President Trump- The Implications

[cannon_fodder]

Conan:

Flynn couldn't have lied to the entire transition team if he was being directed by the campaign to conduct diplomacy with Russia (as he indicates).  But that isn't the issue here.  The issue is if Trump knew Flynn conducted diplomacy with Russia or that Flynn lied to the FBI. That would make the interactions with Comey more problematic, as Trump knew there was something to the investigation he was trying to end (giving weight to the intent portion of the crime).

As far as the Logan act is concerned - contact with foreign governments is expected.  But as far as I know, this is the first instance in which a President elect administration is calling foreign powers to try to conduct live diplomacy (requesting an action or inaction).  I don't know enough to give an opinion on the ultimate legality, but it was apparently enough to serve as an incentive for Flynn to lie about it  Which is the problem.

The Comey issue fairly simple.  If Trump pressured him to end the investigation, we have a problem.  If Trump demanded a loyalty pledge with the intent of hindering the investigation. If Trump fired, even in part, because of the Russia investigation, we have a problem.  It doens't matter if he was incompetent and hated or Satan. Its all about the intent,and unfortunately Trump has opened his mouth a few times to discuss that very issue, and Mueller has the draft documents and correspondence about the firing. 

As far as Flynn "only" being charged with lying to the FBI, that's what reaching a deal looks like.  As long as he cooperates as promised, he can avoid additional charges.  Additional charges can always be brought later.  Prosecutor discretion in this country is very, very powerful.  And there is absolutely nothing unusual about a federal investigation rolling on for 6 months, let alone one of this scale.

[erfalf]

I'm not saying I disagree with you here; I didn't like Hillary at all as a candidate.

However, if getting a BJ in the WH and waffling on what the definition of 'is' is can be an impeachable offense, then how can obstruction of justice not be something impeachable?

I'm just curious how that works.  The political system in Washington (and now filtering down into the states) is broken.  It needs fixing soon.

As mentioned prior, impeachable "offenses" can be very much different than federal send you to prison crimes.

[erfalf]

As far as the Logan act is concerned - contact with foreign governments is expected.  But as far as I know, this is the first instance in which a President elect administration is calling foreign powers to try to conduct live diplomacy (requesting an action or inaction).  I don't know enough to give an opinion on the ultimate legality, but it was apparently enough to serve as an incentive for Flynn to lie about it  Which is the problem.

At minimum Obama partook in this exercise pretty extensively (recall the Berlin/Europe trip). Prior to him I'm sure similar went on. The big thing in this case is that the lame duck president was about to enact some rather unsavory things in the eyes of the incoming administration. My whole thing is, Trump was elected President of the US, not county dog catcher. It is entirely expected for an incoming president to make connections with world powers. That is the level at which he will be operating at least over the next four years. In most people's opinion, he would be neglecting his responsibilities if he wasn't actively managing relationships at this point.

Let's also recall that the termination letter made no mention of Flynn. That is only learned from Comey's hand written notes, that we are only aware of because Comey committed a crime and leaked the notes to a friend. Which to me just goes to further prove that Comey's judgement wasn't adequate to man the post he was charged with. I think the burden of proof here is rather insurmountable barring new more specific information.

[swake]

So it turns out that Papadopoulos was arrested on July 27th and by July 29th had made a deal with Mueller and was a "proactive  cooperator" with the prosecution, which could mean he wore a wire in the months up to his plea deal becoming public in October.

As part of Flynn's deal with Mueller he agreed that he must fully cooperate including "participating in covert law enforcement activities", so how long has Flynn been working for the prosecution? What did he do that was "covert"?

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/04/george-papadopoulos-arrest-fbi-277760

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/michael-flynn-court-filing/index.html

[Conan71]

So it turns out that Papadopoulos was arrested on July 27th and by July 29th had made a deal with Mueller and was a "proactive  cooperator" with the prosecution, which could mean he wore a wire in the months up to his plea deal becoming public in October.

