Predictions in the Mayor's race

[RecycleMichael]

We are close enough to the election day to start thinking about some predictions, but I want to retain the ability to change my mind if a television station shows weekend footage of either candidate at raising their shirt at Mardis Gras or kicking a puppy.

I predict the polling has the race to be very close today. Most of it was probably conducted over the weekend and the only major thing that has happened since then was the exoneration of democrat Kathy Taylor by the republican district attorney.

That has to help her and it made the difference in a couple of people I know who were worried that they would be afraid to vote for her as long as that was still out there.

The only new thing I see for LaFortune is an endorsement from Michael Bates. His copy in the Urban Tulsa had this line "Bill LaFortune has been a disappointment, and his first term largely a failure". Yet Bates somehow endorses him. Way to sing his praise, Michael.

There isn't much time for any new break throughs and I think most people have made up their mind by now. There is always ten or fifteen percent that say they are undecided in any poll and those people are the ones who usually get too busy to vote.

We have only six days left, so any major announcement by an incumbent will be labeled by the media as a pure campaign stunt.

That doesn't stop an incumbent from quickly trying to come up with something and I bet the deal-making folk are just lining up. I wouldn't be surprised if everybody get pay raises, hand-picked folk get promised appointments, citizens get free blocks of cheese and the sheriff gives free rides for jailed criminals to the polls.

The likely voters are heavily republican and I can't see many more total voters than in the election four years ago. That election had 65,000 voters and I predict this time about the same number will vote. LaFortune got around 42,000 to Gary Watts getting about 22,000.

I predict this time both LaFortune and Taylor get about 30,000 and the two independents get only a couple of thousand total. The sudden rise of Faulk may mean that neither candidate gets 50%.