President Trump- The Implications

[TeeDub]

Just out of curiosity, with advanced computer modeling/etc. how many meteorologists does it really take to predict (poorly in most cases) the weather?    I am curious how many forecasters they had before the proposed cuts (and more importantly, why they had so many....)

Fresh on the heels of the costliest year on record for weather disasters, with economic damages exceeding $300 billion in the United States, the Trump administration has proposed cutting the National Weather Service's budget by about 8 percent. It also recommends eliminating 355 jobs at the agency, including 248 forecasting positions...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/12/trump-administration-proposes-8-percent-budget-cut-at-national-weather-service-reduction-in-staff/?utm_term=.4736c2331c9c

[heironymouspasparagus]

Really?

Your statement

is saying that Trump lying is a causal effect for Amazon to lay people off.

Okay, so you now change your statement to fit. Fine, not gonna lose sleep about it. As for Trump lying, that pretty much sums up every piece of carp ever elected why would you expect anything different?

Lol....you don't understand the concept of a "mea culpa"...??



Guess I shouldn't be surprised given the Trump fervor, rationalizations, excuses...

Perspective moment.  Yeah, they all lie.  Again, it's the "mote in one's eye versus the beam in another's..."  



What is really apparent that despite all his lies, American companies are still getting rid of people and moving to Mexico. 

Even when we are in a state of full employment, an economy that has been growing strongly for years, huge increases in stock market, record low interest rates benefiting real people for a change...all in spite of Trump's efforts to derail it for this last year.  Beat only by Kennedy's and Clinton's in case you are interested in economic realities.

[heironymouspasparagus]

Just out of curiosity, with advanced computer modeling/etc. how many meteorologists does it really take to predict (poorly in most cases) the weather?    I am curious how many forecasters they had before the proposed cuts (and more importantly, why they had so many....)


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/12/trump-administration-proposes-8-percent-budget-cut-at-national-weather-service-reduction-in-staff/?utm_term=.4736c2331c9c

Yeah...why would they need more than about 3...?

[TeeDub]

Yeah...why would they need more than about 3...?

I guess you just enjoy being argumentative.   


I could see nationwide 10-20 per shift on a 24 hour basis, more when necessary (the weather never sleeps.)    But realistically, 2,000 may be a little excessive...  Like most governmental offices, it could probably use a little trimming.   

Maybe not.  Maybe it is just a big conspiracy to hide global warming trends.


The NWS employs over 2,000 meteorologists and HMTs to staff more than 150 different offices across the United States.
https://www.weather.gov/careers/meteorology

[rebound]

I guess you just enjoy being argumentative.   

I could see nationwide 10-20 per shift on a 24 hour basis, more when necessary (the weather never sleeps.)    But realistically, 2,000 may be a little excessive...  Like most governmental offices, it could probably use a little trimming.   

Maybe not.  Maybe it is just a big conspiracy to hide global warming trends.

The NWS employs over 2,000 meteorologists and HMTs to staff more than 150 different offices across the United States.
https://www.weather.gov/careers/meteorology

I think it's more a question of overall scope of work.  Here's what their website says:
--------------------

The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. These services include Forecasts and Observations, Warnings, Impact-based Decision Support Services, and Education in an effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation. The ultimate goal is to have a society that is prepared for and responds to weather, water and climate events.

With 122 Weather Forecast Offices, 13 River Forecast Centers, nine National Centers, and other support offices, the NWS collects and analyzes more than 76 billion observations and releases about 1.5 million forecasts and 50,000 warnings each year. Forecasters build their forecasts with observations from surface stations, weather balloon readings and satellite data that feed numerical weather, water and climate models whose output is analyzed and scrutinized using individual scientific expertise. Forecasters communicate this information and potential impacts to the public, emergency managers, and other core partners to help make decisions that save lives and protect property.

