President Trump- The Implications

[cannon_fodder]

There is no doubt the economy is doing well.  In the last 8 years we added as many as 16 million jobs. In the last few years we have hit full employment and seen real wages grow.  There is a lag for normal Americans to dig themselves out of the hole the Great Recession put them in, and for them to regain confidence.

Also - business hates uncertainty.  There were numerous projects on hold until the election cycled through. Business now has a decent guess of what to plan for. 

As long as Trump doesn't actually start trade wars the real economy should continue to do well for a good while.  There is a lot of growth in real wages to make up over the last ~16 years of slow or even negative wage growth.  Trump's saber rattling could make outsourcing too risking, which could help wage growth. But an actual trade war would hurt American companies as much as Mexican ones (American companies are manufacturing in Mexico in the hopes of profiting, they can't just walk away from a $2bil plant) and American consumers would be the ones paying higher prices. The "winner" of a trade war still lost a ton of money.

Now, the stock market itself is probably too high (the PEs are getting back to bust levels).  Home prices in some markets are also getting to unsustainable levels again (as a % of household income).  It seems likely that a correction on those fronts is likely.

Longer term - income inequality remains a real threat to the economy.   70% of Americans don't have enough savings to make next months rent payment.  85% have less than $10k in total savings.   That's not NET of debt, that's cash on hand.  Retirement savings is just as bad. Tax proposals would result in large tax savings for the wealthiest, tiny for the lowest (think $20), and a small increase for the middle class isn't going to help the situation.  Killing education funding isn't going to help. And on and on and on.  With < 5% unemployment, bringing jobs back from Mexico isn't a solution either.

Corporate profits are up, incomes for the top 20% have grown well, incomes for the bottom 70% are just starting to beat inflation. No one believes the problem with America's economy is that millionaires are struggling to buy that new Porche and that second vacation home.  Trump and the Republicans are in complete control, they need to figure out how to address the long term shrinking middle class - they don't have the excuse that they were focused on filling in a huge hole.  That's been done.

Probably the best possible situation right now is for Congress to turn on Trump as soon as possible and lets get back to gridlock.  The economy recovered well with the last 5 years of gridlock.   When those asshats in Washington get nothing done, we all win. 

[Cats Cats Cats]

I hear a lot of talk of a recession coming up.  I think the proposed infrastructure spending plans could probably stave it off a few years. There are already Mexican boycotts of US companies. I think they backed off the 20% tax claim for all countries with a trade defecit (Mainly Mexico and China). But it seems like anything Trump has said he was going to do he is pushing for.  I think we will see it pop up in the future again.  Overall it will be a short term boon and then a huge bust if it happens.

[TheArtist]

I suppose I should have clarified one thing.  My "good economy" pretty much means what we have had lately.  Not what we have historically called "good".

There is going to have to be a huge cultural shift in our country, and it can either be really great, or devastating.  It just occurred to me that in some ways Russia is the "poor angry white rust belt citizen" of the world, who does not want to change and move into the future but is clinging to an old economy and ideology.  We have to embrace and take advantage of the new technologies and society that is coming our way.

On a similar note, I was listening to a psychologist talk about how to deal with a narcissist. She said basically you can't fight them or beat them at their own game, and they have yet figured out a way to really help them.  But she did say something quite interesting.  She said they find and point out your weaknesses. They can use this to destroy and defeat you,,,,, or if you are able to step back and away from them, you learn and grow from what they find. Their intent is the former, to hurt or defeat and mold you into a part of themselves, but you can think of them as she said as a sort of "angel" in disguise from which you can learn and grow.  But you have to keep yourself disengaged from them, separate from them, you can't let them suck you into their world. Trump may be like that.  He will find and use our societies greatest weaknesses and faults, its up to us to figure out how to not let it destroy us, but to instead use the pain to recognize and figure out what our weaknesses are and grow from that. Once you do that, you automatically become free from the narcissist.  

Yes she seems a little "hippy dippy" and uses some of that "touchy feely" language, but she does get to some points a lot of other psychologist say on the topic.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRWbonFA5sU

[cannon_fodder]

I found this to be terrifying:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/here-there-and-everywhere/201701/gaslighting-know-it-and-identify-it-protect-yourself

A psychological profile of gas lighting.  It is not directed at Trump, just good/bad timing I guess.  I implore you to read it, and see how many boxes our new leader checks off.  Argue with psychologists if you want, but wow...

