Ukraine

[AquaMan]

Well, there it is, about 30 minutes ago at a presser at Powell Elementary School in DC.  When taking questions about the Ukraine, He actually said "We stand on the side of history." 

Huh?  No one knows what that means. Are we somehow outside of the time-space continuum?

If we means you. And maybe Conan.

[AquaMan]

You (and I) are old but not that old.

Ha! Good catch. I must have been channeling my great grandfather.

[cannon_fodder]

Guido:

I was fine with the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  I Supported in on the "6 year old" doctrine.  You can only threaten a 6 year old with a punishment so many times before you have to go through with it .  We had to go through with it regarding Saddam.  Now - I wish we hadn't over hyped our reason and wish we had a better political plan (disbanding the army and banning anyone with experience from government jobs turned out very bad).  But the idea I was fine with (clearly I didn't know ahead of time that we had no real political plan).


Isolationism DOES NOT WORK.  See WWI.  See also WWII.  When the major powers ignore situations that are boiling over very bad things happen.  We worked very hard to be THE world power - socially, economically, politically, and militarily we simply dominate.  Not even close.

That position means we have to lead or get out of the way.  Getting out of the way means, simply, that we are not a reliable ally and Putin, China, N Korea can do as they please.  The equation on that goes very bad.

Fine, just the Crimea.  OK, and Eastern Ukraine.  And parts of Georgia.  Oh, and...  never get involved?

I'm not crying for a shooting war.  There are better ways.  Prop up Ukraine, Poland and Georgia.  Destroy Russian Oligarchs.

Crash oil prices by releasing 100,000,000 from the reserve.  Russia is bankrupt in a month.
http://jalopnik.com/the-genius-way-the-us-could-hurt-russia-and-help-you-at-1535434366

No military response at this point, sure.  But no response to an invasion of a potential NATO ally?

And yes, to a vague extent the USA did a similar thing to Mexico in the 1850s.  And Naples did it to Florence in the 1700s. And England to Scotland.  The Tsars regularily messed with Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, etc. Politics 100+ years ago was very different. 

I'm trying to drag Vlad into the late 20th century. 

[Gaspar]

Russia just test-fired an ICBM.

Now that's some posturing!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-fires-icbm-amid-tension-over-ukraine/

[dbacksfan 2.0]

Russia just test-fired an ICBM.

Now that's some posturing!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/04/russia-test-fires-intercontinental-balli-idUKL6N0M14IW20140304

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-fires-icbm-amid-tension-over-ukraine/

That's not a missile, it's their new humanitarian aid supply delivery system. It will fly overhead and deliver supplies to the deprived Russians, like toilet paper and vodka. You know, like the Berlin airlift.

I also found it funny, when Putin said they are not Russian Troops. All of the stuff they have can be purchased at stores throughout the country as leftover surplus goods.

[AquaMan]

Isolationism DOES NOT WORK.  See WWI.  See also WWII.  When the major powers ignore situations that are boiling over very bad things happen.  We worked very hard to be THE world power - socially, economically, politically, and militarily we simply dominate.  Not even close.

That position means we have to lead or get out of the way.  Getting out of the way means, simply, that we are not a reliable ally and Putin, China, N Korea can do as they please.  The equation on that goes very bad.

Fine, just the Crimea.  OK, and Eastern Ukraine.  And parts of Georgia.  Oh, and...  never get involved?

I'm not crying for a shooting war.  There are better ways.  Prop up Ukraine, Poland and Georgia.  Destroy Russian Oligarchs.

Crash oil prices by releasing 100,000,000 from the reserve.  Russia is bankrupt in a month.
http://jalopnik.com/the-genius-way-the-us-could-hurt-russia-and-help-you-at-1535434366

No military response at this point, sure.  But no response to an invasion of a potential NATO ally?

And yes, to a vague extent the USA did a similar thing to Mexico in the 1850s.  And Naples did it to Florence in the 1700s. And England to Scotland.  The Tsars regularily messed with Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, etc. Politics 100+ years ago was very different. 

I'm trying to drag Vlad into the late 20th century. 

You were fine up to this point. Politics hasn't changed. Only the setting and the players. That was my point. The Borgias did it. The pineapple businessmen in Hawaii did it. Germany did it. Korea did it. Russia did it and is doing it again. We have and will do it if our people or interests are being challenged.

We are already involved. Kerry has promised huge amounts of aid to the Ukraine. I'm sure our missiles and NATO allies are on alert. Economic threats have been made. We are in contact with all parties and what is said in the press and on forums is not likely what is being said behind the scenes. What else would you do? Anyone?

You crash the market and bankrupt mafia owned businesses and they will respond with whatever power they have left. And that is nuclear, troops and tanks. Like the Untouchables, you don't bring a knife to a gun fight. Then a military response is certain. Game over. Species endangered. Only Gas would find humor in Russian ICBM's being test fired.

Sometimes, standing back and taking a deep breath is critical to good decision making. Putin has made his play. If he is in fact in charge he may have played a bad hand. If its the crazies and the military then few solutions are available. China is as key as our allies.

