Henry/Askins Gain in New Poll

[Bledsoe]

See:  http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=b63b6c5c-325c-4839-8143-4529794a9a82


Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10316

Geography Surveyed: Oklahoma
Data Collected: 09/21/2006 - 09/25/2006
Release Date: 09/26/2006 11:25 AM ET
Sponsor: KFOR-TV Oklahoma City

Henry Re-elected 2:1 over Istook: In an election for Governor in Oklahoma today, 9/26/06, incumbent Democrat Brad Henry defeats Republican challenger Ernest Istook 64% to 33%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KFOR-TV Oklahoma City. Since an identical SurveyUSA KFOR-TV poll released 8/28/06, Henry has gained 4 points and Istook has lost 1 point. Henry leads by 45 points among women and by 18 points among men, a 27-point "gender gap." Henry leads 11:1 among Democrats and 5:1 among Independents. 37% of Republican voters cross over to vote for the Democrat Henry. Istook leads by only 17 points among conservatives. The election is in 6 weeks, on 11/7/06. Henry was first elected in 2002. Istook is leaving the U.S. Congress after 7 terms representing Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District.

Askins In Tight Fight with Hiett for OK Lt. Governor Race: In an election for Lieutenant Governor in Oklahoma today, 8/28/06, Democrat Jari Askins edges Republican Tom Hiett, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KFOR-TV Oklahoma City. 6 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Askins gets 50%, up 2 points in the last month. Hiett gets 43%, up 1 point. Askins gets 83% of Democrat votes. Hiett gets 77% of Republican votes. Independents favor Askins by 19 points. Askins gets 3 out of 4 "liberal" votes and 2 out of 3 "moderate" votes. Hiett gets 2 out of 3 votes from conservatives. The incumbent Lieutenant Governor is Republican Mary Fallin, who is now running to succeed Ernest Istook as Representative from Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District.

Filtering: 1,000 Oklahoma adults were interviewed 9/21/06, 9/24/06, and 9/25/06. Of them, 795 were registered to vote. Of them, 494 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Interviewing was suspended during the Jewish Holiday of Rosh Hashanah, 9/22/06 and 9/23/06.

1
     Asked of 494 Likely Voters
 Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

[RecycleMichael]

These races are far from over, but Istook doesn't have many options left.

Henry is a good incumbent. He has made friends with the tribes and been blessed to have the oil revenue tax income to accomplish needed projects.

Istook keeps hammering the immigration issue, but Henry has done the right thing by mostly ducking the social concerns and sending guard troops to help with the border.

Like others have quietly mentioned on this forum, religion is also going to be a factor. I am embarassed to live in a time where the religion of a candidate matters, but Henry is a Baptist and Istook is a Mormon and others notice this.

The Republican party has made mainstream religion a factor, and Istook ain't mainstream on this one.

The Askins and Hiett race is going to close before the election. They both have a history of very partisan voting and each will use the other's votes for value to whip up their base.

The Republican candidate (Hiett)will gain in the polls, but only if he can raise big money to get out his message. I think Hiett was hurt by having to spend so much in the primaries and his cutting a budget deal with Henry cost him some fundraising ability in his own party.

I think Henry wins because he has proven to be a governor who can work with both parties.

I think Hiett and Askins will come down to whomever can pull the biggest negative on the opponent. Those kind of campaigns don't have a winner.

[StanOU]

Well stated, Mike.  

"Henry is a Baptist and Istook is a Mormon and others notice this."

Istook has been very careful to not volunteer this basic fact.  To look at his website you would never know he is a Mormon.  He has gotten a lot of outside funding from GOP sources in Utah, at least when he was in Congress.  

As for the immigration issue, Istook has a lot of questions to answer since immigration law enforcement went extremely lax on his watch.  

Hiett's campaign is sucking wind in terms of money right now.  Askins has a much broader appeal.  The concern for the GOP is not how many Democrats vote this year, but how many Republicans don't or worse, vote against their own party.  Nancy Riley jumping ship sent them a rather disconcerting message.  

[RecycleMichael]

Here is the Tulsa World endorsement of Brad Henry...

Incumbent governor deserves re-election
Gov. Brad Henry has served superbly during a tumultuous time in Oklahoma politics.

Henry took office in 2003 facing one of the most severe budget problems in state history as a result of Oklahoma's economic downturn. His experience as a legislator helped him cope with heavy reductions in state government at the same time he dealt with a Legislature that became increasingly rancorous as the political parties fought for control.