Gaslighting is a tactic of behavior in which a person or entity, in order to gain more power, makes a victim question their reality.  It works a lot better than you may think.  Anyone is susceptible to gaslighting.  It is a common technique of abusers, dictators, narcissists, and cult leaders

The article lists the common tactics and explains each of them:

1. They tell you blatant lies.
2.  They deny they ever said something, even though you have proof.
3.  They use what is near and dear to you as ammunition.
4.  They wear you down over time.
5. Their actions do not match their words.
6. They throw in positive reinforcement to confuse you.
7.  They know confusion weakens people.
8.  They project.
9.  They try to align people against you.
10.  They tell you or others that you are crazy.
11.  They tell you everyone else is a liar.

[Townsend]

We are seeing a large uptick in business at my day job.  We are used to a cycle every four years prior to the November elections where business slows down and doesn't pick back up until near or after inauguration day.  It does not really  matter which party is in power, it's just a fact of life in the steam and hot water business and other industries.  That was no different this year.

Regardless of the economy, there's always a need for steam and hot water.  When the general economy is down companies tend to fix what they have or only replace equipment in an emergency.  However, when the economic outlook is good or there is great optimism for the next few years, companies turn loose with new capital spending.  That is what has suddenly happened the last two weeks.

Some of these inquiries and orders are from the terminal and transportation business (think rail and barge), some are oil related, some are food industry, a couple of breweries (I'd expect growth there regardless) and one from a government entity which I was not expecting to see as I think many government agencies are taking a wait-see approach to see what cuts may be coming to their budgets with a promise to shrink government spending.  In particular companies seem to be looking to add capacity anticipating an uptick in business or an uptick in revenue which will pay for upgrading older equipment.  There are also a couple of well-funded new start ups.

These customers, with the exceptions of the new start ups, are all talking about an increase in workflow and orders themselves.  Our vendors are reporting the same.

There certainly has been no time for President Trump's new policies to actually take effect.  However, if corporate management and company owners believe government leadership is friendly to business, they are generally optimistic about the future of the economy and their business.     

It's not just there, we've seen a huge upswing in the online business my wife and I own dealing in vintage motorcycle parts.  55% over this time last year.  Part of that I can attribute to more offerings (about 33% more items now listed on line) so that leaves about 22% in a business uptick I cannot explain in any other way.  I believe this growth is more a symptom of an economy which has done fairly well over the last year.  I'm sure there are some people who have been sitting on their savings who might feel more confident about their job situation with so much optimism in the economy.

I haven't done an analysis to see if our ratio of domestic orders vs. global is up. That would tend to say something is up specifically with optimism in the U.S. economy if that ratio has become skewed more in favor of domestic orders.

I'd also consider that these entities making the orders may be worried that interstate commerce and travel may become more difficult.  (In German accent..."Let me see your papers")

[Red Arrow]

I'd also consider that these entities making the orders may be worried that interstate commerce and travel may become more difficult.  (In German accent..."Let me see your papers")

http://www.wordhippo.com/what-is/the-meaning-of/german-word-ihre_papiere_bitte.html

[swake]

There have been at most 13 terrorist Radical Islamic inspired attacks since 9/1 in the US. At least three of those had mentally ill attackers and that may have had more to do with the attack than Islam, but let's go with 13.

16 total people took part in those 13 attacks.
13 of 16 were US Citizens, 7 of which were born in the United States.
3 were non-citizens, two of which were refugees, one from Egypt and one from Somalia, the Somali attack resulted in no deaths.

Of the 8 that were not born in the US only the Somali and an Iranian were from a country on Trump's list of banned countries. The Iranian had been the US since he was an infant and was a US Citizen.

Country of birth of Radical Islamic Terrorist Attackers including 9/11:
Saudi Arabia - 15
United States - 7
Egypt - 2
United Arab Emirates - 2
Russia - 2
Iran - 1
Lebanon - 1
Kuwait - 1
Pakistan - 1
Afghanistan - 1
Kenya - 1
Somalia - 1

Countries that Trump wants to ban immigrants from (with number of attackers INCLUDING 9/11):
Syria - 0
Iraq - 0
Iran - 1
Libya - 0
Somalia - 1
Sudan - 0
Yeman - 0

He's even denying Green Card holders from these countries from reentering. People that have in some cases been here decades.

