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What about Obama?

Started by swake, June 26, 2015, 02:28:00 PM

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cannon_fodder

Quote from: Conan71 on July 13, 2015, 10:59:34 AM
What do you view as key points or initiatives the executive or legislative branches could address to expand the middle class and shrink the lower class?

All long term things, all things we did in the 1950s. Improve funding for infrastructure, research, and education to start with.  For education, I don't just mean college, I mean all SKILLS that lead to promising and needed careers. An electrician, welder, mechanic, carpenter, or machine operator can make a fine living. An unskilled hammer man or punch press button pusher struggles. This isn't a popular notion because it isn't a quick fix, no progress will be made in one term.

Don't shift additional tax burden onto the middle class. Sales taxes punish those who spend most of their money. The bottom 50% of Americans spend most, if not all of their earnings just to keep afloat - their effective tax rate therefore suffers. Many tax exemptions do little for the economy (mortgage deduction set up to encourage the purchase of the largest McMansions you can afford, corporate welfare, etc.). Many investment tax schemes make little sense; the secondary stock market does almost nothing for the actual economy - yet a low capital gains tax indicates speculating on the secondary market is more important to the economy than actually working (I'm not against the stock market in any way).  A tax overhaul is needed, and all tax policy should be set with sunset provisions.

For example: a family with 2.58 kids making $50k a year lives a decent life, but doesn't exactly have extra money sloshing around. What they have, they are plowing immediately back into the economy and/or trying to scrap together a rainy day fund. Its unpopular, but those that make more can afford to pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes. The highest income earners pay 18% effective tax rate (at all levels). The US National Average is 26% (which is among the lowest in the developed world, I do't think there is a country with a higher standard of living and a lower tax rate). Conservatives hate this idea because it means people need to pay more in taxes. Liberals hate this idea because it means people other than "1%ers" are in that group (professors, attorneys, doctors, well paid government bureaucrats).

Yes, cutting taxes would be best. But we aren't going to do that: the military is a sacred conservative cow, even though we spend as much as China, Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Iran combined times 3, it isn't going to be significantly cut. Social Security and Medicare won't be cut by anyone. Liberals won't let medicaid be cut. Clearly we won't stop paying interest. And everything else is chicken feed (20% combined).  I'm all for reallocating money, but "cutting" our way of a hole hasn't ever worked.

Income disparity isn't a talking point. It is an existential threat to democracy. 10% of wage earners make 50% of the income. In 1974, the top 0.1% of families controlled 7% of the wealth in the United States. Today they control 22% of all wealth in the country. The bottom 90% of families control 20% of all wealth (less than the top 0.1% combined). Poor people depend on the government more than middle class people, that starts a bad spiral. Poor people consume less: they buy less manufactured goods, they start fewer businesses, they retain fewer attorneys, etc. etc. etc. Wealth concentration is a cancer that leads to great episodes of "lifestyles of the rich and famous" but ends badly for societies.

But the solution isn't simple, it isn't quick, and it sure as hell isn't taking money directly from affluent people and transferring it to poor people (that's the other extreme, it also ends badly for society). The solution is funding programs that enable people to achieve on their own. We did it in the 1950s and resulted in broad based prosperity that began declining in the 1980s. The realistic solutions are unpopular for both sides - so we will likely just keep whining about it.

Quoteyou can take away incentives to non-productive lifestyle: shorten UE benefit periods, tighten up what qualifies for "disability", tighter restrictions on welfare, etc.  and plough those into more and better advanced educational benefits (i.e. cheap or free college/tech tuition or grants).

Largely agree with you. Bring UE benefits back to their recessionary levels - and set up a phase out system instead of a cut-off system (if you work, you get less of your benefits... but you are better off with some benefits and working. Otherwise you set up a perverse situation where you are working for an extra 25 cents an hour over your benefit rate. Human nature often says that's not worth it).

