Downtown Development Overview

[TheArtist]

My guess is that we will probably see this current wave of development complete, before another batch starts.  Once the WPX is done and the OK POP gets in and these things actually create a section of downtown that is truly more vibrant and attractive... then this will give others more confidence that their plans can work as well.  That supposing the next recession doesn't hit before that next batch gets underway which is entirely possible.

Right now downtown seems to have reached a plateau of sorts.  This next wave completing will amp up the energy a bit.

I was talking with some about Tulsa's population declining and they mentioned that there are plenty of examples of cities whose cores have continued to infill and grow stronger while the periphery stagnated or went into decline.  The thing is to do this gracefully such that the whole area doesn't get a bad rap with parts of the city going into decline, struggling to pay for sprawling infrastructure, city finances stressed, etc. It may be that Tulsa starts to "Return to Nature" parts of the city and we shrink inwards, but we can still create a really nice core city that is vibrant, beautiful, and strong, and that will eventually begin to grow the whole city again.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

My guess is that we will probably see this current wave of development complete, before another batch starts.  Once the WPX is done and the OK POP gets in and these things actually create a section of downtown that is truly more vibrant and attractive... then this will give others more confidence that their plans can work as well.  That supposing the next recession doesn't hit before that next batch gets underway which is entirely possible.

Right now downtown seems to have reached a plateau of sorts.  This next wave completing will amp up the energy a bit.

I was talking with some about Tulsa's population declining and they mentioned that there are plenty of examples of cities whose cores have continued to infill and grow stronger while the periphery stagnated or went into decline.  The thing is to do this gracefully such that the whole area doesn't get a bad rap with parts of the city going into decline, struggling to pay for sprawling infrastructure, city finances stressed, etc. It may be that Tulsa starts to "Return to Nature" parts of the city and we shrink inwards, but we can still create a really nice core city that is vibrant, beautiful, and strong, and that will eventually begin to grow the whole city again.

That would be great and perhaps the best option for the city long term (not to mention better for the environment, traffic, infrastructure, etc), but Tulsa area citizens have voted with their money that infinite sprawl is their prefered option. Let's hope that changes in the future.

It would be far better to densely infill Tulsa, but there is very little economic incentive to build up because real estate is so cheap just 10-15 minutes away.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

Santa Fe Square is backed by local groups that have a vested interest in making sure it is a quality development.  I have hopes it will be great, even if it does take awhile to all come together.

Have you seen the latest renderings of it? It's already vastly inferior to the original proposed design (which was beautiful, very high density architecture).

Proposed vs latest here: http://www.tulsanow.org/forum/index.php?topic=21117.165

[Oil Capital]

Santa Fe Square is backed by local groups that have a vested interest in making sure it is a quality development.  I have hopes it will be great, even if it does take awhile to all come together.

Yes, but couldn't the same have been said about One Place and its backers?

[DTowner]

It is foolish to believe a project will look anything like the renderings unless the project is ready to break ground when they are released.  Otherwise, it is little more than a pictorial representation of the developer's hopes and dreams.  Then bankers and reality show up....

[Urban Enthusiast]

I took this picture of the Davenport Lofts yesterday.  I believe it has topped out.

[Tulsan]

I'm guessing the next big disappointment will be Santa Fe Square and not because it ends up looking anywhere near as bad as Cimarex, but because it is just far too large for what DT can sustain at this point and the core "wow" parts of it will likely be pushed back 5+ years and/or pared down like they already started doing

Santa Fe was first announced publicly in early 2015. 5 years later, they have a couple of the smaller buildings up but looks like none of the big buildings are in process. It looks like there's just not demand for that much volume of buildings downtown (especially not multiple city blocks of 7-story buildings like the original renderings). So many companies with big work forces want to build their own place far away from downtown (like Unit Petroleum in Tulsa Hills). It saves them a lot in rent and real estate can be had cheaply and built with fewer restrictions. Then ample parking and they get to be the lords of their own place. It takes a lot to lure in big companies to move to a big pricey place like Santa Fe and mostly these new places seem to be poaching tenants from other downtown buildings rather than bringing in new businesses to DT.

The project was conceived just before the 2014 crash in oil prices. I believe Laredo was an original intended tenant but don't quote me. Someone here may know better. After the crash they presumably weren't going to be able to get rents - and the new money E&P companies suddenly weren't flush - so there was a redesign to make the project cheaper and rents lower. Rumor is that Semgroup was about to commit to moving downtown as an anchor tenant when Energy Transfer out of Dallas made an offer they couldn't refuse. Now there's no more Semgroup.