NWS forecasts, warnings, and data and products form a national information database and infrastructure used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. This enables our core partners to make decisions when weather, water or climate has a direct impact on the protection of lives and livelihoods. NWS forecasts and warnings are provided directly to decision makers in local communities, as well as at state and Federal levels, to protect lives and property in your neighborhood and community.

-------------
I assume that virtually all the people that do anything there are meteorologists, and so eliminating them is going to affect the work done.  But I agree, with the advent of enhanced computer modeling, etc, it makes sense that they could trim some fat.  However, given the administration's tendency to want to cut everything "sciencey", I assume the numbers are on the high side as initially proposed.

[Conan71]

I guess you just enjoy being argumentative.   


I could see nationwide 10-20 per shift on a 24 hour basis, more when necessary (the weather never sleeps.)    But realistically, 2,000 may be a little excessive...  Like most governmental offices, it could probably use a little trimming.   

Maybe not.  Maybe it is just a big conspiracy to hide global warming trends.


The NWS employs over 2,000 meteorologists and HMTs to staff more than 150 different offices across the United States.
https://www.weather.gov/careers/meteorology

That's not even counting weather observers and meteorologists in the employ or service of the FAA or armed forces.

[Conan71]

However, given the administration's tendency to want to cut everything "sciencey", I assume the numbers are on the high side as initially proposed.

Are we talking about the Trump administration or the Catholic Church a few hundred centuries ago? 

[heironymouspasparagus]

I guess you just enjoy being argumentative.   


I could see nationwide 10-20 per shift on a 24 hour basis, more when necessary (the weather never sleeps.)    But realistically, 2,000 may be a little excessive...  Like most governmental offices, it could probably use a little trimming.   

Maybe not.  Maybe it is just a big conspiracy to hide global warming trends.


The NWS employs over 2,000 meteorologists and HMTs to staff more than 150 different offices across the United States.
https://www.weather.gov/careers/meteorology

Sometimes.  This time I am being flat out sarcastic/smart a$$.  They do a huge amount of work that few ever get sight of.  And even with the 'misses' there have been huge improvements in forecasting and other prognostications.  And the models they have are (as they should be) being worked on continuously...every once in a while, I hear little tidbits about European models being better on certain events, then ours being better on others.   The trick is to keep refining and making better.  Will they ever be able to tell us to expect an F3 on Tues, 27 Feb, 2024?  I'm betting no.  But I do believe they will get us better - we have much better "guesses" now than when I was growing up.   Even with the surprise popup storms that occasionally happen.  Plus the "bandwidth" is much wider - as in better local/regional diagnostics tools.  Like radar, etc.

And Mesonet is giving us a wide range of information, particularly related to agriculture, that is truly 'light years' beyond a Weather Rock.

I think it is foolish to cut nationwide.  Just as I think it is foolish to cut education in the state.  But that seems to be the Trump Way - kinda matches the Okrahoma Way.


For the scope of what they do - see rebound's comment - 2,000 is understaffed.  That's average of 40 per state.   How many staffers does each of our Congressmen and Senators have?   If ya wanna cut out waste, THAT is the place to do it.


As of 2014, House had over 8,000 staffers.  Senate had over 5,000.  There is your waste - NOT the weather service!
http://www.legbranch.com/theblog/2016/6/17/how-many-congressional-staff-are-there

[guido911]

Another plea deal coming in the Mueller mess. We could be one step closer to President Hillary. Oh wait...

[TeeDub]

For the scope of what they do - see rebound's comment - 2,000 is understaffed.  That's average of 40 per state.   How many staffers does each of our Congressmen and Senators have?   If ya wanna cut out waste, THAT is the place to do it.


As of 2014, House had over 8,000 staffers.  Senate had over 5,000.  There is your waste - NOT the weather service!
http://www.legbranch.com/theblog/2016/6/17/how-many-congressional-staff-are-there

I see what you did there...  Learning from the best, Fox news style...   Divert, deflect.   Don't answer the question or fix the problem, just point to somewhere with a potentially bigger mess.

