Promenade Mall

[Conan71]

I agree. It is interesting how we have been discussing this inevitable collapse of Promenade for years and yet they (seemingly) haven't been very proactive and there's still a massive new retail mall (reportedly) in the works in Jenks. They really need a bold new plan and leadership that will bite the bullet and realize the Promenade format of mediocre experience and dwindling customer base is not sustainable and that online will take even more of the pie in the future. Time to fully repurpose a la Eastland. The best time would've been when it was glaringly obvious to us on here, but the second best time is after years and years of massive reputation hits, closures and slow decline.

This decline is like how the guy in the Hemmingway novel went bankrupt: Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

The retailers who have somewhere to go are going to start leaving or exploring options. Bigger chains are going to ask for discounts to not leave citing lower sales. There's still ~60 places at Promenade so still in the "gradual" phase, but the quality of the tenants is starting to read like a discount mall lineup.

I could be really flippant and say they should have re-purposed to a mixed use development in 1986 instead of re-tooling an outdoor mall or what was a precursor to a "power center" and turning it into something like Woodland Hills.  By comparison, Southroads just to the north went from an indoor mall to somewhat of a prototype of the power center.  That was only 10 years or so after Woodland Hills Mall opened and the indoor mall was still a viable business model.  Turns out, the remake gamble on Southroads was the right direction over the long term.

I'm somewhat surprised Simon is moving forward in Jenks.  With the unstable terrestrial retail environment it seems like a much bigger gamble than it did five years ago.

[SXSW]

I agree. It is interesting how we have been discussing this inevitable collapse of Promenade for years and yet they (seemingly) haven't been very proactive and there's still a massive new retail mall (reportedly) in the works in Jenks. They really need a bold new plan and leadership that will bite the bullet and realize the Promenade format of mediocre experience and dwindling customer base is not sustainable and that online will take even more of the pie in the future. Time to fully repurpose a la Eastland. The best time would've been when it was glaringly obvious to us on here, but the second best time is after years and years of massive reputation hits, closures and slow decline.

The difference between Promenade and Eastland is that Promenade sits on much higher valued land on the edge of midtown.  Yale is a major north-south corridor and 41st is a major east-west corridor.  You have some of the highest incomes in Tulsa just to the west and northwest, and another large pocket of higher incomes following Yale south of 61st.  Add in the decently-sized employer/student base at OU across the street and it's a prety attractive location. 

[DTowner]

I agree. It is interesting how we have been discussing this inevitable collapse of Promenade for years and yet they (seemingly) haven't been very proactive and there's still a massive new retail mall (reportedly) in the works in Jenks. They really need a bold new plan and leadership that will bite the bullet and realize the Promenade format of mediocre experience and dwindling customer base is not sustainable and that online will take even more of the pie in the future. Time to fully repurpose a la Eastland. The best time would've been when it was glaringly obvious to us on here, but the second best time is after years and years of massive reputation hits, closures and slow decline.

This decline is like how the guy in the Hemmingway novel went bankrupt: Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

The retailers who have somewhere to go are going to start leaving or exploring options. Bigger chains are going to ask for discounts to not leave citing lower sales. There's still ~60 places at Promenade so still in the "gradual" phase, but the quality of the tenants is starting to read like a discount mall lineup.

Perhaps the better question is why would the owner want to commit to the huge capital expenditures necessary to convert this dying mall to some other use?  I read recently where some malls had successfully converted shuttered Sear's stores into a number of smaller stores, but that it was a very expensive undertaking.  Any significant conversion of Promenade will be hugely expensive with no guaranty that will it ever pay off.  Why not just ride it out with whatever cash flow it can generate (or offsetting losses for tax purposes) until there is nothing left and then sell the property at a fire sale price?  When you consider that the Dillard's building, like the Macy's building, is not owned by the mall, it is unlikely the owner could sell the mall now for much  more than it could if it was completely empty.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

Perhaps the better question is why would the owner want to commit to the huge capital expenditures necessary to convert this dying mall to some other use?  I read recently where some malls had successfully converted shuttered Sear's stores into a number of smaller stores, but that it was a very expensive undertaking.  Any significant conversion of Promenade will be hugely expensive with no guaranty that will it ever pay off.  Why not just ride it out with whatever cash flow it can generate (or offsetting losses for tax purposes) until there is nothing left and then sell the property at a fire sale price?  When you consider that the Dillard's building, like the Macy's building, is not owned by the mall, it is unlikely the owner could sell the mall now for much  more than it could if it was completely empty.

That sounds like exactly what they will do and are doing... riding the retail wave until the end. That'll work for a while but will be bad for the area and other shopping areas will continue to sponge away their customers. I just hope they do something a bit more proactive than that (even competing to bring in some outlet chains could be better than the status quo).

