2016 Presidential Campaign

[Townsend]

So on the GOP side is it Trump v Cruz?

[Ed W]

From AOL (who knew AOL was still around?):

Texas lawyer sues over Ted Cruz eligibility to be president:

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/01/15/texas-lawyer-sues-cruz-to-challenge-eligibility/21297994/

[Townsend]

Is this thread slow this year because the outcome is so apparent?

[swake]

I'll take a shot at it:

The two latest polls in Nevada average out to +2 for Cruz over Rubio but that poll was before Rubio's strong showing in South Carolina and includes Bush. Even if Bush supporters split evenly between Kasich and Rubio, and I expect them to break strongly toward Rubio, I expect Rubio to take second easily. I see something like a Trump 43, Rubio 24, Cruz 20, Kasich 8 and Carson 5 outcome which would hurt Cruz greatly going forward.

Kasich ending under 10%, which I think is likely, probably ends his campaign and basically all his votes will go to Rubio, I'm sure he will endorse Rubio.

Who knows what Carson will do, it's looking more and more like his campaign is of the "for profit" variety instead of a real campaign, so look for his support to continue to fall away. He'll quit when the money dries up. His supporters at this point are of the dimwit category so they probably become Trumpers.

Super Tuesday is probably the end of Cruz. Trump is winning in the polls in 7 or 8 of the 9 states and with Rubio combining the party line Republican voters it looks like Cruz can do no better than third. Then comes the big question, do Cruz supporters go to Trump or Rubio? The party is holding out all hope it's to Rubio, but I think they are going to split pretty evenly and that means Trump walks away easily to the nomination winning most of the rest of the states something like 60-40 over Rubio.

Sanders is going to get killed in South Carolina and is likely gone after Super Tuesday. He's up but only within the polling error in Massachusetts and up big in irrelevant VT. Clinton is up in all seven other states, five of them by 20+ points. And these polls were before Sanders lost in Nevada.

[Townsend]

Cruz just fired Rick Tyler

[Conan71]

Cruz just fired Rick Tyler

Any relation?

[swake]

I'll take a shot at it:

The two latest polls in Nevada average out to +2 for Cruz over Rubio but that poll was before Rubio's strong showing in South Carolina and includes Bush. Even if Bush supporters split evenly between Kasich and Rubio, and I expect them to break strongly toward Rubio, I expect Rubio to take second easily. I see something like a Trump 43, Rubio 24, Cruz 20, Kasich 8 and Carson 5 outcome which would hurt Cruz greatly going forward.

Kasich ending under 10%, which I think is likely, probably ends his campaign and basically all his votes will go to Rubio, I'm sure he will endorse Rubio.

Who knows what Carson will do, it's looking more and more like his campaign is of the "for profit" variety instead of a real campaign, so look for his support to continue to fall away. He'll quit when the money dries up. His supporters at this point are of the dimwit category so they probably become Trumpers.

Super Tuesday is probably the end of Cruz. Trump is winning in the polls in 7 or 8 of the 9 states and with Rubio combining the party line Republican voters it looks like Cruz can do no better than third. Then comes the big question, do Cruz supporters go to Trump or Rubio? The party is holding out all hope it's to Rubio, but I think they are going to split pretty evenly and that means Trump walks away easily to the nomination winning most of the rest of the states something like 60-40 over Rubio.

Sanders is going to get killed in South Carolina and is likely gone after Super Tuesday. He's up but only within the polling error in Massachusetts and up big in irrelevant VT. Clinton is up in all seven other states, five of them by 20+ points. And these polls were before Sanders lost in Nevada.

All the lemmings are jumping on the Trump express train to the bottom. The lack of morals of the average American voter is stunning. We really are a bunch of racist, bigoted idiots. 

So I predicted Trump 43, Rubio 24, Cruz 20, Kasich 8 and Carson 5 and it actually was even better than that for Trump. The real results are Trump 46!, Rubio 24%, Cruz 21%, Carson 5% and Kasich 4%. My biggest miss was thinking that Trump couldn't come that close to 50% with Cruz and Carson still in the race and then that Kasich would get some of Bush's supporters.

Kasich should drop out today. I also read that Carson has under $4 million in funds left, he may well drop out this week too.

[heironymouspasparagus]

All the lemmings are jumping on the Trump express train to the bottom. The lack of morals of the average American voter is stunning. We really are a bunch of racist, bigoted idiots. 

Welcome to Oklahoma!!

Er, uh...wait... Welcome to the United States!!

[AquaMan]

Funny state of affairs. Tragic but entertaining.

Do any of these stalwart republican senators who oppose Obama, a former constitutional law professor, appointing the next SC justice realize that Trump may get the honor? Or, horrors...Clinton, Sanders or Cruz?

[Conan71]

All the lemmings are jumping on the Trump express train to the bottom. The lack of morals of the average American voter is stunning. We really are a bunch of racist, bigoted idiots.  

Come on swake, everyone who doesn't comport with the liberal world view isn't necessarily lacking in morals or a racist.  How do you explain Trump having really good support in the Latino community when his two closest challengers are both of Latino heritage?

Look at the demographic lines Trump is crossing:  He's not just appealing to dumb, southern Mex'cin & Mooslim-hatin' rednecks.  He trounced Cruz and Rubio with Latinos in Nevada- those who would allegedly be most disenfranchised by him.  They apparently don't see him as racist.  Trump's support seems to be more about his un-polished, un-apologetic, and  politically-incorrect manner of speech.  His appeal reaches people of all income and education levels.  He also seems to have good favor with independents and some Democrats especially blue collar Democrats with union ties- go figure.