What do the countries that he's left off the list have in common? He has business interests there. He's denying war victims, breaking up families and doing it all for show, not really to protect anyone. This isn't just words now, these are real actions impacting people.

Anyone going to defend the Racist Rapist in Chief now?

[Vashta Nerada]

"Fascism should rightly be called corporatism as it is a merger of state and corporate power." — Benito Mussolini

[TeeDub]

Not to disrupt a hate on Trump festival, but you do realize the order he signed doesn't even mention Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen?

The CNN piece I linked to hints to that fact...

The order bars all people hailing from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Those countries were named in a 2016 law concerning immigration visas as "countries of concern."

So much for real news.



Feel free to read it yourselves.Here is a CNN link.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/

[Conan71]

Not to disrupt a hate on Trump festival, but you do realize the order he signed doesn't even mention Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen?

The CNN piece I linked to hints to that fact...

The order bars all people hailing from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Those countries were named in a 2016 law concerning immigration visas as "countries of concern."

So much for real news.



Feel free to read it yourselves.Here is a CNN link.
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/28/politics/text-of-trump-executive-order-nation-ban-refugees/

Why would anyone care about facts?  Innuendo and hysteria seems to be the order of the day.

[AquaMan]

trump set the environment for innuendo, alternate facts, outright lies and hysteria. Not surprising that it will become the pond we fish in.

On a more sobering thought for education in OK, we derive a lot of income from Muslim countries as they send their children to study at our schools and Universities. TU particularly benefits from petroleum students as well as the surrounding community. Nationally it is a 34 billion dollar loss should they feel it is unsafe or unwelcome to do so. Especially if their travel is problematic. They may leave freshmen to finish out a degree but if the choke on Muslims continues within 4 years private universities may start to choke as well.

[ZYX]

Why would anyone care about facts?  Innuendo and hysteria seems to be the order of the day.

I believe the reaction we have seen is quite warranted when people that have built their lives in the United States and been here for some time are suddenly barred from entry.

[TeeDub]

I believe the reaction we have seen is quite warranted when people that have built their lives in the United States and been here for some time are suddenly barred from entry.

Ignore the fact that prior presidents have done exactly the same thing....   

[Conan71]

trump set the environment for innuendo, alternate facts, outright lies and hysteria. Not surprising that it will become the pond we fish in.

On a more sobering thought for education in OK, we derive a lot of income from Muslim countries as they send their children to study at our schools and Universities. TU particularly benefits from petroleum students as well as the surrounding community. Nationally it is a 34 billion dollar loss should they feel it is unsafe or unwelcome to do so. Especially if their travel is problematic. They may leave freshmen to finish out a degree but if the choke on Muslims continues within 4 years private universities may start to choke as well.

Anticipating a $34 billion loss to our economy is nothing but speculation at this point. 

I've read nowhere this is a long-term ban.  IIRC, the idea was to put a moratorium on immigration from certain countries until our vetting process could be reviewed which was anticipated to be 30-90 days.

Meanwhile, no one called Obama a hater or racist while deportations and detentions were up under his administration.  This managed to go mostly unnoticed by protesters in the streets or either it represents a double-standard.

I still can't stand Trump but at least I'm willing to view his actions with an objective eye.

[Hoss]

Anticipating a $34 billion loss to our economy is nothing but speculation at this point. 

I've read nowhere this is a long-term ban.  IIRC, the idea was to put a moratorium on immigration from certain countries until our vetting process could be reviewed which was anticipated to be 30-90 days.

Meanwhile, no one called Obama a hater or racist while deportations and detentions were up under his administration.  This managed to go mostly unnoticed by protesters in the streets or either it represents a double-standard.

I still can't stand Trump but at least I'm willing to view his actions with an objective eye.

Then why are many in his own party calling him out?

https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/825463554937585665

https://medium.com/@JeffFlake/president-trump-and-his-administration-are-right-to-be-concerned-about-national-security-but-its-ebc9d0f71c45#.1sc4xb7g6

http://www.sasse.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2017/1/sasse-statement-on-border-security-and-muslim-nations

These are just three examples.  The problem is that it appears alot of this is being done to benefit his business interests.  Look at the countries he is banning.  Not one of them has an issue with killing via terrorism.  Saudi Arabia however...

And then there's also this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-syria-lebanon-idUSKBN15D0R3

Now, check off how many of these apply and tell me you're not even a little concerned.

https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/fasci14chars.html