Bartlett: not everyone likes nature, put Restaurant on Turkey Mountain

[AquaMan]

Artist, you are already someone. You've gone farther than I thought was possible with Deco, downtown retail, zoning and museum plans. Very impressive. But like a lot of passionate folks you may be slightly out of sync and lacking patience with people of limited vision and the general population. You're doing what you like and enjoying it. Treasure that.

There are no real friends in business, merely associates, hangers-on and bomb throwers.

I was just lamenting that Tulsa is still led by doctrinaires. We need more balance. More of the thinkers I see around here and less of the party guys.

[TheArtist]

Artist, you are already someone. You've gone farther than I thought was possible with Deco, downtown retail, zoning and museum plans. Very impressive. But like a lot of passionate folks you may be slightly out of sync and lacking patience with people of limited vision and the general population. You're doing what you like and enjoying it. Treasure that.

There are no real friends in business, merely associates, hangers-on and bomb throwers.

I was just lamenting that Tulsa is still led by doctrinaires. We need more balance. More of the thinkers I see around here and less of the party guys.

Thanks Aqua for the compliments and point well taken.  I guess I am still trying to navigate how the game so to speak is played.  I know I got a little hot there, shouldn't have been dwelling on the subject like that.  It's like there are a couple of worlds.  One my "normal" every day one.  And then there is the one where your mingling with "the movers and shakers and power brokers".  In that latter world I am still a gnat lol.  But I can be a loud and sometimes persuasive gnat lol.  And I think it's when I am in that world, right in the mix of it and people are trying to do this or that, that I am a little frustrated and even confused by what I see. 

But looking at your advice I think it is best to perhaps, step back and remember that there are no real friends there, or at least that is not the point so to speak. 

Also reminds me of something I just read in a management/how to influence people book lol.  One thing that seemed to ring true was the comment that...

"You can't manage people, what you do manage is agreements."   

You can't play therapist, or worry about being a friend or not to someone, but what you do have is agreements, and you manage those.

If we were to use that metaphor with the park.  What are the agreements there? or What agreements do we want to have and how do we get them and manage them?

[AquaMan]

You're probably left handed too.

[AquaMan]

I am not happy with the appearance of Blue Rose at 19th and Riverside. If that is what Dewey has in mind then no. It was a rather serene vision when the 19th street café was its only commercial entity. Once they put in the larger restaurant it required larger service areas that are very visible. Box car storage containers, ramps, refrigerated storage, employees cars parked nearby on grassy areas and the underside of the restaurant exposed to help block what had been an evening sunset on the river that was available to anyone from the street. Now that view is reserved for paying customers. Few restaurants of that caliber have their operating side of the building exposed to the public.

It however required little in the way of infra-structure improvement to the surrounding area other than expanding the already clogged parking areas. A restaurant on the "top of TM" will need some work to accomplish.

We are watching the fault line between two generations of people who have different views of development based on their differing concepts of politics, entertainment and lifestyle. The pressure between the two masses of rock are causing heat and rumbling.  My generation felt it during the 70's. Dewey isn't mentally challenged in this respect. He simply represents what has worked during his lifetime and the people he knows who have shared those experiences. They elected him. Their businessmen direct him. If you want to update their vision based on your experiences, you need to work towards getting the new generation elected. There is a city councilor that shares your views and has a business background.....

[cannon_fodder]

Went to Turkey this weekend, there was someone there taking a census of sorts for a graduate program. Hundreds of people, dozens of dogs, dozens of bikes, etc. Not one person commented on the lack of a restaurant in the middle of the woods. Actually, the ones I actually talked to about it thought I was joking.

But this isn't about park users. This is about "investing" in the growth of our tax base. That's the language Dewey and Bird like to use. Investing. So lets look at that. Lots of crappy assumptions probably, but lets do this "investment" exercise.

To have a restaraunt with a view of Tulsa, it has to be on top of Turkey itself and facing the river. Not near 61st. Not near the landing. Those don't meet the stated criteria of on top of turkey and view of Tulsa. To get there, there is at least a half mile of road that needs to be cut through Turkey, likely more because you would need switch backs, etc. But lets keep the math simple, .5 miles.

