S. is soft and needs to make an example of one of its enemies, this is really the only way to deliver that message.  Engaging in a 13 year mess in the rubble known as Afghanistan sure doesn't.

While I do think shutting off Gazprom could cause some pain in Europe, the pain will be much more severe for Russia.  They'll need us and the rest of Europe well before we'd need them.  Additionally, they have other pressure points that economic sanctions would squeeze.  Remember when the curtain was pulled exposing that great big room, it was full of nothing but junk (and still is).



 

[guido911]

Now we know Obama administration is getting serious. They are dragging W into the Ukraine mess.

https://twitter.com/CrowleyTIME/status/440242828812505088

[TheArtist]

He's already taken Crimea, which is a small sympathetic and mostly Russian area and a historically Russian area.  He's going to fight a ugly and bloody war against Ukraine? To what end? It's Afghanistan except much worse. Crimea has two million mostly Russian people, Ukraine has 45 million people 80% of which are NOT Russian. Ukraine has 200,000 standing troops and a million reserves that have just been called up. There may be political divisions in Ukraine, but nothing galvanizes a country like an invasion and that's what has happened.

We've canceled the G8 in Sochi, we are likely to kick Russia out of the G8. Gazprom does provide 30% of the natural gas to Western Europe but that's likely over anyway. The easiest way for Ukraine to hurt Russia is to stop the natural gas coming from Russia, the pipelines all go through Ukraine and we happen to have plenty of natural gas. As winter ends gas isn't as important anyway. Russia is irrelevant to North Korea, they are protected by China. Russia is the problem with Syria if we no longer care about keeping Russia happy in Syria our options are widened.

You have the idea that Russia is still some kind of Superpower, they are not. We spend almost $700 billion a year on defense, Russia spends $90 billion. That's about 45 days of spending for us. Russia only spends marginally more than the UK or France. Saudi Arabia spends $56 billion.

I don't think they are a superpower.  This isn't about what I think, its about how Putin and the Russians think.  They are bullies that think they are big and strong, and that being tough and swaggering around is the "manly" thing to do, and that we in the west are Jealous of their natural resources and will do whatever we can to take them from them, etc.  They are a bunch of nut cases in my book, but you keep acting like they are going to look at things as we might, and are not looking at this from their strange, freakish psychological/historical/religious viewpoints.

Threw them out of the G-8?  OMG I can see them trembling lol.  They don't care.

[Gaspar]

This was well calculated by Putin.  The Transcarpathian region, the Dnieper-Donets, and Crimean regions of the Ukraine are heavy natural gas producers, and the country as a whole has some of the most developed, and oldest, web of transport pipelines in Europe, designed to distribute fuels to and from the multitude of Eastern European states.

Sure, Putin would like to see the re-birth of the old Soviet Union, however I think he knows that is unrealistic, but insuring economic stability is not unrealistic, and to do that he needs to fuel the machine.  Russia continues without falter to be our greatest geo-political foe, because they continue to lack economic stability.

Putin faces no consequences for this action, and he knows it.  Certainly not from the Unites States.  He is going to get bolder.  His next move will be to purchase oil from Iran.  He needs the Iranian oil deal, but sanctions have been preventing that.  Condemnation from the US and EU would mean a possible 500K barrels of oil a day from Iran, and Iran will be free to import other resources through Russia.  It's win-win.  He has no need of us or the G8, as long as he has energy and a powerful military.

Putin was given more flexibility, and he simply took it.  When a hungry bear tries to eat you, you cannot blame the bear.

[swake]

This was well calculated by Putin.  The Transcarpathian region, the Dnieper-Donets, and Crimean regions of the Ukraine are heavy natural gas producers, and the country as a whole has some of the most developed, and oldest, web of transport pipelines in Europe, designed to distribute fuels to and from the multitude of Eastern European states.

Sure, Putin would like to see the re-birth of the old Soviet Union, however I think he knows that is unrealistic, but insuring economic stability is not unrealistic, and to do that he needs to fuel the machine.  Russia continues without falter to be our greatest geo-political foe, because they continue to lack economic stability.

Putin faces no consequences for this action, and he knows it.  Certainly not from the Unites States.  He is going to get bolder.  His next move will be to purchase oil from Iran.  He needs the Iranian oil deal, but sanctions have been preventing that.  Condemnation from the US and EU would mean a possible 500K barrels of oil a day from Iran, and Iran will be free to import other resources through Russia.  It's win-win.  He has no need of us or the G8, as long as he has energy and a powerful military.