"Welfare" is a bit of a misnomer, most "welfare" spending is on medicaid for disabled people, elderly (but no Medicare eligible), and children of lower income people. The next largest chunk is in WIC (great program) and "food stamps" (not called that anymore) - I would reform food stamps to be more like WIC - sorry, no redbull or doritos on government doll. Moving down we spend money on the earned income tax credit (great program from an economic perspective), child care credit and dependent credit (those mostly benefit wealthier people).  Overall, the package is fairly effective and has ~8% fraud rate (mostly in companies billing medicaid for services not rendered and for affluent people claiming benefits they are not eligible for). BUT - I would make the same change to "welfare" systems that I would make to UE benefits; put in a phase out so you are better off working. You are better off working and receiving partial benefits as opposed to replacing benefits with work. Then a person gets a raise, a promotion, and eventually gets weened off benefits.

I'm sure there are programs/areas that more money can be saved. But overall, the US "welfare" system is a fairly effective economic and social engine. It is an easy target and making it better would take actual work from politicians (drug test them all! Oh, wait, what? We caught less than 1% of recipients and spent way more than we saved?  Keep doing it!). Our main obsticle, on both sides, is an unwillingness to look at what actually works because of pure politics (its a handout to lazy scam artists! v. they all are "entitled" to it!).


QuoteHas free trade done much to benefit the American middle class?  It doesn't seem to have helped any from what I can see.

Yes. Economic theory says that each party is better off at the conclusion of a bargained for exchange. I could write a dissertation, but in short: American labor has become more and more efficient since entering WWII. We are no longer good at "unskilled" tasks (from an economic perspective, good essentially means cost effective). We are good at skilled tasks: advanced manufacturing, conceptualizing, design, engineering, marketing, logistics, finance. The iPhone is a great example - we thought of it, designed it, engineered it, figure out how to build it, did all the logistics to get parts from all over the world to a crap-hole in China, sell it, and reep the profits. China assembles it - the "value added" in China is a scant $8. The USA makes hundreds off of each iPhone. (there are entire scholarly articles written on the topic, as well as its perverse effect on the trade gap)

The high-pay low skill manufacturing jobs aren't ever coming back. The days where you can make $70k a year putting bolts into a frame on an assembly line died when you could lease a robot for $35k a year to do the same job.  But manufacturing that requires more precision or skill, non-repetitive tasks, or intellectual ability are in high demand.  There's a reason John Deere moved their foundry to, and then back from Mexico (quality). There is a reason the US can't find enough welders (many welding tasks are non-repetitive). There's a reason we need more engineers.

Asia has cheap labor to sell. We have things we want built with cheap labor. Asia has low-skill manufacturing goods they want to sell us. We have high-skill items and services we want to sell them. In theory, both sides win. That includes the American consumer. (I'm not making a personal argument for outsourcing, I'm making an economics argument for why free-trade benefits everyone)


Quote
I honestly see no way in which government can improve educational outcome as with every costly initiative. . . I am a firm believer that successful education starts in the home

Truth. Nothing is a substitute to a family and culture that values education. There is a reason that Asian have a stereotype as being smart, many Asian cultures value education.

But, there are proven methods that do result in better educational achievement. Smaller class sizes. Long school terms (less summer break). Better teaching methods (lecturing to a class is not an effective teaching method, it is just a method of passing on information for the student to later learn). Also, making the school a place kids want to go is conducive to learning: sports programs, music/art programs, better facilities. All of these things have been proven to increase learning, regardless of what's going on at home (the kid with supportive home life will almost always do better, but these things improve everyones achievement).

These things all cost money. This ties in directly with two of the three talking points above: improving the middle class and welfare. You want kids to not be criminals and to climb off the government doll? Educate them. Educate them to the best of our ability in spite of their home life. The alternative is cyclical poverty but-for a select few kids who can break the cycle. Statistically, that's very rare. So I'm not asking you to do this for the "child left behind," it can be pure selfishness. We are all better off if we break the cycle.


QuoteSome presidents have the luck. . . We are still 20-30 years from being able to fully digest how good or how poor this president has performed.

Again, very true. Historians can still debate if Lincoln was the great savior of the Union, or if he was a tyrant who set aside the Constitution to achieve his personal goals. Was Reagan a great hero reestablishing capitalism and squashing the communists, or a villain starting the decline of the middle class and bankrupting the country for future generations? We are entirely unable to view history accurately while in its midst, but future perceptions are often influenced by contemporary commentary.

