2016 Presidential Campaign

[TeeDub]

I am tired of the politics in government too.

I also wish that my choice for president was something other than the "least worst."

Oh well.

[swake]

Trump did win the Latino vote in the Republican Caucus, but Latinos were only 8% of Republican voters in a state that is 28% Latino. What that vote shows more than Trump's popularity with Latinos is that Latinos are not Republicans.

Exit polling on race from South Carolina:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-supporters-for-intolerance.html?_r=0

Data from Public Policy Polling show that a third of Mr. Trump's backers in South Carolina support barring gays and lesbians from entering the country.

YouGov data reveal that a third of Mr. Trump's (and Mr. Cruz's) backers believe that Japanese internment during World War II was a good idea

According to P.P.P., 70 percent of Mr. Trump's voters in South Carolina wish the Confederate battle flag were still flying on their statehouse grounds.

38 percent of them wish the South had won the Civil War.

Nearly 20 percent of Mr. Trump's voters disagreed with the freeing of slaves in Southern states after the Civil War

The P.P.P. poll asked voters if they thought whites were a superior race. Most Republican primary voters in South Carolina — 78 percent — disagreed with this idea (10 percent agreed and 11 percent weren't sure). But among Mr. Trump's supporters, only 69 percent disagreed.

The KKK supporting Trump at a Nevada high school:


This entrance polling from Nevada shows that the less education a voter had the more likely it was they voted for Trump. And his voters are overwhelmingly older, white and angry too. And their number one issue is immigration.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NV


The average Trump voter is an angry, older white person with little education with some pretty racist views whose number one issue is kicking out all immigrants.

They are who they are.

The Party of Lincoln is now the Party of Trump. Sad doesn't begin to describe it.

[Conan71]

Trump did win the Latino vote in the Republican Caucus, but Latinos were only 8% of Republican voters in a state that is 28% Latino. What that vote shows more than Trump's popularity with Latinos is that Latinos are not Republicans.

The most astounding aspect of this though is that Latinos were voting for someone with the last name of "Trump" rather than the tribal identity of voting for a "Cruz" or "Rubio".

Personally, I don't put much stock in polling questions which would be considered inflammatory and trying to intentionally eke out a bias like: "Do you think gays and lesbians should be barred from entering the country?" or asking if the white race is superior or if the Confederate battle flag should still fly over the statehouse.  That's nothing more than race baiting and hardly appropriate as exit or entrance polling questions.  The poll could just as easily have been carried out by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

According to your own article, PPP is seen as being too closely aligned with the Democratic party to be able to produce anything but biased results, and that is the Democratic meme:  Anyone not aligned with the liberal wing of the Democrat Party is a racist hater.

[heironymouspasparagus]

To be more accurate, I was referring to the disillusionment of Trump supporters. I had one this morning assure me he was tired of the "politics" in government and was going to vote for Trump even though he didn't think he could get anything done. Weird enough but I remember our last conversation when he told me he hadn't voted for years.

I'll vote, though in OK that's pretty much an exercise in futility.

Had discussion yesterday with one at work.  Told him I am about 70% ready to vote for Trump now - for a much different reason than he is!   I say bring it on - let's get down and dirty with this sh$t and let the citizens of this country see first hand, up front and personal, exactly where the Repubs have had us pointed for so many years.  Drive this hawg into the ground so we can start the rebuilding process sooner rather than letting the slow decay destroy even more.

[Townsend]

Trump, a showman. 

Trump's supplied so many soundbites for his opposition, it's almost impossible for someone not to be rallied against him...as long as that person is educated enough to understand what Trump's followers are siding with.

Would someone really want to be clumped into a group of misogynistic, racist, hateful folks if that someone took a moment to understand the consequences?

In Oklahoma, as a people, we don't take time to understand consequences.  The folks with deep pockets outside Oklahoma understand that international business  will be tougher under a Trump presidency.  The money raised will go to his opponent.

Trump will not be POTUS

[Conan71]

Trump, a showman.  

Trump's supplied so many soundbites for his opposition, it's almost impossible for someone not to be rallied against him...as long as that person is educated enough to understand what Trump's followers are siding with.

Would someone really want to be clumped into a group of misogynistic, racist, hateful folks if that someone took a moment to understand the consequences?