So yeah - with the shale bust and oil glut/coronavirus, the likely scenario is to wait 3-5 more years until oil prices finally recover and whatever E&Ps are left standing start to grow again. And this assumes that BOK hasn't announced their long-rumored HQ across from AHHA, which would combine with WPX moving out of Williams to cause a glut of class A space and Williams to lower rents to fill their tower  

[SXSW]

Awesome would love to see more of these midrises sprout up downtown.

[Rattle Trap]

And this assumes that BOK hasn't announced their long-rumored HQ across from AHHA, which would combine with WPX moving out of Williams to cause a glut of class A space and Williams to lower rents to fill their tower  

What rumors are you referring to? I wasn't aware that BOK was considering a new HQ

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

It is foolish to believe a project will look anything like the renderings unless the project is ready to break ground when they are released.  Otherwise, it is little more than a pictorial representation of the developer's hopes and dreams.  Then bankers and reality show up....

It completely depends on the project and context. How do you explain that so many of the projects that have been completed look very similar to the rendering:
https://www.tulsaworld.com/business/downtown-tulsa-development-projects-coming-soon-or-recently-completed/collection_2e50248b-80c7-57a5-aa0d-5668c2f1d07b.html (almost everything completed on this list of 59 developments looks like the rendering, and many were publicized quite a long time before breaking ground, but I guess you'd be "foolish" to expect any others to look like the renderings.)

Some companies know how to budget and follow through. Cimarex and Santa Fe Square publicized ambitious plans that might've helped them get investors, then they cut the plan so far down, it is not even close to the original concept. Santa Fe Square will still probably be pretty nice and maybe scaled to what is needed, but Cimarex was a pretty big failure for mixed use development and a waste of opportunity.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

I took this picture of the Davenport Lofts yesterday.  I believe it has topped out.

What a monumental building for the area! I am excited but a bit nervous for them. I'm glad someone is so ambitious, but hope they can find 20+ to buy in to their vision and make it a success. I've been skeptical, but hope it works out. The area needs more residents and DT Tulsa could use some more visionary pioneers like the ones who made downtown boom in the first place.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

The project was conceived just before the 2014 crash in oil prices. I believe Laredo was an original intended tenant but don't quote me. Someone here may know better. After the crash they presumably weren't going to be able to get rents - and the new money E&P companies suddenly weren't flush - so there was a redesign to make the project cheaper and rents lower. Rumor is that Semgroup was about to commit to moving downtown as an anchor tenant when Energy Transfer out of Dallas made an offer they couldn't refuse. Now there's no more Semgroup.

So yeah - with the shale bust and oil glut/coronavirus, the likely scenario is to wait 3-5 more years until oil prices finally recover and whatever E&Ps are left standing start to grow again. And this assumes that BOK hasn't announced their long-rumored HQ across from AHHA, which would combine with WPX moving out of Williams to cause a glut of class A space and Williams to lower rents to fill their tower  

That makes sense, but the economic boom from 2014-2019 more than made up for the O&G downturn and O&G has been close to business as usual for the last couple years. O&G is only ~9% of Tulsa's economy so they would just need to get tenants from the vast array of other sectors and focus on those which are growing. Maybe the issue is more bigger companies relocating/consolidating.

[Tulsan]

What rumors are you referring to? I wasn't aware that BOK was considering a new HQ

Its been going around for most of the last 8-10 years that BOK has been looking at building its own HQ. At one point a concept was online but I can't find it now. Most recently, as of late 2018 they 100% had architecture plans on the drawing board for the parking lot at the southwest corner of Archer and Cincinnati. This was of course put on hold, but I don't know why. Probably ongoing concern about exposure to the energy sector since they were a leading lender before the bust. Could also be that Williams hasn't grown as much as expected and gave them better lease terms to convince them to stay—but that's pure speculation.

[SXSW]

So yeah - with the shale bust and oil glut/coronavirus, the likely scenario is to wait 3-5 more years until oil prices finally recover and whatever E&Ps are left standing start to grow again. And this assumes that BOK hasn't announced their long-rumored HQ across from AHHA, which would combine with WPX moving out of Williams to cause a glut of class A space and Williams to lower rents to fill their tower  

The shale bust is about to get much worse.  We're staring at sub-$40/barrel oil that is in a free fall.  Many of the smaller O&G companies won't make it or will get bought out by bigger companies.  I expect a lot of the planned development downtown gets shelved and the city goes into recession fairly quickly.

[In_Tulsa]

The shale bust is about to get much worse.  We're staring at sub-$40/barrel oil that is in a free fall.  Many of the smaller O&G companies won't make it or will get bought out by bigger companies.  I expect a lot of the planned development downtown gets shelved and the city goes into recession fairly quickly.

Thanks for the Rosie outlook!