Trump wins Hispanics: Nevada presented Trump's most formidable finish so far. He not only won both moderates and conservatives, he also won among voters whose top issues were the economy (47 percent), terrorism (37 percent) and government spending (36 percent). But perhaps the most shocking demographic victory of The Donald was his solid showing with Republican Latino voters. Trump had long predicted that he would win the Latino vote, despite months of widespread criticism over his extreme positions on combating illegal immigration.

The front-runner has proposed building a wall along the Southwest border of the U.S. (financed by Mexico) to keep immigrants out and has called for a "deportation force" to round up the 11 million plus undocumented people current in the country and deport them. He has also been condemned from claiming that Mexicans who cross the border are often "killers" and "rapists." Nevertheless, Trump won 46 percent of the Latino GOP caucusgoers, although they only made up 9 percent of the total vote.

(sorry forgot to add link, it's from MSNBC)

I believe people are tired of being fed pablum from politicians who claim they will fix Washington when all they do in reality is continue to plunder the system and government becomes more broken and more in debt than it was four or eight years ago.  He's tapping into the frustration people feel about our immigration issues, terrorism threats, tepid and or incompetent foreign policy, and the national debt and legacy deficits from the current administration we have yet to pay for.  For the most part, he's also managed to stay out of the far right litmus test social issues which have defined the GOP for the last 40 years like abortion and gay marriage and he doesn't invoke Jesus in every third sentence.

Cruz may come off as an outsider but he's been groomed carefully by Tea Party types.  Rubio has been carefully groomed by the establishment even though Bush was ostensibly their guy this time around.  Neither one of them comes off as genuine.  They are someone else's creation and they spout platitudes they may or may not believe in.

Trump is probably spouting platitudes he doesn't believe in, but somehow, he's making voters and potential voters believe he's more sincere than other candidates.

Here's why I don't like Trump and think he could be a train wreck for the country:

-Can you imagine his idea of foreign policy being: "F@ck you Putin!" and slamming down the phone?

-He does not seem well-versed on any issue when asked questions a presidential candidate should have innate knowledge of. (This lack of rehearsed answers may explain his popularity with people.)

-I'm not certain Trump understands anything about macro economics since he's been so focused on amassing personal wealth, exploiting bankruptcy law, and practicing tax avoidance his entire adult life.  Then again, maybe an outsider's approach to taxation and government spending might be a good thing.

-I have no idea who his associates are who would actually be crafting domestic and foreign policy as well as economic policy.  Maybe it's the whole Celebrity Apprentice thing and picturing Gary Busey ending up being the cabinet chair for education that keeps me awake at night.  

It's disappointing the Democrats punted this time around.  Neither of their leading candidates can beat Trump's appeal in a general election.  They can pull out the stops assassinating Trump's character and his popularity will keep growing.  Hell, every time Trump makes another gaffe, his popularity grows. That's been proven time and again during the lead up to the GOP primary season.

Here's the bigger issue:  Hillary is a very unlikable and dishonest individual.  Bernie's socialist world view will only resonate with a small percentage of people who really believe he could provide all the free things he's claiming.

If Bernie won the nomination it would be a Trump landslide.  If Hillary can make it to the November '16 vote without an indictment, it might be closer, but I really don't see her beating Trump.  For one thing, she does not have the charm her husband does and she's another insider.  I think most Americans have Bush/Clinton fatigue.  Entirely another issue is I don't think the majority of Americans are ready in their psyche to trust a female as POTUS.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Funny state of affairs. Tragic but entertaining.

Do any of these stalwart republican senators who oppose Obama, a former constitutional law professor, appointing the next SC justice realize that Trump may get the honor? Or, horrors...Clinton, Sanders or Cruz?

Nope.  They are all too stupid to see more than about 30 minutes ahead....

[AquaMan]

Las Vegas has a lot of Latinos working in Trump operations. Turnout was very small. Just sayin'.

Listen, Conan, you make a good argument for just passing on this election. Low turnout at the blue collar level is consistent. Anger at government is consistent because they mostly don't understand it. They don't even register. Turnout and involvement among minorities is steadily increasing. Both those work against Trump.

Regardless of who wins, the real battle for change is not in the White House. Its replacing a "just say no" Congress. None of these candidates has the power to sway Congress that an LBJ, Bush, or Roosevelt had. Sanders scares them, Clinton pisses them off and Trump will be a fountain boat with no rudder. Rubio is totally manageable.

Just like Oklahoma, replacing Failin' is not the solution. Its replacing religious idealogues posing as servants of the public.

[Conan71]

Listen, Conan, you make a good argument for just passing on this election.

I hope not.  I just wish the options we are looking at weren't such a bag of sh!t.

/edit: Make that a flaming bag of sh!t.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Listen, Conan, you make a good argument for just passing on this election. Low turnout at the blue collar level is consistent. Anger at government is consistent because they mostly don't understand it. They don't even register. Turnout and involvement among minorities is steadily increasing. Both those work against Trump.

NO!!  There is never a good reason to pass on an election!!

[AquaMan]

To be more accurate, I was referring to the disillusionment of Trump supporters. I had one this morning assure me he was tired of the "politics" in government and was going to vote for Trump even though he didn't think he could get anything done. Weird enough but I remember our last conversation when he told me he hadn't voted for years.

I'll vote, though in OK that's pretty much an exercise in futility.