In Oklahoma, as a people, we don't take time to understand consequences.  The folks with deep pockets outside Oklahoma understand that international business  will be tougher under a Trump presidency.  The money raised will go to his opponent.

Trump will not be POTUS

The flaw in your logic is that every time it was assumed Trump had just shot himself in foot and was done, his popularity surged 5%.

Any time the opposition tries to use Trump's words against him, his popularity surges even more.

The more the media tries to vet him as a complete douchebag, the more popular he becomes.

It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.  Trump is a public relations dumpster fire but he just keeps on going like the Energizer Bunny.

You could give Hillary Clinton $100 billion and she still will not be elected.  She's an awful candidate and no one seems capable of refuting it.  Trump is an awful candidate as well but he seems to thrive on that notoriety, and notoriety, good or bad is what the Trump brand has relied on for the last 30 years.

[Townsend]

The flaw in your logic is that every time it was assumed Trump had just shot himself in foot and was done, his popularity surged 5%.

Any time the opposition tries to use Trump's words against him, his popularity surges even more.

The more the media tries to vet him as a complete douchebag, the more popular he becomes.

It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.  Trump is a public relations dumpster fire but he just keeps on going like the Energizer Bunny.

You could give Hillary Clinton $100 billion and she still will not be elected.  She's an awful candidate and no one seems capable of refuting it.  Trump is an awful candidate as well but he seems to thrive on that notoriety, and notoriety, good or bad is what the Trump brand has relied on for the last 30 years.

His popularity with whom?  Many of the people he's popular with have no idea how to find their polling places.

He's popular because people recognize him from his television shows. 

If you asked one of his crowd what his stance is on anything political, they will look at you and say "Mexican wall" or "No Muslims allowed."

Do you really think his presidency will be allowed to happen?  Your vote, my vote...they won't matter.  The international community and the firms who do business with the international community will take over the show and someone else will be in the oval.

[Conan71]

His popularity with whom?  Many of the people he's popular with have no idea how to find their polling places.

He's popular because people recognize him from his television shows.  

If you asked one of his crowd what his stance is on anything political, they will look at you and say "Mexican wall" or "No Muslims allowed."

Do you really think his presidency will be allowed to happen?  Your vote, my vote...they won't matter.  The international community and the firms who do business with the international community will take over the show and someone else will be in the oval.

They've been turning out at the primaries and caucuses so far.  Just wait until Super Tuesday.

Rubio and Cruz who both seem to be quite a bit more reasonable choices are getting their asses handed to them.

The international community doesn't have a vote.

The only thing which could change this course is if Bloomberg jumps in but I don't see the day an IND can win the White House.  He might be able to be the "Perot factor" and suck enough votes away from Trump so that Hilarity can win.

I sense a bet over Marshall's beer coming on here.

[Townsend]

The international community doesn't have a vote.


I sense a bet over Marshall's beer coming on here.

To your first statement quoted above...Motherscratcher, please.

To the second, case of Marshalls between you and me.  You have Trump, I have Clinton.  If we are both wrong, we meet out and buy each other Marshalls until the wives say "no mas."

[Conan71]

To your first statement quoted above...Motherscratcher, please.

To the second, case of Marshalls between you and me.  You have Trump, I have Clinton.  If we are both wrong, we meet out and buy each other Marshalls until the wives say "no mas."

Deal.

[swake]

They've been turning out at the primaries and caucuses so far.  Just wait until Super Tuesday.

Rubio and Cruz who both seem to be quite a bit more reasonable choices are getting their asses handed to them.

The international community doesn't have a vote.

The only thing which could change this course is if Bloomberg jumps in but I don't see the day an IND can win the White House.  He might be able to be the "Perot factor" and suck enough votes away from Trump so that Hilarity can win.

I sense a bet over Marshall's beer coming on here.

On which planet is Cruz reasonable? He's the guy that shut down the government and got our credit rating reduced over the debt ceiling. He's completely hated by his peers in the Senate. He also advocates INS teams rounding up and kicking out all illegal immigrants and carpet bombing Muslims.

Rubio and Kasich are reasonable. I may not agree with them much, but you can have an honest debate and honest disagreement on philosophy with them. I could be persuaded to vote for them, especially Kasich, over Sanders. If the election is Sanders v Trump it's hello President Bloomberg.