As part of Flynn's deal with Mueller he agreed that he must fully cooperate including "participating in covert law enforcement activities", so how long has Flynn been working for the prosecution? What did he do that was "covert"?

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/04/george-papadopoulos-arrest-fbi-277760

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/michael-flynn-court-filing/index.html

I read about the covert activities part in another article but they also say any testimony from Flynn could be considered suspect since he's now a "known liar".

[swake]

I read about the covert activities part in another article but they also say any testimony from Flynn could be considered suspect since he's now a "known liar".

Trump v Flynn in a "known liar" contest. Think on that.

[Conan71]

Conan:

Flynn couldn't have lied to the entire transition team if he was being directed by the campaign to conduct diplomacy with Russia (as he indicates).  But that isn't the issue here.  The issue is if Trump knew Flynn conducted diplomacy with Russia or that Flynn lied to the FBI. That would make the interactions with Comey more problematic, as Trump knew there was something to the investigation he was trying to end (giving weight to the intent portion of the crime).

As far as the Logan act is concerned - contact with foreign governments is expected.  But as far as I know, this is the first instance in which a President elect administration is calling foreign powers to try to conduct live diplomacy (requesting an action or inaction).  I don't know enough to give an opinion on the ultimate legality, but it was apparently enough to serve as an incentive for Flynn to lie about it  Which is the problem.

The Comey issue fairly simple.  If Trump pressured him to end the investigation, we have a problem.  If Trump demanded a loyalty pledge with the intent of hindering the investigation. If Trump fired, even in part, because of the Russia investigation, we have a problem.  It doens't matter if he was incompetent and hated or Satan. Its all about the intent,and unfortunately Trump has opened his mouth a few times to discuss that very issue, and Mueller has the draft documents and correspondence about the firing. 

As far as Flynn "only" being charged with lying to the FBI, that's what reaching a deal looks like.  As long as he cooperates as promised, he can avoid additional charges.  Additional charges can always be brought later.  Prosecutor discretion in this country is very, very powerful.  And there is absolutely nothing unusual about a federal investigation rolling on for 6 months, let alone one of this scale.

This still baffles me, knowing the Logan Act has never really been enforced, why would Flynn lie about his contacts six and seven weeks after the election?  What kind of trouble did Flynn think he would be in for these two calls or are we assuming the lying charges are in return for not being charged with treason or espionage for contacts with Russia prior to the election?  That's all I'm trying to get to, as otherwise it looks like Flynn lied so that no one would know he was going against a request from the Obama Admin not to meddle in their affairs as they related to Russia.

As far as pressuring Comey not to pursue the Flynn investigation further and firing Comey, again how detailed could this be to take six months to bring an indictment on the POTUS?  You interview Comey, POTUS, and anyone else who may have been a party to any conversations between the two, examine any emails, etc.  I can't see how that takes six months, it's not like Mueller is unwinding 20 years of embezzlement.  If there was something to OOJ charges, I think they would have been brought already.

And finally, It's a safe bet Reagan's diplomatic team didn't convince Tehran to release the hostages in 1981 in a matter of hours of him taking office.  I suspect if we go further back to 1968, Nixon's transition team was probably very much involved in active diplomacy since we had a war going on in Asia.

[Conan71]

Trump v Flynn in a "known liar" contest. Think on that.

I think Trump would lie even when the truth sounds better.


#shitshow

[guido911]

This Bears Ears national monument issue Trump has started is dumb.

[swake]

Tuesday is a potentially very big day in the short history of the Trump White House.

The New York Supreme Court will arguments regarding a Trump motion to stay Summer Zervos' case against Trump for defamation. Trump's team is asking the case to be held until he is no longer president.  The US Supreme Court ruled in Jones V Clinton in the 1990s that a case could be brought in Federal Court against a sitting president. Trump's team is attempting to say that doesn't apply in state court.