Through thick and thin, he has been unfailingly cheerful and optimistic, his pride in Oklahoma expressed in every public appearance. He is proud to be the governor of Oklahoma. That attitude has been a big factor in raising Oklahomans' spirits.

He quickly recognized the importance of dealing with the Tar Creek environmental disaster caused by decades of lead mining centered under Picher in northeastern Oklahoma. Despite the budget crunch, he directed state money toward relocation of families with children exposed to lead poisoning there. Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma's senior U.S. senator, has focused federal efforts on the Superfund site, and it appears that Henry's and Inhofe's efforts will ultimately remove all Picher area residents from harm's way. Tar Creek had been  

largely ignored by elected officials for more than 20 years even as the Environmental Protection Agency poured $120 million or more into Band-Aid programs there.

Henry dealt with a divided Legislature in a nonpartisan manner and justifiably claims many accomplishments. His work on compacts with Oklahoma Indian tribes has resulted in millions of dollars in additional money for education and health insurance.

He successfully sought more money for higher education and pushed through significant raises for teachers. He brokered a legislative agreement on tax reductions. He pledges to continue to work to improve education, corrections, and health services.

When Henry took office, the Constitutional Reserve Fund, known as the "rainy day fund," was depleted. Henry led a successful effort to make it more difficult for governors and Legislatures to use the fund except for budget shortfalls and true emergencies. He wants to put more money in savings to protect against the budget crunch he faced in 2003. That, and other governmental reforms are among his goals for his second term.

He is opposed for re-election by former U.S. Rep. Ernest Istook, who has simply not made a convincing case to voters why he should be elected governor.

Henry has served admirably. We think that one good term deserves another.

Oklahomans should not hesitate to return him to office for another four years.

[RecycleMichael]

Here is the Tulsa World endorsement of Jari Askins...

Lieutenant governor choice is easy
Jari Askins' ability, experience and integrity qualify her to be lieutenant governor of the state.

A 12-year veteran of the Oklahoma House of Representatives, she has always been accessible to her constituents and a ready listener to citizen delegations from all parts of the state. A Democrat from Duncan, she is running against Republican Todd Hiett of Kellyville.

The primary job of the lieutenant governor is to be prepared to be governor. Askins is prepared. An often overlooked part of the job is that under Oklahoma law, the instant the governor leaves the state, the lieutenant governor becomes governor. He or she has the full authority and power of the office during the governor's absence from the state.

Oklahoma history is replete with instances in which lieutenant governors have attempted to take advantage of this fact. A governor needs the cooperation and help of his lieutenant governor. Gov. Brad Henry is supporting Askins because of her qualifications but also because he knows and trusts her.

As Speaker of the House, Hiett hardly made a move that was not political and all parties regard his expensive run for lieutenant governor as part of his campaign for governor when  

Henry leaves office in 2010. Is there any doubt that if elected lieutenant governor Hiett would take every opportunity to use the office to his advantage?

Askins might also have gubernatorial aspirations, but her political allegiance to Henry makes her a partner who will work closely with the governor. "I think Governor Henry has set an excellent example of what can be accomplished when partisan interests are set aside. I'm proud to have been part of that team effort and I want to continue it," she said.

Askins served eight years as Stephens County special district judge. She has been chairman of the Oklahoma Pardon and Parole Board and a legal counsel to the governor. She is the first woman to become Democratic leader of the House where she is term limited.

She has won numerous awards for her legislative work for education, health care, law enforcement and business. Askins has been involved in most aspects of community life in Duncan. She has been honored by the Duncan Chamber of Commerce and is a member of the Oklahoma Women's Hall of Fame and the Duncan Public Schools Foundation Hall of Fame.

Jari Askins is easily the best choice for lieutenant governor.

[Conan71]

Honestly, I don't see the need to change leadership in OKC.  The only things I can see that the far right can complain about is the lottery and gambling, and far as I can tell, it's helped state revenue.  

I quit smoking after the new tobacco tax laws took effect, I don't visit casinos (well only out of curiosity and to do research for a book I'm planning[] ) and I only play powerball when the jackpot is too good to resist.  Those are all "voluntary taxes".

Something about Hiett is just too weasily for me, so Henry and Askins can count this Republican's vote.

Personally, guys like Istook drive me further to the middle.

[RecycleMichael]

Henry and Askins sure don't fit my stereotype of politicians. They aren't real polished or good-looking. They don't speak like a preacher or sell like a car dealer.

They just get the job done.

I am voting for Brad Henry and Jari Askins, too.