QuoteI give this admin mostly failing marks in terms of racial relations/tensions.  I believe we are worse off than we were a decade ago along those terms.  

I didn't consider race relations. I'd say he has had minimal impact on race relations. Personally, I think race relations are about the same they were a decade ago, or two decades ago. The angst and disparity is much more visible recently, but I don't think that's a reflection of race relations deteriorating. I think it is merely a reflection of incidents taking places that shed light on the situation (more documentation of police situations, rebel flag debate, etc.).  Perhaps having a black guy in the White House was a catalyst for some of that, when the feeling of achievement for the entire community wore off, they found that nothing changed as they had hoped (being in a group that historically underachieves is one thing, having that pointed out to you and/or coming to that realization is another). 

I'm no expert on race relations, so I'm pretty well just making cap up on this one.
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I crush grooves.

Conan71

Quote from: cannon_fodder on July 14, 2015, 09:56:13 AM
Truth. Nothing is a substitute to a family and culture that values education. There is a reason that Asian have a stereotype as being smart, many Asian cultures value education.

But, there are proven methods that do result in better educational achievement. Smaller class sizes. Long school terms (less summer break). Better teaching methods (lecturing to a class is not an effective teaching method, it is just a method of passing on information for the student to later learn). Also, making the school a place kids want to go is conducive to learning: sports programs, music/art programs, better facilities. All of these things have been proven to increase learning, regardless of what's going on at home (the kid with supportive home life will almost always do better, but these things improve everyones achievement).

These things all cost money. This ties in directly with two of the three talking points above: improving the middle class and welfare. You want kids to not be criminals and to climb off the government doll? Educate them. Educate them to the best of our ability in spite of their home life. The alternative is cyclical poverty but-for a select few kids who can break the cycle. Statistically, that's very rare. So I'm not asking you to do this for the "child left behind," it can be pure selfishness. We are all better off if we break the cycle.

Great points all, thank you for expanding!

One thing which really would not involve huge costs is changing from a lecture style to an interactive approach.  I think we'd be amazed at the outcomes if public schools all utilized an approach similar to the Montessori method.  I'm not saying that's the "be-all end-all" in education, but there's good science to support kinesthetic or interactive learning.

I suffered in algebra, chemistry, and physics.  I've got some sort of learning disability that simply blurs the equations in the book or on the board.  When I was in the process of earning my pilot's license or seeing the effects of adjusting cross-weight or ride height on a race car- physics suddenly made total sense.  When I worked in the marketing side of the chemical industry, I no longer had to worry about which way the electrons were spinning- all I had to do was explain to the client or perspective client what the compounds would do.  I understand algebra better than ever now because I utilize it in the real world every day.  As a classroom theory for a 14, 15, & 16 year old (Yes, it took me three tries- actually 2 1/2 but story for another day) it was complete nonsense until I found a tutor who could interact with me and make it seem more applied than theoretical.

My daughters really thrived under Montessori.  They found public school largely uninspiring after Montessori, but they did manage to thrive, in large part, to the support they had at home as well as the inquisitive nature Montessori instilled in them. 
"It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first" -Ronald Reagan

heironymouspasparagus

Quote from: Conan71 on July 14, 2015, 02:00:27 PM
Great points all, thank you for expanding!

One thing which really would not involve huge costs is changing from a lecture style to an interactive approach.  I think we'd be amazed at the outcomes if public schools all utilized an approach similar to the Montessori method.  I'm not saying that's the "be-all end-all" in education, but there's good science to support kinesthetic or interactive learning.

I suffered in algebra, chemistry, and physics.  I've got some sort of learning disability that simply blurs the equations in the book or on the board.  When I was in the process of earning my pilot's license or seeing the effects of adjusting cross-weight or ride height on a race car- physics suddenly made total sense.  When I worked in the marketing side of the chemical industry, I no longer had to worry about which way the electrons were spinning- all I had to do was explain to the client or perspective client what the compounds would do.  I understand algebra better than ever now because I utilize it in the real world every day.  As a classroom theory for a 14, 15, & 16 year old (Yes, it took me three tries- actually 2 1/2 but story for another day) it was complete nonsense until I found a tutor who could interact with me and make it seem more applied than theoretical.