Cruz is a weasel and radical willing to do or say anything to get ahead. And Trump is Trump. I think Hillary beats either one of them easily. Trump is very, very unpopular with Independents and Democrats. Cruz is just plain unlikable.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

I think Rubio probably beats Hillary and certainly beats Sanders, but his window is closing. 46% in Nevada is a big number because when Cruz drops most of his people probably go to Trump. I don't think Rubio can win, but he's the only shot the Republicans have in stopping Trump now.

[carltonplace]

Deal.

ooh, I'm finally interested in this presidential circus!
What Trump supporters don't know is that he really isn't that different from Hillary. They both have Wall Street interests, they both are moderately socially liberal.
Trump is playing a role...his supporters might as well be voting for the "conservative" Colbert character.

Legacy party members want Hillary or Rubio (bye Jeb)
The disenfranchised that blame government for their problems are backing Trump or Sanders. 

[Townsend]

ooh, I'm finally interested in this presidential circus!
 

Me too...squee

[Conan71]

On which planet is Cruz reasonable? He's the guy that shut down the government and got our credit rating reduced over the debt ceiling. He's completely hated by his peers in the Senate. He also advocates INS teams rounding up and kicking out all illegal immigrants and carpet bombing Muslims.

Rubio and Kasich are reasonable. I may not agree with them much, but you can have an honest debate and honest disagreement on philosophy with them. I could be persuaded to vote for them, especially Kasich, over Sanders. If the election is Sanders v Trump it's hello President Bloomberg.

Cruz is a weasel and radical willing to do or say anything to get ahead. And Trump is Trump. I think Hillary beats either one of them easily. Trump is very, very unpopular with Independents and Democrats. Cruz is just plain unlikable.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

I think Rubio probably beats Hillary and certainly beats Sanders, but his window is closing. 46% in Nevada is a big number because when Cruz drops most of his people probably go to Trump. I don't think Rubio can win, but he's the only shot the Republicans have in stopping Trump now.

When I was speaking of Cruz being a "reasonable choice" that's to the Tea Party faction he's a reasonable choice.  To the GOP establishment types, Rubio is the "reasonable choice."

I respect Nate Silver, he's got an outstanding record with his prognostications.  Let's see what happens when the GOP clown car finally is down to one occupant.  Do you see any scenario where Bernie could get nominated if Hilarity isn't indicted first (yes, I know, pissing in the wind)?  I think there are too many people still of the impression that Trump won't be the GOP nominee.  Let's see how electable he looks when all other possibilities from the GOP side have been quashed.  That's pretty much what Silver's article is saying in the first place.

[swake]

When I was speaking of Cruz being a "reasonable choice" that's to the Tea Party faction he's a reasonable choice.  To the GOP establishment types, Rubio is the "reasonable choice."

I respect Nate Silver, he's got an outstanding record with his prognostications.  Let's see what happens when the GOP clown car finally is down to one occupant.  Do you see any scenario where Bernie could get nominated if Hilarity isn't indicted first (yes, I know, pissing in the wind)?  I think there are too many people still of the impression that Trump won't be the GOP nominee.  Let's see how electable he looks when all other possibilities from the GOP side have been quashed.  That's pretty much what Silver's article is saying in the first place.

Nope, Sanders has little to no chance. He's going to lose South Carolina by 20+ points and then Super Tuesday looks to be a complete wipeout for him and he's already way behind with Super Delegates before losing a whole bunch of states by huge margins.

I got this from RealClearPolitics:

Super Tuesday State, if the polls are current and how many polls are current:

National DEM – current poll x6 Clinton +6
Georgia  - current x3 Clinton +38
Texas  - current x3 Clinton +16
Minnesota – semi-current Clinton +34
Oklahoma – current x2 Clinton +9
Alabama – current Clinton +28
Arkansas current x2 Clinton +28
Tennessee  - current Clinton +26
Colorado – no current poll
Vermont – current x2 Sanders +76
Massachusetts – current x2 Sanders +3

Trump looks unbeatable too, though a little less so:
National GOP – current poll x5 Trump +13
Georgia  - current x2 Trump +11
Texas  - current x2 Cruz +4
Massachusetts – current Trump +34
Minnesota – semi-current Rubio +2
Oklahoma – current Trump +8
Alabama – no current poll
Arkansas – semi-current Cruz +4
Tennessee  - no current poll
Colorado – no current poll
Virginia – current Trump +6
Alaska – semi-current Trump +4
Vermont – current Trump +15