They don't have to take on the financial burden of renovating. Either sell pieces off or look to sell the entirety of it to someone who does have a vision for it. It seems they aren't committed to making it a nice mall that will survive the impending retail shift.

[DTowner]

That sounds like exactly what they will do and are doing... riding the retail wave until the end. That'll work for a while but will be bad for the area and other shopping areas will continue to sponge away their customers. I just hope they do something a bit more proactive than that (even competing to bring in some outlet chains could be better than the status quo).

They don't have to take on the financial burden of renovating. Either sell pieces off or look to sell the entirety of it to someone who does have a vision for it. It seems they aren't committed to making it a nice mall that will survive the impending retail shift.

I agree it is bad for that area and bad for Tulsa.  Of course, out-of-state real estate investment companies don't much care what we or other Tulsans want or think.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

I agree it is bad for that area and bad for Tulsa.  Of course, out-of-state real estate investment companies don't much care what we or other Tulsans want or think.

True. And even with the potentially massive loss in real estate value, they'll probably still end up far ahead in the deal.

[Conan71]

That sounds like exactly what they will do and are doing... riding the retail wave until the end. That'll work for a while but will be bad for the area and other shopping areas will continue to sponge away their customers. I just hope they do something a bit more proactive than that (even competing to bring in some outlet chains could be better than the status quo).

They don't have to take on the financial burden of renovating. Either sell pieces off or look to sell the entirety of it to someone who does have a vision for it. It seems they aren't committed to making it a nice mall that will survive the impending retail shift.

I call oxymoron on that one

[BKDotCom]

I call oxymoron on that one

Is mother road market a nice food court?

[Conan71]

Is mother road market a nice food court?

Depends do they have Sbarro and It's Greek To me?

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

"Everything's bigger in Texas!"

Some people I know on a couple of other forums actually plan their trips so they can stop at one of their locations.

I read this article and it reminded me of this thread:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/buc-ees-the-path-to-world-domination/

They are expanding their inconvenient store empire outside of Texas. On one hand they're providing a clean place with great food options for travelers, on the other hand it is banking on the culture of excessive consumption and sprawl (although typically built on highways in the middle of nowhere). Also, they pay and treat the employees very well.

68,000 square feet is getting close to a typical Walmart store size (101,000 ft2) and much larger than the vast majority of retail stores. Crazy that they've made this work as a successful chain. I know when I've been, it has added nearly an hour to the trip. That's a long stop, especially when splitting up 1-3 hour drives between Austin, Houston and SA!

[dbacksfan 2.0]

I read this article and it reminded me of this thread:

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/buc-ees-the-path-to-world-domination/

They are expanding their inconvenient store empire outside of Texas. On one hand they're providing a clean place with great food options for travelers, on the other hand it is banking on the culture of excessive consumption and sprawl (although typically built on highways in the middle of nowhere). Also, they pay and treat the employees very well.

68,000 square feet is getting close to a typical Walmart store size (101,000 ft2) and much larger than the vast majority of retail stores. Crazy that they've made this work as a successful chain. I know when I've been, it has added nearly an hour to the trip. That's a long stop, especially when splitting up 1-3 hour drives between Austin, Houston and SA!

Yeah, I'm not their target market. I just spent a couple of weeks driving through AZ, NV, and CA and avoided the large truck stops similar to this. I usually stop at Love's, Pilot/Flying J, and occasionally Travel America. Mainly because I can get in, get gas, go to the restroom and get something to drink and get back on the road. The biggest thing that chaps my hide, and this applies to any of them, is when they are really busy, the people that pull up to the pump and then go inside to take care of business and then come back out and put gas in their vehicle. They tie up a pump for at least ten minutes without buying fuel, and then spend another five minutes actually putting fuel in.

Okay, rant off, back to the normal thread discussion.

[ELG4America]

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/education/tps-seeks-to-move-tulsa-learning-academy-from-promenade-mall/article_3d145e24-a67c-5bd5-a1a2-6474bdaa965d.html#tncms-source=infinity-scroll-summary-siderail-latest

There goes another tenant.

[DTowner]

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/education/tps-seeks-to-move-tulsa-learning-academy-from-promenade-mall/article_3d145e24-a67c-5bd5-a1a2-6474bdaa965d.html#tncms-source=infinity-scroll-summary-siderail-latest

There goes another tenant.

That is doubly painful because that is the type of tenant it needs to transform itself from retail to commercial office and services tenants.

[BKDotCom]

That is doubly painful because that is the type of tenant it needs to transform itself from retail to commercial office and services tenants.

They need to go all in.
Right now it's just a weird dying mall with some other random stuff in there

[DTowner]

They need to go all in.
Right now it's just a weird dying mall with some other random stuff in there

True, although it is hard to blame this one on the mall.  TPS is moving this academy to a school that is being shut down.  It makes financial sense for TPS -  it can expand the program and house it in a building it already owns.  Nonetheless, this sucks for the mall.