Whirlpool Plans $55 Million Tulsa Expansion

[heironymouspasparagus]

I would guess that any declines have reversed and the overall economy is much better than it was 1-2 years ago.  Energy, aerospace and manufacturing are doing well and adding jobs.  I think the recent quality of life improvements (Gathering Place, downtown/Rt 66 revitalization, brewery scene, new restaurants) will bring about even more growth.

There haven't been any declines here or nationwide for about 9 years now.   It is better than 2 years ago.  And that was better than 2 years before that and that was better...so on and so on back to 2009 after Obama got us out of Bush's Depression.   Reality.  Not Trump Lies.



One little example - earlier this year was all the fanfare, hype, propaganda, and hyperbole about how the stock market had gone up almost 25% in Trump's first year.   Yeah, got close.  As compared to Obama's time when we saw the market go up 35% in the first year.  And if you look at the time from when Bush's failed market hit bottom in 2009, it went up over 65% by Obama's first State of the Union speech.  And was up about 250% over the entire 8 years.   

But Trump's first year was nice, too, even if somewhat subdued....never hurts to keep going up!   Then we got to 2018.  And where we are now.   Up what?  About -4%...since SOTU.  Oh, wait...what??  That's not very far up at all, is it?

[swake]

I wonder about our population and income growth.   The national economy has been roaring along but I don't see comparable growth happening here.  Not really much in the way of "cranes in the air" or much housing/population infill.  The Gathering Place doesn't really count, wonderful for us as a promotion point, but it was a donation. There are a smattering of average projects currently underway downtown/mid-town.  Some potential decent projects in the pipeline (will keep our fingers crossed that they happen but as time goes by we are getting closer to the next recession and that stuff being halted).  Even much of the development we do see I wonder how our past tepid population growth has changed now.  Are we in negative territory with population decline... in an economic boom period? What happens when things go bad if these are the good times? Or have things turned the corner and we are seeing more robust population growth? (thing is again, I don't see much in the way of new housing that would reflect any decent population growth).

According to the US Census the city of Tulsa has grown 2.52% so far this decade and now has 401,800 people. And while the city isn't growing very fast, but the metro area is doing better, having grown 5.68% this decade, which actually is the median growth rate for all metro areas. That number can and should be better, but we are far from shrinking.

[Laramie]

Should see an acceleration in Tulsa's 2020-2025 growth

      MSA:  Tulsa, OK -  MSA    990,706    937,478    +5.68%
    Urban:  Tulsa, OK - City     401,800    391,906    +2.52%

MSA will exceed 1 million in 2020; population growth represents 2017est - 2010 census

 

[TheArtist]

If you're looking at the last decade, sure the city grew for early on we had decent growth.  But if you look at it year by year the growth rate has been in steady decline until the last year, and possibly this, when we crossed the threshold into actual population decline.


According to census data, during the period of July 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017, Tulsa shrank by 1,533 residents. 

I don't have the info in front of me right now but I do remember looking at the demographic breakdown for the year before last 2015-2016 when I believe we pretty much at the "holding steady" point, and it was, blacks=same, hispanics up a little, whites in decline.  Then I figured with all the animosity towards the Hispanic community that the next year we might see population decline for the only reason we were growing any population was because of the Hispanic community. 

[Dspike]

Tulsa city (not metro) population estimates each year since 2010

2010           2011          2012   2013             2014   2015            2016   2017
392,403   392,768   394,482   398,294   399,779   403,060   403,333   401,800

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

TheArtist is right that growth was early decade. Unsurprisingly, the low gas prices in 2016-2017 slowed growth. Hopefully the rebound in gas prices mean 2018-2020 are a bit better.

But I was happily surprised that few of the major downtown projects seemed to be put on hold or canceled during that short downturn. Santa Fe Square, the developments near the ballpark, etc. kept moving forward.

[Laramie]

Agree with both of you guys.

Tulsa's growth is more tied to the energy sector.  Lately, you've seen a Tulsa that has moved toward more diversity in the corporate & business sector; hope this translates to a city capable of better handling a recession. 

Never known oil prices to stay down.