Putin was given more flexibility, and he simply took it.  When a hungry bear tries to eat you, you cannot blame the bear.

You are aware that Russia is the world's largest oil producer, right? He doesn't need Iranian oil, he needs trade with Iran. Russia would just resale any oil they get from Iran. What good would another 500k barrels of oil do for Russia if they are embargoed?

This wasn't well calculated, this was stupid. Putin has lost Ukraine forever, just like he did with Georgia. Moldova and Georgia are now fast tracked on associations with the EU. I will expect that will happen with Georgia as well and that when the current crisis is over all three states will be will soon be asking for NATO membership. Very likely almost every former Soviet state not named Belarus is going to be asking to join. If that's not losing for Putin, what is?

As for a strong military, let's go over this again, the US spends almost $700 billion a year on defense, the combined total for NATO is almost a trillion dollars a year. Russia spends $90 billion. That's a lot compared to Ukraine, but compared to a future NATO allied Ukraine it's not. This is what he is afraid of, and why in invading Crimea he has already lost.

[cannon_fodder]

Hitler has demanded that the Czech Republic surrender the Sudetenland, in the interest of the German speaking people there and to protect German interests.

My bad, what I meant to say is that Putin has demanded Ukranian forces in their bases within the Ukrainian province of Crimia surrender within 11 hours or be destroyed.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKBREA221AI20140303?irpc=932

Message: "voluntarily" join the new Soviet or be forced to join.

This cannot stand.  It is a blatant violation of international law, triggers a US treaty obligation, and is far too close to history to let it repeat itself.

[Gaspar]

You are aware that Russia is the world's largest oil producer, right? He doesn't need Iranian oil, he needs trade with Iran. Russia would just resale any oil they get from Iran. What good would another 500k barrels of oil do for Russia if they are embargoed?

He needs money, and that is all oil, gas and the means of transportation are.

. . .and they will not be embargoed.  Neither the US or the EU has the guts for anything that would result in out-n-out war.

He sized us up, and did so quite easily.

[carltonplace]

Crimia river, what is Putin's end game here? There will be US and EU response and none of them will help Putin to save face and step down.

[swake]

Crimia river, what is Putin's end game here? There will be US and EU response and none of them will help Putin to save face and step down.

His end game seems to be to take what part of Ukraine he can as payback for Ukraine turning to the west. He's throwing a temper tantrum. He was already pissed that he got snubbed over the Olympics. Angela Merkel thinks he's unhinged. She may be right.

Our goal has to be to keep Putin from going any further and to try to get Crimea back. Getting Crimea back seems unlikely at this point, but we do need to try.

[Townsend]

I don't consider myself an isolationist but I feel a tad war weary. 

I wonder if the costs of getting militarily involved is wise.

[Rookie Okie]

Neither the US or the EU has the guts for anything that would result in out-n-out war.

He sized us up, and did so quite easily.

It's in absolutely no one's best interest to engage in an all out-in-out war.  Putin's also been sized up.  Doesn't have a pot to pi$$ in or a window to throw it out of and the world knows it!  

[nathanm]

I wonder if the costs of getting militarily involved is wise.

Given how much of their forex reserves they have spent today propping up the ruble, and that's after bumping interest rates 2%, I don't think military intervention will be necessary. Just gotta give him a way to save face and he'll GTFO. Unless the rumor that the UK is going to decline to go along with sanctions is true, anyway. If they and the rest of the EU Chamberlain it up, all bets are off.

There is one good thing to come of it, though. This crisis has made explicitly clear who among the pundits is stuck in the Cold War and who has moved on.

[swake]

50% of Russia's federal budget comes from oil and gas sales. We can certainly hurt them badly there. Also cut off western banking and travel visas. We have no need to get into a war.

[Gaspar]

Russia is now backed by China.

Russia is moving long range artillery into Ukraine today (CNN thinks they are tanks   )

2S1 Gvozdikas

How long do you think it will take before President Obama claims Russia is "on the wrong side of history" and shakes his finger?

[Rookie Okie]

Russia is now backed by China.

Russia is moving long range artillery into Ukraine today (CNN thinks they are tanks   )

2S1 Gvozdikas

These Soviet era armored vehicles look older and less sophisticated than the one's used in their invasion of Hungary back in 1956.