My daughters really thrived under Montessori.  They found public school largely uninspiring after Montessori, but they did manage to thrive, in large part, to the support they had at home as well as the inquisitive nature Montessori instilled in them. 


Mixing it up is good.  There must be variety to keep the interest.  And your point of algebra is right on - everyone I have ever known has trouble grasping a topic without seeing a correlation to something they can or do use!  Seems to be a human thing....  The teacher that brought it all together for me was 7th grade, Mrs. Cuffel, Eli Whitney Junior High.  There is a picture of her on page 7 of the 1968 Inventor yearbook (after I was gone, but she was still there.)  She showed us the connections to the rest of the world.

Wow!  Amazing how something as small as that can lead down a 'rabbit hole'.  Ending up at the Savoy Restaurant that was SOOO good when I was in high school (downtown), and still is good home cooking, last time I was in a few years ago.  Wish I could get there more often!  But I diverge...off to electron city!!


As for electrons, well they usually are spinning at an obtuse angle (> 90 but < than 180 degrees), oriented slightly northwest to southwest, with about a 14 degree cant to the back. 



"So he brandished a gun, never shot anyone or anything right?"  --TeeDub, 17 Feb 2018.

I don't share my thoughts because I think it will change the minds of people who think differently.  I share my thoughts to show the people who already think like me that they are not alone.

Jammie

Quote from: Tulsa Zephyr on June 29, 2015, 06:57:57 PM
Best one since I first voted in 1972...and I didn't vote for Nixon...(and I'm over 17)... 8)

Hey, you're just a tad older then I am. I was blessed enough to know the first candidate that you voted for since he spent part of his life in my area of the country. I wasn't paying much attention to politics in 1972, but I can tell you that he was a very caring and compassionate person and I've often wondered what would be different in this country if the election would've turned out differently.
Adopt an older pet. Help them remember what it feels like to be loved.

heironymouspasparagus

Quote from: Jammie on July 16, 2015, 12:17:21 PM
Hey, you're just a tad older then I am. I was blessed enough to know the first candidate that you voted for since he spent part of his life in my area of the country. I wasn't paying much attention to politics in 1972, but I can tell you that he was a very caring and compassionate person and I've often wondered what would be different in this country if the election would've turned out differently.


We as a whole are not that caring and compassionate a country.  We are expedient.  

There is no country in the history of the planet that has done as much cumulative good for the world as we have.  And there is no country in the history of the planet that has done as much cumulative bad for (to?) the world as we have.  It seems to swing to whichever side is most expedient at the time.  Follow the money and you will never go to far astray.  Always.



"So he brandished a gun, never shot anyone or anything right?"  --TeeDub, 17 Feb 2018.

I don't share my thoughts because I think it will change the minds of people who think differently.  I share my thoughts to show the people who already think like me that they are not alone.

Jammie

Quote from: heironymouspasparagus on July 16, 2015, 05:55:41 PM

We as a whole are not that caring and compassionate a country.  We are expedient.  

There is no country in the history of the planet that has done as much cumulative good for the world as we have.  And there is no country in the history of the planet that has done as much cumulative bad for (to?) the world as we have.  It seems to swing to whichever side is most expedient at the time.  Follow the money and you will never go to far astray.  Always.


Exactly. We white European descendants have wronged a lot of people and a lot of countries, but I like to think we've balanced it out with the good. Some days I'm not so sure.

About a previous comment stating that race relations have gone down hill. It's something that's always been happening long before Obama was President, but technology has brought it to light. Minorities may have become more emboldened in reporting the things done to them since they can see that there are those of us who care and feel they are equals. Since we voted for a non-white prez, it gave them hope that we had finally evolved. They were silenced and mistreated for far too long. We just had our heads buried in the sand.
Adopt an older pet. Help them remember what it feels like to be loved.