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

I wonder about our population and income growth.   The national economy has been roaring along but I don't see comparable growth happening here.  Not really much in the way of "cranes in the air" or much housing/population infill.  The Gathering Place doesn't really count, wonderful for us as a promotion point, but it was a donation. There are a smattering of average projects currently underway downtown/mid-town.  Some potential decent projects in the pipeline (will keep our fingers crossed that they happen but as time goes by we are getting closer to the next recession and that stuff being halted).  Even much of the development we do see I wonder how our past tepid population growth has changed now.  Are we in negative territory with population decline... in an economic boom period? What happens when things go bad if these are the good times? Or have things turned the corner and we are seeing more robust population growth? (thing is again, I don't see much in the way of new housing that would reflect any decent population growth).

As others have said, despite the national economy doing well Tulsa and Oklahoma were in an economic downturn during the oil downturn that slowed a lot of things from 2014-2017. We are just now getting out of that this year so population effects have not yet been realized. Furthermore, population isn't something that should be focused on year to year as much. Overall trends show the metro is growing at a stable rate. Tulsa is more suburban-focused and flocking to the suburbs is still en vogue here. Tulsa did a lot better than other cities from 2008-2012 during the "great recession". The things that stabilize Tulsa's economy during those time can also limit growth during good times because there isn't as much of a rebound. Many had to move for jobs during the oil downturn. Many have had to move here in 2018 to fill new O&G jobs. When times are "good" people tend to flock to higher cost of living areas and when things are not, people move to places with better affordability like Tulsa (There was a huge population uptick to southern states from 2008-2014 and then uptick to west coast/CO since then).

The massive thread "Downtown Development Overview" had some lists of all the projects planned or in process that hasn't been updated in a while but there are tons or projects in or close to downtown with tons of new residential (such as the massive apartment complex at 15th and Riverside). There are what 5-7 hotels have been completed or close to in downtown right now. There's the large building right across from OneOK field and part 2 of GreenArch apartments to start soon. Several big projects underway on Cherry Street or by Utica Square. Tons of revitilization in old neighborhoods in midtown where old houses and buildings are being renovated. There is a tremendous amount of growth in downtown/midtown compared to 10 or especially 20 years ago.

It's easy to take all the stuff we've seen being built/recently completed for granted but getting to this point is pretty remarkable. Downtown is actually lively a lot of times in a lot of areas and feels more like a big city now. The First Friday Art Crawl in the Arts District is tremendous with thousands of attendees. It really feels like a big-city. Those types of enhancements make Tulsa a city people will want to move to. The effects on our overall population haven't yet been realized as those things take time. There's only so much space in Tulsa for big housing developments but there's been tons of those too, especially in the south and east. And large industrial expansions in places like east Tulsa that are adding many jobs. It is tough to overcome the amount of people flocking out of run-down areas in east and north/northwest Tulsa. That is something those numbers are fighting. People are flocking from certain areas to suburbs. The only way to fight that is inward-focused development which has been happening and will hopefully create enough vibrant areas people want to live in the inner city and so the development makes its way outwards over time.

This is just a list of east downtown:

I've done a quick map showing all the changes on the East side of Downtown, it's really rather amazing.



1. Brady Flats - long delayed but still supposed to be built.
2. OKPOP! - finally passed the state house/senate.
3. BOK Foundation Warehouse - rumored to be converted into office/retail mix.
4. Gates Warehouse - retail and KSQ Architects HQ.
5. 120 Brady Village - hotel, office, and retail with underground parking.
6. Holiday Inn Express
7. The View - ARG project, 200 units and 20,000 sq. ft. of retail.
8. GreenArch Phase II
9. Hogan Assessment HQ
10. Bacon & Sun Property - Sagar project so who knows what will happen, dinosaurs might be walking the earth by the time he does anything with this.
11. Hartford Building Redevelopment - Synders project, 90 units, retail (possible grocer), and office.
12. Santa Fe Square - Office, retail, 200 units, and possible hotel.
13. PAC lot redevelopment - Rumored and confirmed from multiple sources. Grocer is likely to be constructed here which might play into the delay of the Hartford building. Other mix of development would be built as well, but not sure the specifics on this.
14. Ross Group HQ
15. Boxyard - Retail in shipping containers, 320 sq. ft. spaces.
16. The Edge - ARG project
17. Urban 8
18. New Elliot Nelson concept (German food) - building permits have been filed and he bought this property several months ago.
19. The Dock - retail and possibly office.
20. Greyhound Station - recently bought by Larsen development. Likely to be redevelopment, not sure what into. Plans are on hold due to legal issues with site 22.
21. Core LLC - likely mixed-use development, it's currently in "concept" stage so this is likely to be a few years out. They have been in discussions with retail consultants. Rumors are also of a retailer buying this land and adjacent Nordam site for a new Tulsa location.
22. East End Village Lofts - delayed by lawsuits.