[dbacksfan 2.0]

It was a planned test firing. It was not a surprise test.

A Pentagon official told CBS News that the U.S. detected the launch of the Russian ICBM near the border of Russia and Kazakhstan. Notifications were made ahead of time in accordance with normal procedures. The official said the launch is viewed as non-threatening and is not connected to what is going on in Crimea.

It is unclear exactly what kind of ICBM was launched and how long ago the U.S. was notified about the test.

The state-run news agency RIA cited Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Yegorov as saying the Strategic Rocket Forces launched an RS-12M Topol missile from the southerly Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea and the dummy warhead hit its target at a proving ground in Kazakhstan.

National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden called it a "routine test launch of an ICBM."

"As required under the New START Treaty, Russia provided advance notification of this launch to the United States," Hayden said. "Such advance notifications are intended to provide transparency, confidence, and predictability and to help both sides avoid misunderstandings. Russia and the United States routinely flight test their ICBMs and SLBMs."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-fires-icbm-amid-tension-over-ukraine/

[Gaspar]

After already proudly scraping the long-range missile defense plan in 2009, Obama grows fond of NATO's short range plan, until Medvedev tells Obama that Putin is upset about NATO talks of a missile shield that would border Russia.  But, missile defense was popular because of Iran, and it was an election year.

"This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility."

. . .and dang!  Wouldn't you know it, that NATO missile defense shield never got built at that Ukrainian radar station.  

Aqua, I don't think it's funny that Russia is firing an ICBM.  I think it's horrifying, and the only reason they did it was to tell the world:
LOOK WHAT WE CAN DO.  WE'RE BACK!

As for the timing:

A Pentagon official told CBS News that the U.S. detected the launch of the Russian ICBM near the border of Russia and Kazakhstan. Notifications were made ahead of time in accordance with normal procedures. The official said the launch is viewed as non-threatening and is not connected to what is going on in Crimea.

That's exactly what the Pentagon is going to say.  Can you imagine what would happen if they said "Wow! this was a surprise."
Probably got 24hours notification, and considered their spin strategy. At least they're not blaming it on an internet video.

If they've had notification for a while, wouldn't' you think they (and Russia for that matter) would notify the press so that people wouldn't' become alarmed?

[AquaMan]

Except they've been doing this regularly. Korea also shot off a missile but we also knew about that one. Zip up. Your obsession is showing.

[Gaspar]

Except they've been doing this regularly. Korea also shot off a missile but we also knew about that one. Zip up. Your obsession is showing.

I suppose you are right.  Nothing to see here. 

[AquaMan]

Of course this is serious business. Criticizing our leaders and pulling up quotes out of context from the past aren't solutions though. More flexibility after an election. Really? Who would have guessed that. Maybe....Reagan?

Wonder why we've heard nothing from Ron Paul or his progeny? Or Ted Cruz or the rest of our high profile Teapartiers. Ms.Palin? Can you see any contrails dear?

[Townsend]

individuals talking softly into a thunderstorm...or whatever you want to use to define posting on the forum about this.

[swake]

I suppose you are right.  Nothing to see here.  

Calm down, we have tested the Trident II successfully 143 times and as recently last October. It just doesn't make the news. Quit being so dramatic.

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2012/october/1031-ss-trident.html

Now the Trident II D5 is a truly scary weapon. Each missile has 5-8 independently targetable half megaton warheads. 24 Trident II D5 missiles are on each one of our 14 nuclear armed Ohio class subs. The subs don't even have to surface to fire. You know we have one or two of those in the Black Sea right now. Putin knows that too, though he doesn't know exactly where. Putin wants to rebuild the Russian (Soviet) empire, not burn it down.

[dbacksfan 2.0]

Wonder if Turkey wants the old Jupiter Missiles back that we had there in the early 60's.

Speaking of US ships, are the ones we sent to the Black Sea in case we needed to evacuate US citizens from the Olympics still in the area? The Black Sea is setting up to be a knife fight in a phone booth with all of the Ukraine and Russian ships headed there.

[guido911]

Wonder why we've heard nothing from Ron Paul or his progeny? Or Ted Cruz or the rest of our high profile Teapartiers. Ms.Palin? Can you see any contrails dear?

Are you serious? Palin has been all over this. Part of her "idiot" rap was her comment about Russia and the Ukraine from 2008--which turned out to be TRUE.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2014/03/03/sarah-palin-was-right-about-ukraine/

Then there's this:

"People are looking at Putin as one who wrestles bears and drills for oil. They look at our president as one who wears mom jeans," Palin said "Anyone who carries the commonsense gene would know that Putin doesn't change his stripes," she said. "He wants to exert huge power and dominance, so he has to get to those border areas and he has to capture them."

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/palin-obama-wears-mom-jeans

Who knew that CF and swake would be outed as closeted Palin-ites over this event, and I at this point really couldn't care. But I will enjoy watching her and and Romney gloat over their accuracy.