You would have to clear at least ten acres of land to accomplish this goal (BlueRose takes up just under 4 acres. This needs a new road, parking, restaurant itself, and would be on difficult terrain). An independent restaurant on top of Turkey might bring in $1mil a year in revenue (similar to BlueRose conservative anticipated revenue, per their TIF application). For simplicity sake lets pretend its $100k in sales tax revenue. Let us also pretend that the people eating at that restaurant simply would not have eaten if this restaurant wasn't on top of Turkey, so this is all new revenue.  Of course the City would have to front the land and a TIF would supply the infrastructure funding. We will also assume that the land, as is, provides no benefits to the city or its citizens (no opportunity cost).

So lets find out our return on investment!

- Road: $500k (.5 mile of brand new road, done on the cheap side, but with extra site work required. Somehow we spent $250k in tax money on BlueRose, so this is CHEAP)
- Utilities: $100k (best guess from other utility work requests in Tulsa. Water, sewer, power)
- Land value: $400k (40k/acre, 10 acres)  [even if we don't sell the land, we are diverting it from the current purpose. So from the parks perspective, it may as well be a sale. Simon land was ~40k per acre]
- Parking lot near the restaurant is free... just to keep the number even and conservative.

Lets pretend the actual building will be at the owners expense.

So for fun, we have $1mil in cost outlays for the City of Tulsa.  Five year TIF, covering just this restaurant - 4% cost of borrowing [rate has been between 3-4% for a long time], or $40k per year cost. We bring back $100k in sales revenue, for a net "gain" of $60k per year (pretending, again, that all customers would not have spent money but for...). So of course the TIF can't even really pay for itself. But lets run it out on a straight line for simplicity - it breaks even at ~year 15.  Which  happens to be how long an asphalt road should last before a major full-depth refurbishment. (realistically, on the terrain at Turkey it would be difficult to get a 15 years out of the road because there would be a limited road bed, but lets assume we hit average)

OK, so after 15 years we redo the road, outlaying another $~300k. Pretending we have no other maintenance costs and that this money is not borrowed funds, we add another 3 years to the project cost.

So, if this magical restaurant is finished in Dewey's second term (2017), the City of Tulsa can expect to see sales tax revenue "growth" of 0.04% in 2035. Add 7 years to get to a 25 year investment horizon, and the City would have gained $700k on an investment of $1mil over 25 years. Or an annual rate of return of about 2.1% The average inflation over the long term in the USA is 3.22%. Since 2000 it is 2.4%. SO---- in reality, we expect to lose money on this "investment."

So the City gives up parkland, the citizens lose quality of life, and the tax payers lose money.

It's a win win win!

[Conan71]

Nice analysis CF.

If we can't find a mayoral candidate with better development sensibilities, I might just run as the "Tree-hugginist" mayor Tulsa has ever seen.

[PonderInc]

Cannon:
I like the way you think, but I think your numbers are way off.  What sort of road are we talking about here?  What type of roadbed is needed? How wide is the right of way?  Do trees and brush need to be cleared?  What sort of drainage is planned?  What's the grade?  Are there switchbacks to manage the % grade?  Are there stormwater drains to prevent erosion?  Where does that stormwater go?  How far is it conveyed?

To put this in perspective, the City just refurbished Jackson Ave over by Tulsa Hills as part of the 3rd Penny Sales Tax improvements.  This is a residential street that's about 1735' long.  (About 1/3 of a mile.) It cost $350,000 to refurbish the street.  The grading had already been done, no land had to be cleared, and, as far as I can tell, the stormwater lines were already present and didn't need to be replaced. No work was done to the intersection. The street is basically flat.  And it still cost about $200/foot.

Building a road through a rugged urban wilderness to serve a single business is madness.  Building a road and a restaurant in an urban wilderness also eliminates the existence of an urban wilderness.

This is so insane, I'm almost wondering if Dooey has something to hide and wants to distract the public with a red herring.  I really can't decide if he's that stupid, or if there's something else going on.

[Conan71]

If you want to look at a similar deal with Blue Rose, those numbers are supposed to be available to the public.  Blue Rose pays $1600/month to RPA in rent then 2 to 3% of the annual gross.  I've been told you can get the annual gross from the RPA.

Just curious, how well-utilized is the restaurant at Gilcrease?  I wasn't aware there even was one until I popped off tongue in cheek about having one there.

[Townsend]

Just curious, how well-utilized is the restaurant at Gilcrease?  I wasn't aware there even was one until I popped off tongue in cheek about having one there.

I've been twice for Sunday brunch many years ago.  Good view.



I enjoyed it but I never hear anyone say "I ate at Gilcrease."