Another post about what was in process late 2015:

With the Palace Building conversion starting by my count that makes 21 projects under construction in downtown Tulsa right now:

• Tulsa Central Library   5th and Denver   Complete Rehab of Central Library
  Urban 8   2nd and Kenosha   8 Residential for Sale Units
  Avanti Building   810 S Cincinnatti    Reconstruction of Office Building
  YMCA Lofts   5th and Denver   Residential Conversion of former YMCA
  East End Village   2nd and Kenosha   Residential Conversion of Bill White Chevy Dealership
  Harrington's Lofts   7th and Boston   Residential Conversion of former Department Store
  Main and Cameron Lofts   Main and Cameron   Residential Conversion of Former Warehouse
  Hampton Inn   3rd and Cheyenne   New Construction Hotel
  The Edge at East Village   215 S Greenwood   New Residential Building
  Hogan Assessments HQ   NE Corner of 1st and Greenwood   New Office Building
  Mincks-Adams Hotel Building   403 S Cheyene   Residential Conversion of office building on national register of historic places
  Transok Building   2 W. Sixth St   Residential Conversion of hotel on national register of historic places
  111 W 5th Building   111 W 5th   Residential Conversion of office building
  Rehabilitation Center   13th and Trenton   New Construction Rehab Center by Hillcrest Hospital
  Dead Armadillo Brewery   1004  E 4th   Microbrewey in converted warehouse space
  Fox Hotel/Universal Ford Building   Main and Brady   Retail/Residential Conversion
  International Harvester Building   2nd and Frankfort   Conversion to Office Space
  Gates Hardware Building   Elgin and Brady   Conversion to Office Space  and Retail
  400 S Boston Building   4th and Boston   Conversion to Residential
  Palace Building   4th and Main   Conversion to Residential
  Residence Inn   5th and Cheyenne   New Construction Hotel

The site for the 22nd project, The View at Greenwood, just finished demo work and should start very soon. These 22 projects have a total 869 residential units, 230 hotel rooms, 50,000 sq ft of retail and 325,000 sq ft of office space.

Tons of new living units and developments! This is just some of them and both lists are outdated by several years. It excludes the large amount of things going on in Pearl District and Kendall-Whittier. There's far more hustle and bustle downtown and midtown now than there was 10 years ago. Density is going up but infill is limited in some areas by single-family homes. There was a tally posted that they have added close to 2,000 new living units downtown over the last 4/5 years. That infill will overflow, especially as these new projects finish up and downtown becomes more fun and lively. This is a downtown that was practically a ghost town after 5pm just 10-15 years ago.

[SXSW]

Tons of new living units and developments! This is just some of them and both lists are outdated by several years. It excludes the large amount of things going on in Pearl District and Kendall-Whittier. There's far more hustle and bustle downtown and midtown now than there was 10 years ago. Density is going up but infill is limited in some areas by single-family homes. There was a tally posted that they have added close to 2,000 new living units downtown over the last 4/5 years. That infill will overflow, especially as these new projects finish up and downtown becomes more fun and lively. This is a downtown that was practically a ghost town after 5pm just 10-15 years ago.

In addition to the higher density apartments downtown, Pearl and Kendall-Whittier are the areas where infill housing will be focused in the next decade.  New developments along 11th and at 6th & Peoria, the Brewers Block at 6th & Utica and future growth at Hillcrest and TU will continue to gentrify these neighborhoods.  Tying them into a better transit system, either with the 11th BRT or future streetcar, will be important.  