40 per state?   Still seems high.

[heironymouspasparagus]

I see what you did there...  Learning from the best, Fox news style...   Divert, deflect.   Don't answer the question or fix the problem, just point to somewhere with a potentially bigger mess.

40 per state?   Still seems high.

Yeah, I have learned a lot from Fake Fox News.  Sometimes ya gotta fight crazy with crazy...  One big reason I am a supporter of the NRA.


As for weather service "problem"...  It's not a problem.  Except for maybe not having enough people to do the job that needs to be done.  Rebound covered it very well in his post - I could copy and paste as reference, but it's right there for everyone to read.  He is spot on.

40 per state is "average" - some states have many more, some less.   Like teachers in Okrahoma, they do a huge amount of good for the extremely limited resources allocated.  Small deflection - where else do you see getting more bang for the buck - either public or private??   Or even as much bang for the buck...?  ( I have a couple answers for that, but will wait to see what you think.)

[rebound]

Yeah, I have learned a lot from Fake Fox News.  Sometimes ya gotta fight crazy with crazy...  One big reason I am a supporter of the NRA.

As for weather service "problem"...  It's not a problem.  Except for maybe not having enough people to do the job thata needs to be done.  Rebound covered it very well in his post - I could copy and paste as reference, but it's right there for everyone to read.  He is spot on.

40 per state is "average" - some states have many more, some less.   Like teachers in Okrahoma, they do a huge amount of good for the extremely limited resources allocated.  Small deflection - where else do you see getting more bang for the buck - either public or private??   Or even as much bang for the buck...?  ( I have a couple answers for that, but will wait to see what you think.)

Well, hang on.  My initial post had to do with scope.   As in, my initial thought was "what exactly does the NWS do?".  I mean, I know they do a ton of stuff that is not readily evident to the general public and is used extensively by the state and local weather services.  So, they are (justifiably, I'd say) much larger than most people would initially think they are.

However, even while reading their own words (copied in my earlier post), I have a hard time getting my head around some of the numbers: 
   
"With 122 Weather Forecast Offices, 13 River Forecast Centers, nine National Centers, and other support offices, the NWS collects and analyzes more than 76 billion observations and releases about 1.5 million forecasts and 50,000 warnings each year."

150-ish offices intuitively seems a bit high to me, but again, it's all a matter of scope.  But the number that I can't fathom is the 1.5M forecasts.  The 76B observations are certainly done electronically, so it's just a big number to sound impressive.  But a forecast is managed, at least to some extent, by people.   1.5M forecasts each year is over 4K per day!  That's over 80 per state, per day!  That doesn't make sense.

Which goes back to my scope discussion.  It's hard to discuss required budget when the scope is not fully understood, or perhaps needs to be evaluated to see if some of the duties are redundant with state/local weather services.  Almost certainly,  there is some fat to be trimmed (just like almost all large organizations both public and private), I'm simply concerned that the number to cut was not rationally arrived at.

**OK, calculated the numbers a different way just as I was about to post.  1.5M forecasts, by 150 offices, by 365 days, comes out to about 27 forecasts per office per day.  Which is suspiciously close to one per hour per office.  Does the NWS put our hourly forecasts?  Again, if so, seems a bit excessive.

[TeeDub]

Does the NWS put our hourly forecasts?  Again, if so, seems a bit excessive.

Not sure if this is updated hourly, or is just an hour by hour forecast.

Get your hourly weather forecast from the NWS
https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hourly-weather-graph

[swake]

Can we all agree that Trump is having the worst week ever for a president that didn't involve getting shot or having something like Pear Harbor or 9/11 happen?

And all self-inflicted.

[guido911]

Can we all agree that Trump is having the worst week ever for a president that didn't involve getting shot or having something like Pear Harbor or 9/11 happen?

And all self-inflicted.

Sheesh. What did Trump do now that has nothing to do with being President? Tax cuts not working? He's been indicted for colluding with Russia? Stock market crashing?