Pending this ruling is a wide ranging subpoena against Trump that asks for all documents related to all women who have accused him of sexual harassment/abuse. This potentially could include outtakes from The Apprentice where Trump reportedly talks on camera in very ugly ways about female and non-white contestants. Trump also would be compelled to testify both in depositions and possibly in court about his sexual past with women.

There are reportedly 10-11 more women who are ready to file suit against Trump if the case moves forward.


http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-could-be-forced-to-testify-on-sexual-harassment-allegations-2017-12

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-racist-apprentice-tape-sexist-claims-producer-678944

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-sexual-misconduct-summer-zervos-gloria-allred-727554

[erfalf]

This still baffles me, knowing the Logan Act has never really been enforced, why would Flynn lie about his contacts six and seven weeks after the election?  What kind of trouble did Flynn think he would be in for these two calls or are we assuming the lying charges are in return for not being charged with treason or espionage for contacts with Russia prior to the election?  That's all I'm trying to get to, as otherwise it looks like Flynn lied so that no one would know he was going against a request from the Obama Admin not to meddle in their affairs as they related to Russia.

As far as pressuring Comey not to pursue the Flynn investigation further and firing Comey, again how detailed could this be to take six months to bring an indictment on the POTUS?  You interview Comey, POTUS, and anyone else who may have been a party to any conversations between the two, examine any emails, etc.  I can't see how that takes six months, it's not like Mueller is unwinding 20 years of embezzlement.  If there was something to OOJ charges, I think they would have been brought already.

And finally, It's a safe bet Reagan's diplomatic team didn't convince Tehran to release the hostages in 1981 in a matter of hours of him taking office.  I suspect if we go further back to 1968, Nixon's transition team was probably very much involved in active diplomacy since we had a war going on in Asia.

My first thought was Flynn was trying to keep from the Obama admin what they were doing, which they would not like. However, I have to think Flynn was smart enough to know that he was likely being surveilled considering who he was speaking with. Was Kilsyak someone who would have had any phone calls listened to prior to the recent FISA court allowances? That may explain a lot, and I don't really know the answer. I'm sure Flynn knows how that stuff works a lot better than I do, and he maybe really thought no one was listening. Not sure though.

Conan, consider they bought charges against Manafort that were for activity from several years ago, for something entirely unrelated. Of course, Mueller may have just had some old notes from cases he was working when he was at the FBI.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Thank you for confirming that the whole of the investigation to date hinges on someone lying about something that wasn't illegal and some dodgy money laundering many years prior to the campaign.

It's not obstruction to instruct people beneath you what to do.

Right....you mean like the Newt Gingrich lie machine around Billy Bob and Monica....  Ain't no law against BJ in the Oval office.

[heironymouspasparagus]

It sounds like what a good attorney would say. You don't accuse or charge the chief military officer in this country with a crime unless you are damn sure one happened, and that it ain't some ticky tacky crime.

Really??   Again...??   Like Newt and Billy bob with some "ticky tacky" hanky panky that wasn't even a crime...

[heironymouspasparagus]

As cannon mentioned, there is a difference between impeachment hearings and legal hearings. Filing impeachment charges can and are done for a myriad of things that really can have little base in reality. It's political.

Absolutely!!   Again...Billy Bob...

[heironymouspasparagus]

If you look at Trump's career of paying off unions, politicians, and others prior to becoming POTUS, corruption is second nature to him.  He's lived and worked in a world where this was business-as-usual for him but national security interests generally were not at stake in his dealings.

In this particular case, I really don't see where telling the Russians to sit on ice for another month with the Obama sanctions or asking them to vote a certain way on a UN resolution were akin to starting WWIII.  It's weak, but it's all the Democrats have to go on and it is better than just admitting no one could get terribly excited about a tired, uncharismatic retread who was emblematic of BAU Washington.

Republicans are just as much to blame for helping create an environment where it has now become the norm to keep active investigations going of POTUS' of the opposing party.

Can't "blame" Dems for this investigation - Comey and Mueller are long time, died in the wool Repubes.  Comey actively helped Trump get elected - and see what his reward was...