At the same time there are lots of neighborhoods in North Tulsa that will decline and continue to lose population.  Areas that are just north of 244 could start to gentrify as the Pearl and K-W spill over, and Brady Heights is already popular and could grow more as the UCAT land becomes available for development.  I'm talking about areas north of 36th & Peoria over to the airport.  Same goes for some of the high crime neighborhoods east of Hwy 169.  

What will be interesting to watch is what happens to the housing stock in South Tulsa between 44 and the Creek Turnpike.  These are mostly sprawly neighborhoods built from the 60's to the 90's that have a rapidly aging demographic.  Will they turn over with younger families or will those same young families go to Broken Arrow, Jenks or Owasso?  Plenty of young families live in midtown but as prices continue to increase in the most desirable neighborhoods will that be sustainable, and will that allow surrounding neighborhoods like Brook Towne, Hoover, Wedgwood, Turner Park and K-W to absorb those families and keep them in TPS?

[TulsaGoldenHurriCAN]

There haven't been any declines here or nationwide for about 9 years now.   It is better than 2 years ago.  And that was better than 2 years before that and that was better...so on and so on back to 2009 after Obama got us out of Bush's Depression.   Reality.  Not Trump Lies.



One little example - earlier this year was all the fanfare, hype, propaganda, and hyperbole about how the stock market had gone up almost 25% in Trump's first year.   Yeah, got close.  As compared to Obama's time when we saw the market go up 35% in the first year.  And if you look at the time from when Bush's failed market hit bottom in 2009, it went up over 65% by Obama's first State of the Union speech.  And was up about 250% over the entire 8 years.  

But Trump's first year was nice, too, even if somewhat subdued....never hurts to keep going up!   Then we got to 2018.  And where we are now.   Up what?  About -4%...since SOTU.  Oh, wait...what??  That's not very far up at all, is it?

I'm not sure if you're being facetious or not but obviously the things that make the economy go up or down are far outside of the presidents' control.

The economy tanked to such low levels in 2009, it was bound to have good gains in the following years. At the same time, it reached such heights last year it was bound to level out and adjust. The Price-Earnings Ratios on stocks were outlandish and not warranted by actual performance. Much of the last year has been a readjustment on that regard.

All of it, the tremendous gains and horrible losses are results of the whims of a system that is based on trust and power of the dollar whose value is controlled in large part by the chairman of the Federal Reserve. They decide how much the dollars in your bank or 401k are worth and probably have more power than the president overall. Regardless, the system is far larger than any president.

[Conan71]

There haven't been any declines here or nationwide for about 9 years now.   It is better than 2 years ago.  And that was better than 2 years before that and that was better...so on and so on back to 2009 after Obama got us out of Bush's Depression.   Reality.  Not Trump Lies.



One little example - earlier this year was all the fanfare, hype, propaganda, and hyperbole about how the stock market had gone up almost 25% in Trump's first year.   Yeah, got close.  As compared to Obama's time when we saw the market go up 35% in the first year.  And if you look at the time from when Bush's failed market hit bottom in 2009, it went up over 65% by Obama's first State of the Union speech.  And was up about 250% over the entire 8 years.   

But Trump's first year was nice, too, even if somewhat subdued....never hurts to keep going up!   Then we got to 2018.  And where we are now.   Up what?  About -4%...since SOTU.  Oh, wait...what??  That's not very far up at all, is it?

The market hit 6400 in March of '09, it had hit 13K in May of '08 or thereabouts.  Let's be real here, the market had nowhere to go but up Obama's first year in office.

[heironymouspasparagus]

The market hit 6400 in March of '09, it had hit 13K in May of '08 or thereabouts.  Let's be real here, the market had nowhere to go but up Obama's first year in office.

65% increase is nothing BUT real.!!   There has NEVER been an increase like that in 9 or 10 months at any time in the history of the DOW!!   Shows what the CORRECT tax stimulus approach can do in a recession.  And how ineffective everything Bush did for the previous 18 months was - throwing $Trillions at big banks is proven to be the wrong thing....again!


And we are still down for this year.