538 Poll Predictions

[davideinstein]

Two days before the election Nate Silver was still saying Hillary had a 74% chance of winning.  It's pretty crazy how wrong the polls were, but it's been repeated constantly that Carter was ahead of Reagan by 9% in the week prior to the 1980 election.

Any guesses as to what went so wrong on the predictions?  The unspoken Trump supporters who felt too intimidated to admit they would vote for him?  Did Democrats just not show up because they felt defeated after the primaries?

Midwestern rural/suburban vote that went for Obama (he related to them) switched to Trump.

[Conan71]

Midwestern rural/suburban vote that went for Obama (he related to them) switched to Trump.

Kind of blows the racism angle doesn't it?  I thought that was the whole idea behind pointing out it was white folk from rural areas with less education who made this possible for Trump.

[davideinstein]

Kind of blows the racism angle doesn't it?  I thought that was the whole idea behind pointing out it was white folk from rural areas with less education who made this possible for Trump.

No, the swing voters are less likely to be racist if at all. My attacks are on the core base. Unlikely to relent on that one anytime soon.

[cannon_fodder]

Most Trump supporters are not racist, but most racists are Trump supporters.  I'm not very PC, people say off comments. People make mistakes. Non-racist people say things that could be perceived as racist all the time. But at a certain point, your actions and words really do say something:

When the KKK, Neo Nazis, and Confederate flag waivers all line up behind you with great passion - it says something. When you and your father have both have a reputation of racist rental policies and have been sued for housing discrimination based on race - it says something. When you actively attack the President for his heritage in spite of all evidence - it says something. When you advocate governmental registration of minorities - it says something. When your company is fined for racial discrimination against black people ("When Donald and Ivana came to the casino, the bosses would order all the black people off the floor") - it says something. When you refer to immigrants from an entire country as rapists - it says something. When you repeatedly advocate for the guilt of black man who have been proven innocent - it says something.  When you are quoted as saying "laziness is a trait in blacks" by  your own casino manager - it says something.  When you tell a group of Jewish people "You're not going to support me because I don't want your money" - it says something. When you tell a gaming commission on Native Americans "they don't look like Indians to me, and they don't look like Indians to Indians..." - it says something.  When you are a billionaire who runs and has run many companies and you can't point to a single black or Hispanic executive - it says something. When you call out a Federal Judge as biased because his parents were Mexican - it says something.


Those things all speak to racists, loud and clear. Even if they are a huge list of accidents, slip ups, or ignorance - it speaks loudly to racists. Trump isn't stupid, he knows that. Many of his comments during the campaign were directed to that audience. Whether Trump is actually a racist or not, he was willing to deal with that label if it got him extra votes.  So sorry Trump supporters, racist or not, the candidate was willing to play with that label for political gain.

It's like Hillary and Wallstreet. She was willing to play with Wallstreet when it was in her favor - so she is/was stuck with the label of being in bed with Wall Street. Even if she is, deep down, a Bernia Sanders socialists... too bad. You took the benefit for being a Wall Street darling when it suited you, so deal with it.

[davideinstein]

Most Trump supporters are not racist, but most racists are Trump supporters.  I'm not very PC, people say off comments. People make mistakes. Non-racist people say things that could be perceived as racist all the time. But at a certain point, your actions and words really do say something:

When the KKK, Neo Nazis, and Confederate flag waivers all line up behind you with great passion - it says something. When you and your father have both have a reputation of racist rental policies and have been sued for housing discrimination based on race - it says something. When you actively attack the President for his heritage in spite of all evidence - it says something. When you advocate governmental registration of minorities - it says something. When your company is fined for racial discrimination against black people ("When Donald and Ivana came to the casino, the bosses would order all the black people off the floor") - it says something. When you refer to immigrants from an entire country as rapists - it says something. When you repeatedly advocate for the guilt of black man who have been proven innocent - it says something.  When you are quoted as saying "laziness is a trait in blacks" by  your own casino manager - it says something.  When you tell a group of Jewish people "You're not going to support me because I don't want your money" - it says something. When you tell a gaming commission on Native Americans "they don't look like Indians to me, and they don't look like Indians to Indians..." - it says something.  When you are a billionaire who runs and has run many companies and you can't point to a single black or Hispanic executive - it says something. When you call out a Federal Judge as biased because his parents were Mexican - it says something.


Those things all speak to racists, loud and clear. Even if they are a huge list of accidents, slip ups, or ignorance - it speaks loudly to racists. Trump isn't stupid, he knows that. Many of his comments during the campaign were directed to that audience. Whether Trump is actually a racist or not, he was willing to deal with that label if it got him extra votes.  So sorry Trump supporters, racist or not, the candidate was willing to play with that label for political gain.

Spot on, excellent post regarding the Trump electorate.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Most Trump supporters are not racist, but most racists are Trump supporters.  I'm not very PC, people say off comments. People make mistakes. Non-racist people say things that could be perceived as racist all the time. But at a certain point, your actions and words really do say something:

When the KKK, Neo Nazis, and Confederate flag waivers all line up behind you with great passion - it says something. When you and your father have both have a reputation of racist rental policies and have been sued for housing discrimination based on race - it says something. When you actively attack the President for his heritage in spite of all evidence - it says something. When you advocate governmental registration of minorities - it says something. When your company is fined for racial discrimination against black people ("When Donald and Ivana came to the casino, the bosses would order all the black people off the floor") - it says something. When you refer to immigrants from an entire country as rapists - it says something. When you repeatedly advocate for the guilt of black man who have been proven innocent - it says something.  When you are quoted as saying "laziness is a trait in blacks" by  your own casino manager - it says something.  When you tell a group of Jewish people "You're not going to support me because I don't want your money" - it says something. When you tell a gaming commission on Native Americans "they don't look like Indians to me, and they don't look like Indians to Indians..." - it says something.  When you are a billionaire who runs and has run many companies and you can't point to a single black or Hispanic executive - it says something. When you call out a Federal Judge as biased because his parents were Mexican - it says something.


Those things all speak to racists, loud and clear. Even if they are a huge list of accidents, slip ups, or ignorance - it speaks loudly to racists. Trump isn't stupid, he knows that. Many of his comments during the campaign were directed to that audience. Whether Trump is actually a racist or not, he was willing to deal with that label if it got him extra votes.  So sorry Trump supporters, racist or not, the candidate was willing to play with that label for political gain.

It's like Hillary and Wallstreet. She was willing to play with Wallstreet when it was in her favor - so she is/was stuck with the label of being in bed with Wall Street. Even if she is, deep down, a Bernia Sanders socialists... too bad. You took the benefit for being a Wall Street darling when it suited you, so deal with it.

And once again, I am gonna shameless copy what you said...